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Morning all,
Long time no speak! I think ADV failure at Buffalo will put pressure on TL gov - its another potential income source wiped away. As others have mentioned - its now or never if they want a budget for the next decade.
Maybe we will see some of the guys from ADV that are 80% down moving over here, hoping for high reward on what they have left? We have proven reserves - and likely much more.
Good day to all! :)
I think you could be right PG. I sold my BOIL stock a little while back, purely because I needed the money to invest elsewhere, taking a risk that good news wouldn't arrive in the meantime.
I am itching to get back in and be there when this goes through the roof. GLA.
Lot of people justing on ADV this morning 850 trade so far and a lot of them blue..
Buffalo and Bayu both chasing reserves main reservoirs depleted, always a band aid
for the Islands finances , said so, included in the projection for SPW Fund running out
by 2028-2030 based on them actually getting projected 30mbo/e extra out of them
Chuditch shell figures 850mbo/e possibly 2000 across the whole license , not just
the part Baron still playing snail paced catch up on 3 tcf
Sunrise 1500mboe , 8 TCF and 250mb condensate
Kelp 14.5 TCF plus condensate , 2300+ mbo
All back in action would fund the Island for decades, with a potential 7000mbo/e
V their 30mbo band aids
As its been for over 20 years , ALL down to the ISLAND to make it happen NOW
Fingers crossed they do a combined SundaGas (now Baron owned) presentation
as they did to set the ball rolling for SG Chuditch and the bid round in Nov 2019
and KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
Chuditch , Sunrise and Kelp go from current stranded $0 value, to worth $50 - $100
Billion value in operation. GLA
;))
l8trs
Re Buffalo another UK company involved.
"Petrofac’s Engineering and Production Services has been awarded a drilling management services contract by Carnarvon Petroleum for latter’s Buffalo redevelopment, offshore East Timor in the Timor Sea.
The agreement covers planning, detailed well design, drilling execution and all related procurement project.
This work will be managed by Petrofac’s Well Engineering group in Perth, Australia, following a competitive tender process."
Apols. -just noticed that is rather old news.
We have a presentation PROMISING stuff NOOB
But until the Island build facilities or finally after 20+ years permit GAS to go
elsewhere, its all mute
Bigger fish like Shell etc , have said we are going to pipe to Darwin and are going
to FLNG on site and the Island has told them to F off , no you are not
The bid round started in Nov 2019 with a big SundaGas/GGP presentation with the
TL Ministry to kick start their own Industry, it included the out of the blue award
of Chuditch to SG (NOW 100% baron)
Hoping for a similar Joint SG/Gov announcement like that day to
finally KICK start the stranded gas fields and boost the bid's
Recent article said 9 bidders ( 18 licenses) and 4 others being reviewed
not much of a return for 2 and 1/2 years of bid round in progress
With 2 extensions and 3 world promotional tours , taking in places like
Dubai , Paris , London and Houston usa
Only the Island can breath life back into it, nobody else. GLA
:))
I just can’t understand with all the proven results of what lies in TL why there isn’t a huge influx of investors… if it just hinges on TL giving it the nod
What are they actually waiting for? It’s there… they’re going to get paid huge money got someone to do the graft and absorb the costs in getting getting it out… they’ve been sat on in 20 years… I know She’ll have been and gone - But why would they just leave it, knowing it’s there… and others knowing it’s there … to just sit there?
It makes no sense. The only thing that makes sense is that whoever the sausage is that needs to give the green light should stop swinging their d*ck about and get cracking then we all make some doe! £££
Chop chop. The CEO of ADV has fully had my pants down and rammed me bareback this week!
GLA
The way I see it... it's an untapped gold mine, fully approved by a super major.
Just a nod in the right direction will send me scrabbling for my climbing boots and oxygen mask...
Noob
we have never had to wait for the bidding round to close, always been available
Nepotism , related Dr Buttlers on Baron and SundaGas, went for an immediate
RTO after the 2019 award to SG, Failed we could not raise the money, ended up
taking 33% SG / 25% license (tells a story in itself) and that was promoting with
Shell's 5-10+ TCF potential around the CH-1 Discovery well plus shells additional
leads , suspected either Oil or large condensate reservoirs to the South West
The Mexican standoff as you put it has always been the Islands dream of Tasi Mane
project , Bettano Oil refinery (pre dream and extended/refurbished) and Beaco
a large scale multiple string GAS LNG Export facility with an additional Import
string to feed the to be converted to Gas power stations on the Island.
The basis, previously being first production at Beaco from the ready to go Greater
Sunrise field (Greater ref's the Gas and the nearby large condensate Troubadour
reservoir, which is why Shell suspected similar to the SW of CH-1 well)
It was discovered in 1974 and still WAIT's, despite Australia bending over backwards
to get it moving, straddles the NEW internationally recognised and ratified TL maritime
boundary in 2018/19
Was assigned 50/50 , since OZ has been to the table and stated , we will not drain Sunrise
from our side, no new license will be issued that could access Sunrise their side of the
border, then later tabled a 70/30 revenues and taxation split in favour of the Island if
processed in Darwin/OZ (Two years ago and ratified last year)
The TL delegation leader , walked out of the signing ceremony , stood on the steps
and announced with great delight Sunrise will be processed on the Island as they
had now secured (the other side of the 70/30 deal ) 80/20 if process on TL
That is what the Industry have had to deal with, so hard ball on a 50/50 , the rest
are all 100% TL fields , nuff said
Bayu-Undan the only Gas that has flowed since independence 2000/01, like
Chudich and some others an AUSTRALIAN license, locked in the disputed
JPDA (the whole stretch of that part of the Timor Sea Indonesia-TL-OZ)
It all melted down , force majure , international courts etc, Chuditch defined
inside the official TL region just and changed to the new license designator
on issue to SG
Bayu an Australian operation with its advanced field and own pipeline came under
TL and that golden goose they did not kill , all connected up and has been the
primary source of funding to the Island ever since
The sudden , presentation hosted by SG/TL Gov and GGP , to kick start the bid
round and set the ball rolling with a surprise issue of Chuditch to SG (Now 100%
Barons) in Nov 2019, came off the back of a recent announcement , that BAYU
would be DEPLETED by 2021
Hence the 3 drill program last year chasing a couple of pockets of possible 30mbo/e
reserves
They know time is running out to either put up (build beaco) or shut up
As Benny said it is an untapped Gold plated Gold mine
the whole TL Maritime area is on trend with Dozens of other large Gas and usually
smaller scale oil fields on both sides of its border , Indonesia and OZ, they have
drilled their side to death, while TL waters have stagnated with 5 known Gas fields
3 biggies we all know and a couple of early stage finds (could be big)
All the big boys left and the majority of its waters UNEXPLORED, including Area P
in the bid round , it sits between Sunrise and Chuditch licenses and thought back
in the day (pre all the prob's) might be the Kitchen area that feeds both and prob
more in that area.
With the proven fields littered across the entire Timor Sea, the Industry know the
11 new offshore licenses in the bid round (18 in total) should all also be similarly
gas charged and more Kelp 14.5 tcf , Chuditch poss 10+ Tcf , Sunrise 8 TCF +250mb
condensate , likely waiting to be discovered
Yet after 2 1/2 years of bid round they state the other day we have 9 bidders and 4
under review, not a big return for such a twice extended round, with 3 world tours
presenting what is on offer.
for perspective Nigeria held a bid round concluded last year , it had 57 licenses
up for grabs , had almost 1200 bidders and 161 companies given partial awards
and remember Sunrise also a large license was originally a team of 4 , 3 majors
and city gas supplier OSAKA
As it has always been , down to the Island , to BOOST the sectors interest with
ACTIONS not Dreams.
This is my concern. For all that I’d there… why such low interest from the bid rounds…
20+ years of mistrust on both sides , the Island fought for independence
got it from Portugal , to be invaded by Indonesia 3 days later in 1975
UN peace keeping force entered (mostly Italian hence ENI assoc with TL)
The revolutionaries that took power back in 2000/01, stated we do not need
the outside world , we can do it all ourselves , with our own resources etc
one of them actually had it written into law after a speech in parliament
THE ALL ON THE ISLAND THING
Then all in the JPDA , joint petroleum development area basically the disputed
area all went into force majure and the courts , the spy scandal etc etc
Industry in the area , like Shell operator of both Sunrise and Chuditch at the time
wanted to do things , build southerly pipe to intersect with the Bayu Darwin line
then invented the 26/28 wellhead Super-Barge FLNG specifically for the area , to
be built in Korea 2008/09 at each turn , the Island blocked them and others.
So they left, hence Kelp with 14.5 TCF has neither Operator or a license currently
and is as big as both Sunrise and Chuditch put together
So we have the Island wanting its own up down industry , manned by locals
mistrust of the outside world and the Industry hesitant due to what has happened
since independence, not wanting like shell with customers for sunrise gas to
commence in 2003 , jv within the jv Conoco to California/New Mexico sales
falling over (plan pipe to woodside darwin facilties)
Made new arrangements and proposed the FLNG option in 2008/09 again to
be denied those sales , deemed at the time so good , Woodside also took as
a first option , over its own now built Darwin facilities , Conoco again lost its
sales and customers, had enough and Shell opted to leave with them, others
followed.
Only the Island can rebuild , trust and movement with the players they covet to
return, no more , we want , without action , no more our way, or the highway
Over 1500 attendees at the last TL oil and gas conference , 42 IOC , 229 other
regional industry companies , so the interest is HIGH, if things progress to a
positive stance on Monetisation of Gas and future discoveries
The ISLAND even stated at that conference , WE WILL NOT INTERFERE, you are
the experts (positive) but the only statements since have again been WHEN
we build Beaco on the Island
They have a simple task , stop talking, get a funder, break ground and build it
after decades of talk and failed attempts to get Beaco funding/operator
OR stand up and state , do what you want , just send us our cheques promptly lol
or the Industry will remain wary of being like others , big finds , money spent and
left frustrated by a dream for their own , locally manned ,employment industry
thrash it out with the players and get the job done, imo as said a few times , I think
that news is imminent and must come well ahead of the bid round closing. GLA
:))
The new studies for Beaco , based on combined development and gas feed
to the plant , using Kelp , sunrise and chuditch from the get go , announced
early September.
All passed muster last time the longest taking just under 6 months, it is now 4 1/2
months since the announcement, so imo those results are DUE NOW
They should pretty much all be tweaks of the previous CAN DO studies , the 1 main
difference being the Beaco build, with 3 fields will need more than one string to be
open on commission of gas flows from the proposed Sunrise HUB all will feed into
The original was build the first one for sunrise then keep building 3-4 strings in total
as if/when required
As said , just a bit of tweaking to plans that already existed, 4 1/2 months should have
been ample time for them to be tweaked and reviewed by the TL Gov to announce
new tenders , looking for funders/operators
Or that process could already be going on behind closed doors, with parties like the
China BRI approached in the past
Tick , Tock , Timor Leste is on the clock
Baron Oil on the starting block
Fingers ready and like Linford Christie and Usain Bolt would say, go on the B
of the
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
;))
Noob
also plenty of seismic already exists for Chuditch , Shells own 2d , regional surveys
by gov and the 3d kyranis done in 2012/13 which is now being snail paced again
using psDm vice psTm processing
Spoiler alert , Chuditch on all of them and successfully drilled the CH-1 well , the only
doubt that remained as shell said in the 90's they believe Chiditch , Bilby and Wombat
(renamed Chud North and South West by SG) ALL linked and one giant gas field
If so their preliminary just over 5 TCF (850mboe) would double, the problem was the
Timor Trench itself , plates rubbing etc , causes a lot of natural heavy vibration which
interfered with the seismic, depth perception and ghosting
The psDm might just confirm that long standing theory, snail paced by Baron as be it
when we used shells figures for failed rto of SG 2 years ago or the more recent one
side of the license CH-1 Drill area , Baron now 3 TCF, without that big partner and
movement its no big deal , as said Kelp sits with 14.5 TCF no operator/license
we could say its double and nothing has really changed
Shell said in the 90's we think its 10 tcf+ or at least as big as Sunrise which ended up
8 TCF plus 250mb condensate or 1500mboe and it remains on Woodside books at $0
Should give us a bump if it does but the 50-100 Mega Multi Bagger as always remains
in the potential to monetise ($50-$75 Billion)
l8trs
Hi HFB. Thanks for your reminders of the ultimate prize, potentially available. Please advise when the current bid round is scheduled to close. The financial disappointment following the drill failure by CVN/ADV, in conjunction with the devastating tsunami in near-by Tonga, must surely be concentrating the minds of the TL policy-makers.
Many thanks. miidas
https://timorleste.un.org/en/sdgs
14.23
Good question Midas.
I also see the SDGs as per above as something that the gov and political leaders need to satisfy. Together with the SDP, it all has to fit together with the political will harmonising with the need to finance themselves through the long term never mind just 2030.
GS
Bid round closure - March 4th 2022. Not long now to wait! Thank you HFB. miidas
bid round already extended twice since opening Nov 2019
they cant afford to wait until the last minute.
IMO announcement soon and ideally with our presentation 26th
of this month
l8trs
im praying guys on this one - this is a ethical investment so all my prayers will be anwered hopefully
18.28
Thank you HFB. Good to see reference to Strategic Dev Plan document in your link. Great to see such a small poor nation setting an example to the world. I am truly humbled by their professional approach. Lets hope it goes really well for them.
And thank you for your valuable knowledge.
GS
My thought is why would a major make a deal for part if Chuditch if they can drill there own 100% owned license from the latest round? Surely they can do their own seismics very quickly, 1 drill and they are at the same position we are at?
Mapped , drilled and discovery well by Super Major Shell , its a jump start on
virgin territory , quick development and subject to the P word from the Island
a lot quicker into production
As keep saying the seismic's all done , TGS did the entire 50,000 sq km all on
offshore in its new 2D Cubed format (presents like 3d) using every historic
seismic available including our Kyranis 3d
Been available from them (see their website) , was promoted in the 25th March 2021
TL Oil and Gas conference with additional seismic available from gpp and a data room
set up by a UK firm for all potential bidders to view, paid for and arranged by ANPM
The one they should have had hundreds of bidders for is Kelp, on one of the licenses
in the bid round, it currently has, neither license or operator and last estimated GIIP
was 14.5 TCF (the no home factor) and now with Sunrise and Chuditch part of the
new plan for Beaco joint development and production
IF they can get it off the ground this time (announced Sept 2021, if you have a subscription
full article was also in UPSTREAM ONLINE 9th Sept)
off the top of my old bonce , that's all for now , enjoy the rest of the weekend
days to news getting few, 26th hopefully has back up from the Island , otherwise it's
like shell , we hope to pipe to darwin 2003 and we hope to flng in 2009
:))