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Good to be back on shore again :) How's everyone? Turns out my 4 week trip was a 7 week trip! Looks like Baron and SundaGas are ticking along in the background nicely.. and biding time! SP won't budge, but there isn't much reason for it too at the moment I guess. Patience..
Hope everyone is ok!
Still here, just with very very poor internet offshore, West of Shetlands! Talking to the guys here (client is Super Major from Big 7) about BOIL and in particular the seismic re-processing. A lot more to it and alot more value to SundaGas and Baron with it being re-processed. The reprocessing of the data actually doesn't take that long, initial QC within days and weeks under normal circumstances for results.
What does take time is careful planning and consultation of the data. They need to maximise the potential of the the various prospects and present a fully audited geological analysis to potential JV partners. Identifying locations that maximise reward but minimise risk over the entire field. Saying 'Shell found this over 20 years ago and drilled it - it's proven' isn't enough. SundaGas and Baron need to prove they are not there for a 'free ride' - which they aren't. Reprocessing is all about valuation of the assets. The more evidence they can present, the lower % they will have to sacrifice in a JV, or the higher price they can demand in a buy out. Chuditch looking at over 3TCF is huge - to put it in perspective, Morecambe Bay Gas Field is 7TCF and supplied 15% of domestic gas in the UK while at peak production.
SundaGas is built from Phd, Oxford and Cambridge geologists, mainly ex-employees (including the founder) of Mitra Energy (Now Jadestone). Jadestone has flowing wells and a strong position. The SundaGas team also have proven experience of negotiating highly successful JV agreements at Mitra and previous positions. I believe they are biding there time with regards to TL position on processing of petroleum assets, anticipating and discussing with there partners at TimorGap.
RNS and Allenby Capital report both focus on Bayu Undan depletion and the need for backfill for Santos to Darwin. TL is suffering with funds running out and recent flooding, their economy is crippled. Advanced Energy commencing drilling with Carnarvon near Bayu Undan in TL license area. The focus has always been on Greater Sunrise going to TL for processing, but that doesn't necessarily mean Chuditch aswell by association.
The sovereign petroleum fund relies completely on Bayu Undan. Santos biding time for Chuditch or Greater Sunrise to come online with its new backfill drilling phase of 3 wells. Advanced Energy and Carnarvon drilling nearby. Chuditch showing great potential, 100km from Darwin pipeline. The area is slowly opening up, if not for TL to say so. IMO its only a matter of near future time for Greater Sunrise. Perhaps GS is personal for TL, after the bugging scandal with Australia Gov and Woodside over border dispute.
A strong buy from me always. Had a top up last week at .075
Will probably be a while before I post again but hope everybody is well and good fortune to all and your investments. Looking forward to getting home and digging more into this! :)
Also to add - IMO I think BOIL investment in the area is maybe a pre-emptive strike on further news about unlocking the region.
They have invested while it is 'stagnant'. A risk - yes. Except the directors and major holders don't like risk so there must be something somewhere they are expecting :)
Drawing from my research so far it seems that the industry is still expecting / hoping this to go to Aus or Floating LNG.
New government in TL replacing previous TimorGAP boss.
TL realisation that the Tasi Mane plant is un-economical (billions cost and technical issues)
TL limited cash reserves for O&G and other projects.
TL Realisation that now is the time to develop ASAP before world moves towards renewables.
IMO Woodside writing off Sunrise is theatric to put pressure on TL. I think both sides are digging heels to get the best deal.
BOIL invested 85% in SundaGas partnered with TimorGAP knowing the current situation. SundaGas will have been in discussion with them regarding future.
Allenby Capital Report for January and April 2021 predicts best outcome will be Chuditch to Darwin LNG or Floating LNG via a JV with Santos. Little mention of risk however.
Tasi Mane won't be completed before 2030. Not even a shovel in the ground currently. New Government and Management of TimorGAP tells me a wind of change. Maybe not a complete scrap of Tasi Mane but a system where initial production via floating LNG at Sunrise to kick start? Just a wild guess? Who knows. :)
TL needs to figure this out while they still can. Its 20 years too late currently, now is the time!
Not far from you. Currently in hotel isolation prior to flying Shetlands tomorrow. I'll be West of Shetlands on a dredging project, deep water. On a supply converted construction vessel so internet will be poor especially with rough swells!
Hence my GF will be looking after the investments! Eeeek
I was in at 0.068 originally then took in at 0.09 and 0.12 heavily as I had to leave for offshore work so no guarantee of buying more whilst working and handed over to my partner, I wanted to be in it as it looked like the SP could go anywhere (as it does now). As said, its med-long term and I'm unconcerned by daily changes in SP. A hint of news in Seismic, Regional movement, JV etc will be enough to keep this going :)
Remember SundaGas are partnered with Timor GAP on Chuditch. BOIL earn in to 85% knowing this. Essentially BOIL now partnered with Timor GAP. Regardless of how the field is processed, BOIL would have identified risk of no processing before investing heavily in earn in. They certainly know something with there partnership and they don't seem to be to concerned :)
Remember that SG are partnered with Timor GAP,
SpecP - not to worry, my average SP is just over 0.11, with over £6k altogether.
I'm not worried one bit. This is one to sit back on and watch it unfold, not a quick win. Even small pieces of news will set this off, maybe not over 1p on anything but a JV (then we're talking mega bagger), but depending what you put in, enough for a tidy profit. :)
Again just look at it. Small MCAP, well undervalued, Proven Gas Reserves in Chuditch worth billions if accessible, 85% interest in Sundagas. Its a recipe for a very nice profit, be it mid or long term, don't let the daily grind of SP get you down. The advisors for Baron Oil PLC de-risk alot of the below, depending on the future of TL. Sit back and just read into regional politics / news. Everytime this thing dips below 0.09 I have to stop myself now from taking a cheeky top up!
Much has changed the past 20 years.
New maritime border agreed with Australia for one. New TL government elected. Sundagas/BOIL interest in Chuditch. A huge global change towards cleaner energy. Rising LNG demand from China, Korea, Japan. We simply need a bloody decision to be made on processing facility! :)
I still think there will be some significant movement on announcement of 3D data results, even though not necessarily required.
HFB hoping Mike Dean isn't working for the TL government! (although he does favour us Man U fans ha)
TL listen up, No VAR, No BS, Send it top of the net to Darwin and start making $$$$$$$ and developing your country now! :)
Ah, we can see the negativity as usual here.
Its been said on this share over and over, its a mid term investment. Its not a quick overnight MB. 6 Months+ looking like for significant news on Seismic (not needed) or JV partner. Saying that, also it could be tomorrow, who knows? If you are not in it at these prices then you should be! :)
What is certain is the resource, the great potential, the small MCAP, the recent earn in and super low current SP. There is no doubt that even a hint of good news will send this to the next level. Patience
Good to see this at a stable rate today. I'll be going back offshore end of this week so will be quiet from me from then. I'll be using my off-shift time to look for any news or hint of JV plans etc! :)
Partner will be managing our investments as limited comms West of Shetlands in rough seas! She knows what our personal targets are! :) however, she knows it could Q4/Q1 next year so know rush here, just pure excitement!
Nice to see this remain relatively stable today, even with the large volumes! Great info as usual HFB :)
Hold, Hold and Hold!
Looks like whoever comes knocking it will be great! Really interesting reading about Japan Imports of LNG from Australia the other day so them getting involved could be interesting Shouston! Pay dayyyy :)
Also, good news that Timor Gap is recruiting. Perhaps to take the project in a new direction, South towards Darwin hopefully! :)
Not sure about CNOOC as they wouldn't want to involve pumping to Darwin. Unless major investment from China and a quick turn around was possible. But sure they have already had a loan from PRC rejected.
TL needs the cash now before its to late. Australian infrastructure is in place and waiting.
Whatever happens, once something is confirmed, win win for us :) (the most positive being a deal involving Australia however!)
Also in the report referring to this
'As we have noted on previous occasions, the most obvious candidate is Santos Ltd, Australia’s second
largest oil and gas producer and arguably the most influential operator in the Bonaparte
Basin. The suitability of Santos as a partner reflects the proximity of its 26-inch pipeline
from the Baya-Undan field to the Santos operated LNG plant at Wickham Point near
Darwin. In principle, we believe a prospective Chuditch field development could easily and
cost effectively be linked to Santos’s 26-inch pipeline. As far as we are aware, there are no
major physical obstacles to overcome. Significantly, the Wickham Point facility needs new
feedstock supplies to replace declining output from mature gas fields of which BayaUndan is the key example.
Excluding Santos and Woodside Energy, the two leading Australian oil and gas producers,
we think the most likely farm-in partners for a prospective Chuditch development project
are East Asian oil energy companies and possibly utilities. In the former category could be
Korea based SK Energy, the Japanese operators INPEX and Mitsubishi Energy and the
Chinese major CNOOC (assuming no Australian involvement in the project). Interestingly,
SK Energy is a 37.5% joint-venture partner in Santos’s 62.5% owned and operated Barossa
gas field project in the Bonaparte Basin. SK also has a binding agreement with Santos to
acquire a 25.0% interest in the Baya-Undan field and Wickham Point LNG facility.'
Seems whoever it is, its a win win for us! :)