The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Am I right in saying that given the departure of Glen that they have now moved the deadline for voting? Or am i being an idiot here..?
Thought so, cheers for clarifying.
Very odd developments all week here, almost like an RNS for the sake of speaking. Fascinating nonetheless.
Votes cast and minor top up @ 11.3p
GLA
Him
Hounddog
First time i have responded to a deramper? Surely all investing is ultimately a gamble. Invest and comment GLA
Hounddog - just read through some of your previous posts, you change your mind more than my mrs.
The deadline was there before on FAQ.
Accounts residing within nominees are best voting a week earlier thats what they request.
Hounddog, in one respect you maybe right. . Not quite sure about the odds though. Regardless of the outcome, certainty will follow and the company should find a new level of normality. Once it is trading again, I see no reason as to why a share price comparable to its balance sheet value would not be attainable (IE 35.9p +/-5p). If not better. This is a long game now. I don't suspect anyone can call this right now.
Investing is a calculated risk, not a gamble. Ask any gambler and they'll confirm the same as your saying
Calculated risk is gambling, Calculate the odds of return over risk
"There's no way to calculate if it's going to be red or black at roulette."
or green...............
50/50
Simple calculation
Horse racing, research the form like you would a business etc etc
nope. horse racing you are betting on the outcome of an event. listed shares, you are buying perception.
we've had this chat before and a real gambler but it across far better than I can.
But anyone says that investing is not gambling they are kidding themselves
E.g mark is one of most respected guys here and his biggest loss was Debenhams- He calculated that Mike Ashley would turn it around.
Bigsmoke
I'm not saying we are all just here on a punt, i'm really not
But we are all gambling on an outcome we don't know yet
Just look at all the theories posted everyday.
mark? i recall mark from Metro. i thought that was his biggest loss.
anyway, i disagree. MA turning DEB around was not direct on Mark's loss. It was the perception of the market on MA performance.
maybe read up on Keynes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/business/economy/on-wall-st-a-keynesian-beauty-contest.html
calamari - i recall you. metro deramper of the first class. anyway., one would think that peeps are looking at more than the outcome of an event. may as well toss a coin. surely either way the fundeees point to a value higher than the current SP?
seamus12 - " theories posted " - that is a kind expression for some.
I am 100% sure Bill would disagree, he focuses on the GG's
Bill Benter. (100 Million Dollars Per Annum) Bill Benter (also known as William Benter) was born in 1957 in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania. He is a mastermind in Mathematics and holds a degree in Physics. ...
Hey Big
It's just my opinion, but I'm sure i'm not alone
seamus12 - totally, its all our opinions. and we all have them, or should have them, and are entitled to them.
not here to argue. just provide a comment or two until the next tweet.
If Bill Benter was event driven then he is saying that broker notes are totally irrelevent and experts have no place.
I totally agree
I did see a win win re vote but think JB/GC would be the best outcome but as they say, a business is/should be bigger than one person
But we still can't calculate things like claims so that's where I see the risk/gamble here
sorry i made that remark now lol
" surely all investing is ultimately a gamble"
Speaking as someone who has enjoyed gambling for many years and only a recent investor ,i have to say this is much more entertaining. To think i was originally in Barclays and LLoyds yawn!
If the probability distribution is the same for all outcomes it is by definition a gamble if the probability distrib of outcomes are not the same it is not a gamble. You can still be wrong as probabilities are just that, the probable outcome not the outcome. The vote on each item is a Binomial distribution you have to decide what probability applies. If you decide 50:50 it is by definition a gamble as there is no edge
What is a gamble to you may not be one to me as my probability distribution might be different. We might both atill be wrong but if probabilities are with me I dont define that as a gamble. To call something a gamble you have to define gamble
Thats why high frequenct trading is so profitable. You play with the probability do it over and over again and minimise your estimation error by repeating your process. Explains why fundamental investing is so unsuccessful as the errors are too high
Senator is correct here. Horse racing is not a gamble if you have the correct information. Ie this horse likes a rail to its left, so everyone in the know backs it to win if drawn in stall 1. But like he says, still a risk probability - it rains and there is a patch of soggy ground so they install a rail half way down the course so they avoid that spot. Horse is winning and the rail ends and it is in the middle of the track and slows down.
The probability here is hugely in JB favour though if you have enough information...