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DM83- don't think I've seen anyone mention a 100 Billion market cap apart from yourself? of course in time we could see that kind of MC here but would take a good few years, liking your positiveness though, keep it up. Good lad!
We know 30million workers in UK. Many of them not high risk.
Let's "pretend" we get to a point where only Skegness has cases. There would be little point testing someone on a plane in Cardiff. I doubt NZ are testing at that level.
So even if we start at high testing rates has people are isolated the need for trusting declines. The dentist model is interesting - you could use them, hospitals and GPs to passively test the population - would quickly identify hotspots.
My sums are 20% of 30M workers. Tested on average 12 times. These are reliable as numbers I pulled out my are which coincidentally ......
Hi DM 83.
You say its a bit crazy to think that every passenger on a plane will be tested. Are you sure? After all it didn't take long after the shoebomber for every plane passenger to be tested for liquids so as to try to rule out the infitesimally smaller risk that they may be a terrorist.
And even if the tests are not made compulsory don't you think any airline offering a quick reliable preflight test as part of their standard package would have a huge marketing advantage over those who did not?
Re Dentistry it would be interesting to get the views of our Dentist shareholders but I do know that the chief dental officer for Scotland has said that when Dental Practices eventually start up again in Scotland patients will not be treated if they inter alia have tested positive for covid in the last seven days or are waiting for a test or are waiting for the results of a test or are living with someone who has tested positive in the last 14 days. Testing is obviously given an extremely high level of importance. The way the guidelines are framed at present the dentist asks the patient the questions and records the responses.
The potential loopholes are obvious.
Just as well the guidance is a "living resource" which may be amended as new information becomes available or circumstances evolve.
Drug company Astra Zeneca has said it will produce the vaccine light so it’s ready when final approval is given and intends to produce two billion doses thanks to funding from Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates.
The Oxford University team are reportedly “80 per cent confident” the Covid-19 vaccine work in younger people and say the vaccine could be given using a device like an asthma inhaler next month.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11799908/coronavirus-vaccine-inhaler-next-month/
Wiggly. Hope your gran is ok. But I would get a home test kit ordered to test her when she comes home asap
PL, JR. I work in aviation and I highly highly doubt every passenger will be subject to a 15 minute test pre flight. Airlines just won’t go for it unless it is mandated by a body such as ICAO. There is a framework for PPE being drawn up and I think that’s where it stops. Passengers will fly again regardless so if PL chooses not to he can sit on his own. No public transport or bars etc for you either then?
Dentists testing everyday - probably more possibility but I just don’t see it. I agree the market is still massive but some people are going into a dream world with this. Even modest population testing will reap big rewards hence my holding here.
I don’t see any other option other that a LFT for international flights as the fever-tech being rolled out is nothing more than theatre , 50% accurate at best https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/traveller-screening
Do you not think that whilst they would never admit it the airlines will monetise the test ?
DM83,
You may say that the airlines will not go for it, but I can tell you, I for one will not hop on a plane until a vaccine is around, or test plus ppe are used on planes.
Why?
PPE, or mask, are limited on their effectiveness, unless they are P3 type, which is what they are not going to give.
Also, the air on a plane is not you "fresh" air, but recycled. Remember the cruise ships? People got contaminated just like those block of flats in Hong Kong. I know there isn't much research on the airborne contagion on the cruises linked to covid, but I am convinced it's as airborne as the Hong Kong's bloc of flats story.
So, in short, until they do a proper screening before boarding, unless it is extremely necessary, I will not risk.
And finally, as I expressed in a post a while back, we may have the second wave, and a third, just like 1919, unless we screen this thing properly.
So yes, a test before you board and another when you land.
Time will tell
St
Marvellous, let’s follow up RDs hypothetical scenario. We’re alright jack, we’ve only cases in Skeggy... what happens when people from Brazil or India fancy flying in? How long do you fancy keeping international borders shut? Fancy a summer holiday? Tough, they don’t want you at the moment as they don’t know if you’ve got it. I’m not suggesting these tests will remain in place forever but in the short term you need them in use as widespread use as possible and flights are an extremely obvious place to start due to the risks. If it’d been contained in Wuhan you wouldn’t be sat typing on this BB.
I’ve said all along, this whole thing could be resolved in weeks if everyone on the planet agreed to perfectly isolate at the same time. That’s not happening. If you were extremely aggressive with testing, say the entire globe was tested for a month with everyone positive isolating for 2 weeks, it’d be gone. That won’t happen either. Mass screening in some form is the only way to get back to a genuine normal, not this ‘new normal’ nonsense. If screening is not entire populations then it makes sense to do it at the main high risk points, aviation is definitely one of them.
Let’s consider public transport as you’ve mentioned it. We’ve fewer cases now, should everyone pile back in the tube en masse? Millions of people shoving their faces in each other’s armpits every day? The r value is 3, that’s a fast way to a second wave. Unless there’s mass screening.
Want to go to the gig/theatre? Can’t see that happening without a test if they want to open soon etc etc blah blah. Looks like DM is staying in for a while too, apart from the pub you’ll go to, with it’s great socially distanced atmosphere. I doubt it will happen, but if there was an govt approved app and you had to have a negative result within 24 hours to go out normally, I know which night out I’d prefer. Don’t be fooled by the ‘new normal’ being the solution. It’s not normal.
These are all short term things (<6m?) until it’s globally contained. That will be achieved quickly by rapid antigen tests being used in extremely high numbers but only initially. I wouldn’t be shocked to see national government testing to help them drag themselves out of the mess they’ve made of track and trace. I do see it used in other key industries, aviation being one, until it is contained globally. In addition, unless everyone wants to live 2m apart, you’ll have employers wanting to look after their staff. Ocado bought 100k tests for example.
Ultimately though, we’re psssing in the wind, who knows? So typing all that was a waste of time. Hopefully Awacta will have a test that can potentially be used in all those scenarios and one day we can pop back and see how well these posts have aged. As you’ve said, modest levels will see fine returns, so we’re debating how big our private yachts will be, not a bad position to be in.
Great post, totally agree
Recently returned from Cambodia. Their policy now for entry is:
A negative test < 72hrs prior to departure (which is still not good enough, needs to be done prior to boarding)
Repeat test on arrival - if negative self isolate where choose too
If positive - isolate at location chosen by govt
Cs, its either that or vastly reduced crowds. As long as covid is here it will not be possible to pack stadiums and pubs.
I’ve mixed feelings Chengdo, compliments indeed, but I can’t believe that waffle could rank higher than Have I Got Flus For You
Yup, not a huge stretch of the imagination, oh, and you’d probably want to double check yourself before heading to the airport. We’ve got that covered via medusa19.com
DM83 I think with the airlines we are all looking about getting customers on board. But the airlines have a duty of care to staff also in dentist surgerys . It is only a matter of time before the unions get involved. One sick/dead air stewardess and BOOM
You could say the same for any industry e.g, manufacturing. If you wanted to get to full capacity, you wouldn’t want Covid ripping through your workforce resulting in lots of absences. Maybe play it safe and buy a weekly test for your employees? That’s a lot of tests...
That’s it. RK was right. 1.4Bn tests a month and a MCap of £630Bn it is.
Dentist shareholder here - I think there's two perspectives to think about, the patient and the dentist. From a patient's point of view they want to be confident that the dentist and nurse do not have Covid and they want confidence that the practice has got suitable measures in place that reduce the risk of covid entering the practice. From the dentist's perspective, we clearly want to know every patient doesn't have Covid. Our Standard Operating Procedures will change as the government alert levels change, so whilst we are in alert levels 3-5 we will be wearing enhanced PPE (FFP3 masks and gowns, both nurse and dentist) during an Aerosol Generating Procedure (AGP) so that's drilling/ultrasonic scaling. Most practices do not have a negative pressure system in their surgeries and so will have to leave the surgeries for 1 hour after performing an AGP. Following this 1 hour 'fallow' period we then clean for probably 15 minutes to get ready for the next patient. What does the dentist do for that 1 hour 15 minutes?? Essentially whatever happens, dental practice revenues are going to be hit hard, perhaps taking 30-50% of previous revenue at a guess. I suspect a lot of practices will fold or a lot of associate dentists will lose jobs if this doesn't go away. Now if we had an low cost rapid POC test, this could open up dentistry up but it really does depend on the sensitivity of the test and the LOD imo. I don't know where the threshold of acceptability would be for dentists to stop using enhanced PPE and stop the surgery 'fallow' period after AGP's. In terms of dentists and nurses testing daily, I don't think that would be made mandatory but if we found that patient's confidence in coming to the dentist was improved by staff taking daily tests then I'm sure dentists would be happy to do that. They're businesses at the end of the day so they will do whatever it takes to make sure the business is viable. I watched a webinar the other day and a high profile dentist asked the question 'when did infection control in our profession move from risk mitigation to risk elimination??'...I had to laugh....because before we weren't in the middle of a global pandemic??
In this strange world we live in I cannot see how you would have a strip for 24 hours. Each venue would need to test or how do you prove it’s your test? As I said strange world I could see a black market for negative strips if there was a time frame on each one
I wish nothing more than this test being used all the time and it has massive potential. I’m invested so I agree we are onto an amazing thing. I just think the amount of tests some people think will be needed are over exaggerated. Let’s take aircraft again for example, Mr Spacetomato claims that the air is recycled and that will spread the disease, that’s not true. Planes have recirculation fans granted, however the air that goes through these fans is also sent through hospital theatre grade HEPA filters that trap 99.9% of bacteria including corona viruses. Also the air on a plane, even with recirc fans operating, is completely refreshed every 3-5 minutes! An air conditioned building is 10-12 minutes. The only way the virus will be passed on during air travel is via the usual less than two metres or touching surfaces etc. That’s why PPE is required to clean and protect. Things like only using one toilet between a certain group of passengers by cabin or row etc is in the framework being drawn up. There are testing facilities being created at airports as we speak and testing will be done but I can’t see lines of people waiting to be tested before a flight. The way some people are speaking people might end up taking three tests a day just to do different activities. If I’m wrong I’ll hold my hands up and be thankful that my shares are worth more than I though possible.
For most industries i see maybe weekly tests for staff at high risk and having close contact with customers. Track and trace will be the governments main way of controlling the virus going forward. By the time logistically we have the ability to produce all the tests for all the industries for all the countries people are talking about, a vaccine will be available. Most people will have the vaccine, some won’t. Most will.
Chengd. One minor point missing. The recycled air passes through HEPA filters. Google them, they are amazing
Most people in London don't seem to care. Going into shops without masks and gloves, not keeping 2m and so on. It's bizarre, but very British: pure Thanatos. I agree with PL - why would I want to sit on a flight knowing someone might have an infectious and lethal disease? Unless, of course, I don't care about my life.
Maybe our test will be taken up by more humanist, kinder, more organised countries. Avoidance is the name of the game here. It's kinda infantile, non-adult.
@London - I am a visitor to London (not by choice btw) and I am dismayed by so called intelligent people going on about their days as if the disease does not exist. Yes, in Asia we had SARS to deal with and the experience of that has helped the governments react quickly in terms of lock downs and the nearly all of the people behave responsibly. The West needs to take note. As soon as the borders are back open in Asia I am gone from here where for me (as a vulnerable person age, health etc) there is less chance of catching Covid-19. Wear a mask, keep your distance, wash your hands is not exactly rocket science is it?
Great posts on this subject. Thanks.
You've also got to consider (as some of you have) that you might be crossing borders. At the moment, we are letting travellers come and go without testing (granted the number of flights in and out have reduced significantly). As stated the other day, my brother departed from the UK to USA a day before the USA ban. He had to self isolate for 2 weeks on arrival in the USA. When he came back to UK the other week, he was told to self isolate at home for 2 weeks.
Wouldn't a 10 minute POC test eliminate the need for self isolation? In the world of business - TIME IS MONEY.
Wouldn't a 10 minute POC test help stop the spread of the virus from crossing from one country to another? The virus did not just magically appear in the UK. It crossed borders to get here, probably via a passenger on an aeroplane.
A 10 minute test taken before you leave home. If you are positive then there is no need to travel to the airport - wasting your time and theirs. Insurance has to be in place so that you can get a refund of your flight and accommodation if you are unable to depart because you have Covid19.
On arrival at the airport, you have to either take another test if there isn't an app / barcode thingy in place to prove that you tested prior to leaving. The price of the test is added to the fee when you originally book the flight.
You can fill the plane to capacity - except for those that have failed the test prior to flying. No need for PPE (as long as the staff on the plane have been tested). The country that you land in knows that the arrivals are Covid free. Your accommodation knows that you are covid free (with proof ie phone app / documentation with your testing location, method, date, time & outcome etc).
Apologies if I've posted anything already mentioned.
BUILD IT AND THEY WILL COME..
Minimil,
"Wear a mask, keep your distance, wash your hands is not exactly rocket science is it"?
I said exactly that almost two months ago on a BBC forum regarding masks, and was shot down! 47 votes against and 2 in favour (on was my wife)!
I had backed up my comments with academic articles on the effectiveness of surgical masks as to wearing nothing, JAMA, BMJ, etc.., but was ridiculed. I came to the point to say that those do called experts telling people on TV masks were no good, will have, one day, to apologise. They did that in Europe when they admitted they told people that because they didn't have enough masks!
Sometimes the truth slaps you in the face but you still can't see it...many lives have been lost needlessly.
St
@Chengdo - Yes we are on the same page on this one, but going in opposite directions lol. Let's hope Avacta 10 min test does exactly what it says on the tin.