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Ref original post.
Was meant to say Rerate
Not rebate.
Damn predictive text
Oh and just to be a bit clearer... 'Likewise, if DX has any non-stocking deals where they receive a commission on sales this cannot be used either until the payment is made.' Many Principals issue monthly commission statements but pay quarterly for example and the monthly statements cannot be considered just the actual payment once received.
This is where Licencing/Commission/Royalty deals can form a bit of a grey area when it comes to Going Concern especially in the early days.
That 25% investment is also significant, that’s obviously worth a few quid as well.
Opps! sorry should read 'Likewise, if DX has any non-stocking deals where they receive a commission on sales this cannot be used either.'
BV...Going Concern as you know is an accounting term and usually means the auditors are happy the company is stable for the near future...usually for the next 12 months. However, when it comes to certain Incomes, they are not given so much weight or even not considered at all when it comes to going concern factors by the auditors especially commission /milestone payments. TX might know what's due but until it's received is cannot be used in the assessment. Likewise, if TX has any non-stocking deals where they receive a commission on sales this cannot be used either.
Even if TX does more Licencing deals and receives regular milestone payments or commissions/royalties etc these cannot be considered until received.
As has also been pointed out the Coris acquisition deal has skewed the CODB line but that is short term.
Personally, I'm not worried about the Going Concern stuff...it's all pretty standard for where Avacta is in their growth cycle and acquisition deals etc. The biggest risk to Avacta has always been the AVA6000 trial outcomes and right now (unless something devistating/unforeseen happens) we are in a much better place than we were just 12 months ago. The markets, however, are not fully convinced because they are 'sales/income' orientated. Now we need the backing of real long term specialised investors - such as the ones I have highlighted. They will give us more credibility and they will be the go between for new deals with Pharma by standing in our corner when it comes to negotiating or future contracts etc. All big Pharma have their Venture/Investment arms and they use this as a way of getting in with for them a nominal investment but for the likes of Avacta this is what will be needed for real Commercialisation and Shareholder value.
I know I've banged on about it but I do feel we are on the cusp of securing such investment if not already done so.
If something financially significant happens a company is obliged to tell it's shareholders but they don't have to give all the detail. They could have just said in the fundraise RNS that it had been taken up by new and old investors but no they told us specifically that a European Specialised Healthcare Fund was involved too...they don't have to name and say more...they just have to tell us. Now we need to know how significant...the silence is key.
£38M cash as at end March 24 : Would like to think deals will be done this year & certainly long before end 2025 ,so at the moment healthy cash reserves & diagnostics conributions will be cash positive .
Lots happening 2H2024 .
"[00:56:45.760]
-Christina Coughlin So this is correct. Back to my favourite slide. Based on the data that we've seen in the clinic, and that
includes both the PK, the efficacy, the safety, we have been working on the pipeline very hard internallyere. We describe there are multiple formats that we can everage the precision technology, not just the precision drug conjugates, but also Precision Plus, which is going to allow us to take, we mentioned immune mediated or targeted therapies as warheads, so not just a cytotoxic.
We also have the Precision ADC format, the Affirmer drug conjugate format. And so we are quite excited about how the pipeline is coming together. And we haven't disclosed the details yet.
But what I do commit to you is that in the second half of 2024, we will be disclosing the pipeline.We think it's pretty exciting with a couple of really novel programmes coming forward. And with that disclosure, we will also be describing time to the clinic and where we are with each of those programmes. So good question. And we very much look forward to that particular update in the second half of 2024"
Science will prevail - yes current market cap stinks - apparently " everything on the table " have you been dealt good or bad hand - your choice " stick ,fold or twist " I will stick with the company . It is all about for me the asset IP value & someone will pay to get their hands on Avacta proprietary technology .
Good luck everyone .
GMCC,
How, can you possibly know all of that?
Have you taken over where Smith left off?!
Strangy83, "We are now on the cusp of a rebate..."
Blimey, Strangy, that's optimistic even by Sujood's standards ;-)
I agree BV. To be honest if they have not sorted funding out by the end of this year through deals or sale of DX it will be poor. 2 weekly should highlight even more efficacy data, more 3 weekly data to come as 4 patients with high fap continue to take drug and were showing reductions (albeit small but expected to reduce further) and they are working on more potent toxins which will be revealed in H2 which is not dissimilar to a for sale sign. Defo makes sense to go for the ACDs rather than 3996 and other older molecules.
So, by my reckoning, Avacta will need 12 months projected cash flow by end of March 2025 in order to continue as a going concern. That would mean until end of March 2026. That would mean that the statement "That cash, based on our current runways, takes us through probably to the start of 2026", whilst 'encouraging', means that another shot of funding - from whatever source - will be required to be on the account before the end of March.
I'm not an accountant and can't read financial statements so please put me right if I am, hopefully, wrong about this.
Going concern
These financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis, notwithstanding a loss of £24.95m and operating cash outflows from operations of £21.8m for the year ended 31 December 2023. The Directors consider this to be appropriate for the following reasons.
The Directors have prepared detailed cash flow forecasts that extend to at least twelve months from the date of approval of the financial statements. The forecasts take into account the Directors' views of current and future economic conditions that are expected to prevail over the period. These forecasts include assumptions regarding the status of therapeutic development collaborations, the AVA6000 clinical trials, and product development projects together with the Launch and Coris sales pipelines, future revenues and costs, together with various scenarios which reflect growth plans, opportunities, risks and mitigating actions. The forecasts also include assumptions regarding the timing and quantum of investment in the therapeutic development programmes.
Whilst there are inherent uncertainties regarding the cash flows associated with the development of both the therapeutic platforms, the Directors are satisfied that there is sufficient discretion and control as to the timing and quantum of cash outflows to ensure that the Company and Group are able to meet their liabilities as they fall due for at least twelve months from the date of approval of the financial statements. The key factors considered in reaching this conclusion are summarised below:
· As at 31 December 2023, the Group's cash and cash equivalents were £16.6m (2022: £41.8m).
· The Group completed an equity fundraise in March 2024, which raised gross proceeds of £31.1m (£29.4m net proceeds)
· While the Group does have external borrowings in the form of a convertible bond with principal amount remaining of £40.8m, this liability can be settled by the issue of new equity, rather than cash, at the discretion of the Group.
· The Directors have considered the position of the individual trading companies in the Group to ensure that these companies are also in a position to continue to meet their obligations as they fall due.
The Directors continue to explore additional sources of income and finance available to the Group to continue the development of the therapeutic platforms beyond 2024. The sources of income could come through the licensing of assets/targets from the proprietary Affimer® and pre|CISION™ platforms or through additional therapeutic collaborations, similar to the LG Chem and Daewoong collaborations, which may include up-front technology access fees and significant early-stage development income, or through additional equity fundraises.
Based on these indications, the Directors are confident that the Company will have sufficient funds to continue to meet its liabilities as they fall due for at least twelve months from the date of approval of the financial statements ...
Easily said - Probably yeah. Unlike Tony I can also subtract. I'm popping in my CV for the CFO role now....
Get the phase one clinical data & then boom :
" We have hired our Chief Business Officer, Simon Bennett,and let me tell you, he is quite busy. The commercial deals that we've spoken about, these are really unlocked by these clinical data. And so there are multiple conversations ongoing. Progress is being made on multip le fronts in the pipeline"
Https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Avacta-Group-plc-Preliminary-Results-29Apr2024_final.pdf
" So at the end of March, we had circa 38 mil lion cash. That cash,based on our current runways, takes us through probably to the start of 2026"
"
Good Morning -very useful transcript from yesterday.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/36pr2bcwdrg7wqwchedq2/AVACTA-Prelims-and-Update-April-30th-2024.docx?rlkey=kbadjkv1w13h1ougizsobjeld&e=1&dl=0
We are now on the cusp of a rebate...
News will send the SP upwards quick.
No charts required just look at the science and the CEO.