Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Posted this in our discord group but my view of todays pro’s and con’s, feel free to add;
Pro's:
- Judge knows the FCA had ample opportunity to oppose this before now, they had no defence for the delay
- FCA worked with Amigo on the wording of the scheme documentation and did not oppose before 10th May
- Turnout is not an issue in relation to claims presented
- Debunked theory on share price growth when presented with bigger picture in relation to share price since IPO
- Judge knows it is not possible to present a menu of options when proposing an SOA, this is the option and this is the one that has been voted on
- FCA have made no attempt to draw a line in the land at what would be classed as a fair scheme, Amigo cannot work with this approach
- Rights issue is not possible with current business outlook and uncertainty
- 95% of creditors voted in favour of the scheme and typically understood that the average creditor could understand the implications
- FOS have voted in favour of the scheme as a creditor due circa £12m
Con's:
- Insolvency stance looks ropey at best, FCA have blown holes in this being a short-term reality and there are questions around the absence of cash-flow forecast
- If insolvency is not a reality then the basis for SOA voting would no longer be applicable
- FCA QC came across well rounded, knew his stuff and wasn't asking for the world
- Judge seems to support the option of debt for equity when it was explored by FCA, potential dilution could occur to get this across the line
Pro's:
- Judge knows the FCA had ample opportunity to oppose this before now, they had no defence for the delay
- FCA worked with Amigo on the wording of the scheme documentation and did not oppose before 10th May
- Turnout is not an issue in relation to claims presented
- Debunked theory on share price growth when presented with bigger picture in relation to share price since IPO
- Judge knows it is not possible to present a menu of options when proposing an SOA, this is the option and this is the one that has been voted on
- FCA have made no attempt to draw a line in the land at what would be classed as a fair scheme, Amigo cannot work with this approach
- Rights issue is not possible with current business outlook and uncertainty
- 95% of creditors voted in favour of the scheme and typically understood that the average creditor could understand the implications
- FOS have voted in favour of the scheme as a creditor due circa £12m
Con's:
- Insolvency stance looks ropey at best, FCA have blown holes in this being a short-term reality and there are questions around the absence of cash-flow forecast
- If insolvency is not a reality then the basis for SOA voting would no longer be applicable
- FCA QC came across well rounded, knew his stuff and wasn't asking for the world
- Judge seems to support the option of debt for equity when it was explored by FCA, potential dilution could occur to get this across the line
For the more sensible among us - https://discord.gg/tg452sFX
And one final thing to consider that I should have included in my first post there, is risk.
Not the risk of this share but what is at risk should the FCA take a hardline approach on this (I don't think they will). The implications of blocking the SOA is much greater than Amigo simply 'going bust'. The real real world impact is the colossal loss of 300+ jobs and 95,000 'active' claimant payouts - notably payouts to those who a payout would stand to benefit more than a standard borrower and at a time when many will have been made redundant etc.
It would also have a material impact on FCA revenue, access to credit for those in the sub-prime lending category (at a time when banks are clawing back lending).
As I said, do your own research but there is much more to the bigger picture than a company going under.
Please do what is best for you though and don't make decisions based on what other people post on here. I'm Scottish and do most things under the banner of 'f*2k it, it'll be a laugh' so maybe best not to follow me.
Evening all,
Now that the dust has settled for the day, let's have a look at this with a sensible head instead of the 2P BY MONDAY or 100P BY JUNE brigade.
Vote: Great result, done deal on that front and creditors meeting tomorrow is now a formality in the process rather than an event which will effect the outcome either way. SOA voting passed with a much higher threshold than I anticipated which is great for AMGOs lawyers to use as leverage at the court hearing.
FCA: As I said this morning, not ideal and interesting time to choose but let's look at it from the perspective of 'what do the FCA actually want' - one thing is for sure, they don't want Amigo going under. Can anyone tell me any companies that the FCA have forced to go under, would be happy to have a look if they have but from my research I can't see any history of it. The FCA want better terms for customers, that's a given, and they want the PR clout of achieving this at the final hurdle which is why they have picked this moment.
Based on their letter and plans to submit evidence ahead of the hearing, my thoughts would be that their evidence relates to board members shareholding and bonus payments in relation to the scheme and how that correlates with share price performance. They will want to document and showcase how GJ bought XYZ volume @ Xp and it now has a value of £XYZ. The question i'm asking myself now is, does this actually have anything to do with the scheme and can it be used as grounds for stopping the SOA? My thoughts are no HOWEVER I think AMGO will have to be seen to offer something to appease the FCA, bearing in mind that we are reliant of FCA approval for both re-lending and new products.
Long and short of it, I expect the FCA to present a case that is around 30% credible, Amigo will make some amendments to shareholder bonus plans and push it back to the FCA. The scheme has been voted for my customers based on current terms, should they stand to benefit a little further from percentages there will be no barriers however AMGO will be making the case that this is time sensitive in relation to their current burn-rate and as a business they need clarity to move forward sooner rather than later.
I'll be holding, could be stupid, could be a wise move. Lets wait and see.
Told myself I wouldn't get too carried away with the drop this morning but have now topped up 3 times this morning.
Holding for two big purchases.
Good luck to all - its been some journey and i’m really not sure what i’m going to channel all this energy into when it’s over.