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It’s not rocket science even to an outsider, and sometimes that’s the best position to be in
Only last week this BB were noting multiples of 100, 200, 250 and 500k buys pushing the SP up to £1.43 - has anything material happened since then, and do we see any evidence of these recent purchases getting dumped ?
No of course we don’t because these are serious well informed investors / not traders, or the derampers on this BB working for Jupiter
Regarding the facts re AffiDX - AS stated more than 12 months ago we would produce a gold standard LFT, he also stated that production capacity would be put together to meet the challenge of supplying demand - has any of this proved to be incorrect in anyway ?
No - so the only question remaining - what is the demand for such a product over the next 5 to 10 years ?
Well for me just looking at the Uk alone, we have a death infection and hospitalisation rate rising at least 10% weekly and we havnt even got to the traditional cold and flue season yet, regardless of this all English airports and customs are switching to LFT tests from next month.
We know mologic are producing the tests and Bioserve can’t keep up with demand, anyone that’s been in mass production will know mologic won’t be running small production runs as it’s not cost effective.
We can also clearly see Medusa19 after 16 plus months of waiting with £25 million of LFT manufacturing equipment standing idle are holding on and existing purely to distribute the AffiDX test - their current rapid saliva protein test has always been nothing more than window dressing
We also have strong reason to believe ABDX and ODX have connections to Avacta and AffiDX too
Ive got a sizeable stake here, so yes frustrated at the SP too, but for me there is absolutely no reason at all to believe that the best LFT in the world, that the world desperately needs in collosal volumes will not sell in volume to the Uk and the rest of the world for the next 5 to 10 years.
It’s up to everyone who holds this stock with genuine hopes to DYOR meticulously and independently rather than listening and buying into some of the absolute utter deluded rubbish some spend all day writing on here
I personally suspect the Jupiter position has been placed for reasons much bigger than the tiny 0.75% of the company it’s shorting and it could well have already served most of its purpose, but that will all be pretty academic soon.
GLA genuine holders - the rest go take a running jump !
DYOR
EGTP '- so the only question remaining - what is the demand for such a product over the next 5 to 10 years ?'
Actually I would add to that...and what other pathogens will they target.
Once Avacta gets all its ducks in a row for its LFT, the strip can easily be tweeted to detect other serious pathogens around the globe...its not going to be just one LFT to detect Covid...they will roll out new versions as time goes on...
Tweaked...grrr
Condolences at this very sad time xx RB
Yes many potential diagnostic applications
"Broad life sciences market opportunities; clear in-house focus on diagnostics
Clinical / Consumer Diagnostic
Bioprocessing
Research
Immunoassays
Imaging ( upcoming presentation https://www.rms.org.uk/rms-event-calendar/2021-events/imaging-oneworld-using-affimers-.html
-----------------
In-house and Partnered Pipeline
• In-house development pipeline priorities:
– SARS-CoV-2 antigen: COVID-19
– Cortisol: stress
– TRAIL, CRP: sepsis
– VitB12: anemia
• Pipeline of technology evaluations aimed at licensing deals mainly in the diagnostic
market.
– Biokit, part of the Werfen Group, licensed certain Affimer reagents for diagnostic product development in February 2021.
– Astrea Bioseparations licensed the platform (£0.5m upfront) for affinity purification in December 2020"
Sorry to hear about your daughter in law.
EGTP, Bella, gmcc,
Sensible commentary, thank you.
It is, and always has been, the ability to see and understand the bigger picture with Avacta which is crucial. I personally am confident that Avacta will make me a lot of money and I am happy to wait quite a while if necessary, for that to happen.
This ability to appreciate the bigger picture distinguishes the rational, sensible minority on this BB (including of course, the excellent researchers and sleuths) from the noisy nincompoops and devious manipulators. The number of self-agrandising, shouty, subtly negative, convoluted claptrap posts which they make, are a daily irritant but do nothing at all to change the bigger picture.
It's going to start coming soon. And when it starts to come, it'll keep on coming, like a goods train . . . enjoy the ride.
Yes exactly Bella - the brilliant scalable adaptable LFT avacta have produced is simply the beginning of what will be a future 100 billion dollar industry with LFT’s getting produced for new variants and completely new pandemics as well as the AffiDX range being expanded to detect vitamin D - Cortisol -cancer - pregnancy ect
The AffiDX using affimer tech is the golden egg - there is nothing on planet earth to currently touch it and I believe this tech will eventually be adapted into tooth brushes and household water meters (example DVRG) essential testing for everything in the future will be automated and we are best suited to supply that need
History shows the best innovations were always born out of adversity - covid-19 has changed the world for ever, just like Richard Reid inadvertently did so when he tried to blow up flight 63 in 2001 - anyone that doubts this wants to try going through customs without an x-ray scan !
I can say with 100% certainty that Jupiter (or any other financial firm for that matter) will NOT have a short position greater than whatever is reported.
A listed firm like this will in no way misreport their daily positions due to internal compliance measures, monitoring tools (e.g. required restriction coding), FCA scrutiny (and punishments for misreporting), checks from internal and external auditors, MAR, etc, etc.
Suggesting otherwise is just a case of misinformation, a lack of understanding or UK regs, and totally false.
It is not just the naysayers that spread false information on these boards, and again, Jupiter will NOT be paying people to post on a BB. They could not care less about what anyone on here says or does in terms of making any investment decisions.
DYOR
Think you may have misread EGTP's comment, if that is who you are referring to.
Interesting will admit no very little about shorting . With regard to Jupiter guess it depends on who they borrowed the shares from , some of the companies they short have been outstanding for sometime .
https://shorttracker.co.uk/manager/jupiter-investment-management-limited/
"There are no standardized regulations relating to just how long a short sale can last before being closed out. A short sale is a transaction in which shares of a company are borrowed by an investor and sold on the market. The investor is required to return these shares to the lender at some point in the future. The lender of the shares has the ability to request that the shares be returned at any time, with minimal notice. In case of this happening, the short-sale investor is required to return the shares to the lender regardless of whether it causes the investor to book a gain or take a loss on the trade."
Yes Gje306 that’s correct re Jupiter my comment - I wasn’t meaning it in that way
All will be revealed shortly :-)
@EGTP have you gone all ophidian on us with your inside info? or just guessing like the rest of us?
What we all know is that Medusa and Avacta are working towards a home use CE mark and currently this under a confidentiality clause. When there is material news on this we will be told.
logically this will be soon....
Don't leave us hanging EGTP... what do you have in mind? :)
" personally suspect the Jupiter position has been placed for reasons much bigger than the tiny 0.75% of the company it’s shorting "
Timster I don’t believe I’ve stated anywhere on this BB that I have inside information - because that’s against the rules !
I will say that anyone worth their salt that’s DYOR knows where things are headed outside of planet earth, never mind inside ;
Bella, I’m not sure 5-10 years based on what’s been put out there for the Affidx Covid LFT, but the NHS framework Medusa announced and are part of will run for 4 years. So they are at least looking 4 years out.
Have to laugh. On the whole valid and sensible but then adopts .
"No of course we don’t because these are serious well informed investors / not traders, or the derampers on this BB working for Jupiter"
The LFT angle only works if affirmers offer an advantage over AB. This doesn't seem to be the case - have a look at sales numbers to date. Therefore not my opinion but the opinion of customers.
The potential value first affimer DX is biosensors that are qualitative. So how much of a analyte is present. This is incredibly difficult with AB - there may be a device that is commercially available but I don't know of one. The variability in readout is the problem - just cannot get it consistent.
Now affirmers may solve this. Imagine ITU - how much CRP does pt have wanging around. Is it going up, is it going down. What is the readout on other inflammatory markers, are there pathogens present. A multiplex affimer biosensor would be a major breakthrough. Google University of Leeds and affirmers and you can see the direction it is headed.
RorkesDrift, all good stuff with the types of diagnosts you describe, and these are likely to become more prevalent in conjunction with miniature mass spectrometers, as is seen with the likes of deepverge and microsaic, and I'm sure they are already working together closely on these.
Current advantages of affimers are the initial development time and then subsequent ease of production. A future advantage, in the EU at least, is if antibodies end up having to be replaced and require non-animal based alternatives. Both of these could see affimer based LFT's gaining market share over the current AB solutions.
Affirmers but tell my spool chucker.
To date development times don't look any quicker and the animal issue hadn't put off the purchasers of LFDs. Both Covid and Zika LFDs have struggled commercially. The current situation was opportunistic but we haven't any evidence that it has been realised - frustrating and not a deramp.
We may be able to fit more recognition molecules in a given space hence the high sensitivity but the Chinese seem to be able to bang out LFDs for next to nothing. Thus AvactaDx need to find an unmet need which they can uniquely fill. Quantative DX rather than LFD could be that gap. We know the requirement is there for bed side testing - given Avacta money resources are tight and possibly best spent in therapeutics then a big pocket partner/ TO could run with this - suspect it with come out of left field.
The HUA which can be predicted time be in development (why wouldn't they do this, apply standard regulatory timescales) only makes a dent if the hurdle is high and Avacta are able time leverage superior performance in the mind if purchasers - "they are worth it" switch to video of grandma etc. Medusa are a Marketing outfit and Avacta have started to dip toe in water (what was the b011 ux being put on their Twitter account by shareholders having a pop - not helpful). Going to need something a bit more meaty e.g. Boots branded test etc than current efforts
Interesting point about the MS stuff. Had a quick wiki read. Also the extraction step using beads is in there
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplexed_point-of-care_testing
There is nothing to stop the likes of medusa19 leveraging some Chinese manufacturer, for example. Send out boxes of strips, job done. I'm sure they have or will be constantly looking into the pros and cons around this vs manufacturing them in-house.
Are you referring to the development time of the affidx end product or the affimers themselves? I believe the actual strip didn't take long by all accounts. Once the end to end process has been perfected then it's just a handle turning exercise to push out new products based on the same tech, with the advantage then being on the time and cost to develop the reagents.
All in all, I'd say we are early on in the journey with respect to LFT's and their use in diagnostics. All to play for.