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What's the likelihood that one of the below shareholders of Aston Martin will launch an open offer in coming days / weeks considering weak share price???
Current shareholders / percentage they own:
Lawrence Stroll's Yew Tree Consortium: 26.23 %
Public Investment Fund (Investment Management) 20.50%
Geely 17%
Mercedes 9.7%
Lucid 3.7% (owned by Saudi's)
In total 77% of Aston Martin is own by the above shareholders!!
What's the likelihood of someone taking over a company with more debt/payables than the market cap, who desperately need cash to stay afloat in the next 3 months?
Pretty small I would imagine.
You really are getting desperate now. You know when posters want a takeover that almost all hope is lost.
Any takeover would mean a 10% premium to holders, so no chance of making back all the money you lost.
More chance of all of them taking it private to get away from stockmarket glare, as the numbers are just getting worse.
Either Q3 or Q4 this year cash flow positive. That's all you need to know. The clock is ticking. Tick tock, tick tock, you'll be gone soon enough.
Starting with the first target, in 2023, AML wholesaled 6,620 cars. Conservatively, high single digit would be at least 7% growth or 7,083 cars. Given Q1 actual was 945 cars wholesaled and AML’s is stating that Q2 will be “broadly similar to Q1’24”, AML would need to wholesale 5,193 cars in the 2nd half of 2024 to meet guidance. In 2023, AML wholesaled 3,666 cars in the 2nd half and the same number for 2022 is 3,736. To hit the guidance, AML would need to deliver 2nd half growth of 42% vs. 2nd half 2023. Versus the 1st half of 2024, it would be 175% growth.
https://ssoreport.com/aml-q1-2024-result
Unlikely in my opinion LondonWatcher and also won’t be in the best interest of shareholders. When everything looked to be going to plan last year, brokers estimates were around £4, if it starts to look like things are back on track it will start moving back up. Any way Geeley are the only ones I think that might try it and they can’t go above 25% until August.
WTF are you on about??? Q1 2024 only 300 down on Q1 2023 I would say is quite remarkable given 3 of the 4 main models are runouts and weren’t even in production. Ditto for Q2.
How about you save your poor little finger tips and STF up until full year figures are posted for 2024.
How about if you’re right and they’ve only sold 4000 cars then I’ll take you out for a slap up steak dinner and if you’re wrong you take your phone to deepest darkest Africa and both stay there???
Karenable.
@c2645sg – Are you really using SSO/Karenable pro-ratings to predict AML’s 2024 annual sales?
Have you learned nothing from all the times you pro-rated & got it wrong every time? < Roll Eyes >
- - - - - - - - - -
2021 Predictions:
c2645sg – 23/11/21 – Quote: “No, we are NOT on target to hit 6000 this year. Projection this year of 5666 cars sold (based on 9 months figure of 4250).”
2021 Actual = 6,178.
- - - - - - - - - -
2022 Predictions:
c2645sg - 06/10/22 – Quote: “H1 was 2675 sales, and that run rates looks similar in H2 so far. So roughly selling 5300 ish”
c2645sg - 07/10/22 - Quote: “H1 sales were c.2500, therefore full year is 5000”
c2645sg – 03/11/22 – Quote: “AML's run rate of sales at this rate is 5500 per year”
2022 Actual = 6,412.
- - - - - - - - - -
2023 Predictions:
c2645sg – 16/05/23 - Quote: “Q1 numbers were 1,269, so multiplied by 4 for full year is only 5076, and the target is 7000”
c2645sg – 27/06/23 - Quote: “Sales in Q1 were 1200 x 4 = 5000 per year, way short of 7000.”
c2645sg - 20/01/24 – “UK sales down over 12% in 2023 compared to 2022… 7000-12% = 6160 sales.”
2023 Actual = 6,620
Which was not materially different to 6,700 market guidance, so no 2023 profit warning required.
@tinypie2 – you posted this link a while back, which covers the back end loading & capacity to do it.
obviously, we will have a better idea if the plan is working as the year progresses.
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-aston-martin-on-track-with-new-launches-eyes-growth-93ch-3413230
douglas lafferty – quote – “…those ramp-up plans are in line with our expectations currently and take us ramping up through the second quarter of this year and then into full rate in the second half of last year. and then similarly i sort of outlined in my opening, as i said, we've been preparing for this, expecting for this, recruiting for this and we're making very good progress in terms of being ready for what we know is going to be a big second half. and then with regards to our precedent of delivery, i think you just need to look at the last couple of years in terms of q4, we've needed to deliver and we have the execution capability to do that and we've demonstrated that across both plants with st athan being very, very busy in q4 2022 and ***don being very busy in q4 2023. so we have the execution capability; it's been the plan, continues to be the plan and we're confident in delivering on it.”
@LondonWatcher – We had this debate earlier this year, so read my last post in this thread.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=4476057D-192A-4CCF-8A2D-37EC7BE0F76D
In short, those ‘big players’ you listed all took part in the 1st Aug.23 cash raise.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/proposed-share-placing-5fym4jm3s3fuyuk.html
Therefore, they couldn’t launch a bid at these low prices, even if they wanted to.
Note – I am not ‘desperately’ suggesting that a takeover is coming, just pointing out the rules.
Hope that helps, cheers, Paul. :)