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Hope this helps.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19
I bought first at 93p …. all the way up to £1.95.... and all the way down to £1.09....
average £1.20 on the nose and last purchase this morning at £1.12.... happy, patiently waiting and feel news is very close ! Remember this next news will be the first of a number of key RNS's. Excited for the future of AVCT (and mine!)
Hopefully brightspark... I bought from 1.43 all the way up to 1.91 but these drops have allowed me to work my average down to 1.29. Feel like I’m in a decent place again with this share...
History probably being made here today . It’s the last time this will go under £1.15 imo
£1.20 shortly ..
Rapid testing. LFD - POC, etc - is going to be a huge market with lots of players. AVCT are clearly aiming for a gold standard product. Crucial to this to my mind is high specificity, which I imagine the use of Affimers will ensure. So I surely the AVCT product will allow pricing to be set at something of a premium?
Sounds very much like the Cov-ID app created by CTEA would be a great combination, had a little flutter over there yesterday. I think something like that in conjunction with the best Avacta test on the market would help make the world a safer place and get these economies back on their feet!
Dubai takes testing seriously and life is safe.
Trump does not take testing seriously and Corona
is spreading in USA. California, Florida where there is no
shortage of sun. How long does it take for Trump to wake up?
Always have liked the colour blue .....,
A small reduction in business rates would cover testing costs perhaps?
This would seem preferable to not receiving anything because a business has gone bust.
The cost would be far less than the furlough scheme and someone at The Treasury will be working this through.
All the best.
That should have finished with trillions / week worldwide!
I think some of the views here on testing requirements are way way over the top. I highly doubt every single person will have to take a test every time they go to a new place say on a night out for example. These tests will be great for some industries/practices and I would imagine the tests are taken only going into high risk places such as hospitals or once a week at work for example. Without a tracing system how are say 70,000 fans at a sports match going to be easily checked? When are the tests taken? Who pays? Where do fans wait? Much easier to let families only sit together and limit capacity to 50%.
At a bar - “go and wait in that space over there until the results show up” ?? With all the other untested people? Or outside in the rain and cold (thinking UK!). Social distancing and PPE will be here to overcome that instead.
Now, I do think there will be huge demand for these tests hence my investment, but some of the ideas are a little extreme in my opinion. I would imagine a bionic passport with a date of test and result embedded would be a huge step forward, and I agree some work places will require weekly testing. One person tests positive one day. Everyone sent home takes a test there and if negative allowed to return is a much more likely scenario. Other industries will require tests to unlock them but less than a lot of people are imagining. Still massive demand but the way some are talking it would literally be trillions of tests worldwide.
Just had a quick look at Abingdon Healths accounts (that is a scary set of books).
CoGs were 30% of revenue. Company made a significant loss overall.
There are economies of scale in manufacturing of course but I believe AS was aware of this when he states £2 for CoGs. Furthermore, there is a significant supply chain all of whom will require margin. It is possible to create some verticle integration (Awacta buy Abingdon Health / set up own manufacturing) .
Most people who have had a stab at the numbers here have used a fairly low contribution (£1-£5). They also have a horizon that is shorter than the emergence of significant competition. Avacta exceeds £1B in most old them (my own is £3B).
AS has stated a price of as high as £30 but £10 for tender. The later is not one factory - it is organisations such the NHS, Tesco, Amazon. I am struggling to find a scenario where the price drops to £2 especially if that is driven by the inabilities of a business to pay more. Economics doesn't work like that.
The good news is that the government are likely to buy the mass majority of tests and work with businesses - indeed the later will be crucial to deliver testing. I would also expect some guidance from HSE to the level of testing required for different industries - I can imagine meat packing requires every day (and supplied by PHE).
We are already considering bonusing staff for our overall attendance rate - not individuals - if you are showing any symptoms stay home and kept your colleagues stay disease free. That said they are an intelligent, well motivated work force.
I said a long time ago that eventually competition would arrive and margins will ultimately be squeezed. Initially however it appears that Awacta’s main focus is the govt and businesses, that’s who has been mentioned. Those are the groups of potential customers that have been referenced, (workplaces, prisons etc), they also have deep pockets and so whilst manufacturing capability is scaled up and margins are at the highest it makes perfect sense to focus on these markets. It’s also where we are currently able to strike direct deals. Medusa19 will initially flog them as novelty items pretty much exclusively to us (we’ll all be intrigued, I know I’ve signed up). Over time this will evolve, but we shouldn’t shy from being able to make incredibly good margins, all other tests out there appear to achieve 60%+.
I believe Boris,Trump and all other governments would initially foot the bill for mass testing up to say 2 months . There is a very strong case that avacta could just sell off their Covid department completely at a very inflated price of where we are today and then just concentrate on their core business -Cancer.
RK, is there not two cost scenarios? One where control on covid had been achieved and one where it has not
if aditional outbreak waves occur the demand for PPE will also be astronomical again. Demand vs supply means cost of PPE rises. UKs reserves of PPE no doubt exhausted. Wondering what the Govt pandemic planming advisrs on replenishment!! Look at the US. Once this gets out of hand what cost would Govts pay? Economies will tank and unemployment rise again.
WHO advise this will get a lot worse.
Test, test, test was the advice at the outset. This advice will need to be heeded on a mass scale. Something that has not happened yet.
I wrote this a couple of weeks back but didnt post for a few reasons. Think its still a valid view and could be part of this discussion. I kind of agree with Ken here.
In mid April I based my judgement to invest on a view for a "really' cheap test with maybe 10/14 strips and a holder in a box for £20-30 max. This was before AS gave any indicative costs/price.
I imagined everyone walking round with it in their pocket. Fancy a pint or a coffee or a meal? wait 10 mins and in you go (or isolate).
Same with just about all aspects of daily life.
To a lot of individuals, families and companies in the UK £15-25 for 1 test will be ruinous financially and we're an advanced prosperous economy. Many simply won't be able to do it.
Surely there is a real case for vast quantities and a much lower price per test?
By charging less I truly believe AVCT would increase their take as more people will be able to afford it but crucially will use it more liberally.
That in turn reduces the spread.
Im aware there will be issues manufacturing at scale but these will be overcome even at a global level once the right test is perfected and processes optimized.
Infected people who show no symptoms, may get through temperature checks, or you may be more contagious before temperature. Wearing surgical masks for any period of time even 5 minutes imo increases the amount of touching your face to either adjust the mask, or itch your nose etc. Alcohol gels are OK, but after using them 3/5 times then you have to wash your hands with soap as you can trap a film inbetween the gel applications as only 70% is alcohol which evaporates. The best way imo to remove the risk is to test test test. All other ppe will just give a false sense of security as non health care back ground there will be more human error etc.
Travel_light
I agree of course I would still have a night out, but would probably eat at home first, drive to the venue and have a drink at home afterwards
The businesses who would lose out are the restaurant,pub and taxi driver, for this reason I think the cost would have to be cheaper
There is no doubt that different businesses are working ways to decide on risk. The point is if you want a business to operate with 100% safety then you need to test everyone coming on site every day. That needs low cost mass manufacturing and the price of £2 may be workable. But, I am under no illusion that we are many months away from that. Initially our POC test with the best ‘accuracy’ will be for places where the risk is high and it will be used to protect vulnerable people and potentially in aviation where people have to travel. It may be some time before the price of our test falls below £10. The demand for months will outstrip supply (excuse the pun). But if demand becomes so high, then through scale the price could easily fall. This will be decided if they drive the costs down. Which is not the usual model in the pharmaceutical industry!
Many businesses right now scan people’s temperature on arrival, provide visors / face masks / gloves and encourage regular use of antibacterial gels. The cost of mass testing really needs to be inline with the PPE costs.
It will be very interesting how this plays out.
Cheers Rich
Hi Vegas
That night out might need to wait till elimination of virus through test and trace or vaccine. You could always eat at the theatre and sit in the bar after the concert.
A business where 1 person reports in sick will want to stay open and will be happy to pay for testing over a short duration. The alternative is to close.
Will they test everyday as soon as test available, I doubt many companies would, but if trouble arrives then yes eg meat packing plants. If hotspot I would think govenent mass testing would be primary.
All guessing whilst we wait, entertaining but we shall see soon enough :-)
I have to agree with Rich that eventually the cost per unit will need to be about £2
If I am getting on a flight I'll pay £25 because I've already spent a fair amount on the holiday
But the point of this test is to get life back to as normal as possible, go to any town centre on a Friday and Saturday night every pub and restaurant is packed, the vast majority working class people on a modest wage
A typical night out for myself and the wife would be eat out somewhere, rock concert or theatre followed by a couple of drinks in a pub, for us to be tested 3 times £12 is fine but no way would I pay £150 on top of what is an expensive night out
I think we should just focus on supplying one business...
https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/30/21243112/amazon-q1-2020-earnings-covid-19-coronavirus-jeff-bezos
We can cut him a deal. $3.5Bn Jeff? Done.
I think I might have had too much Pendyrn myself. RK your comment about volumes reminds me of a sales manager I had to "have a word with". We had a couple of product lines under licence which supported our overall offer but it meant CoGs were about 55%. He decided to do a buy one, get one free deal. Sold shed loads of volume.
Not joking.
Now that sounds like advanced economics ;-)
If your factory is closed because you won't stump up for tests, but your competitors is, then guys what happens? They increase their prices to cover the tests, probably pennies per unit, supply is reduced as there are fewer producers, customers who want the product will pay the slightly increased cost, one company makes a profit, the other doesn't.