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"The tendering process for a rig to drill Chikumbi-1 is due to close during the current quarter with an expected spud date later in the year, exact timing of which will be dependent on rig availability." Just looking again at this because it occurred to me that once the tendering process has been completed the Bod and engineering team will have to sit down to consider the best options and so we may not know the outcome of this before the AGM or even later. In saying at 9th April that the process closes during the current QTR means it could already be complete and awaiting the Bods decision so, although it seems unlikely on the last years track record, we could also conceivably get an update on this at any time. (Tuesday Please) Further... "The National Environment Management Council (NEMC) has approved the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) status for the acquisition of further 2D and 3D seismic data over the Ruvuma Production Sharing Agreement acreage, focusing on the Ntorya discovery area." As the NEMC approved an application there is an obvious intent to carry out these further surveys. I would ask that as we have already seen the road map through to NT8, would they be doing these surveys to better target those drills or are they looking for more deeper potential oil targets? Point being that if these eight drills are mapped out as shown in the presentation, then at the pace we have been going so far, what is the point in spending money at this stage searching for more unless of course the chase is on for the oil?
Preficisely drewky, I see there is lots of talk about demand outstripping supply. But clearly it isn’t that much of an issue otherwise these licenses would be signed asap. I think aminex are dealing with government officials who want things done a certain way and not necessarily the right way. Tanzania wants to grow economically but it also wants to do it mostly by itself. That is a pipe dream and they need to wake up
Not sure of your point Willow it seems that was a criticism of Tanz government and their pace they do deserve some of that, but my point was; it is AEX who must have applied for the (EIA) which was approved by (NEMC) so it is our intent to do those seismic surveys and my question is why now? Why, if we already know where the next 6 drills are going to be? (They have shown us the locations already). In my view there can be only one reason for spending that sort of money and that would be to chase the oil because there is surely no rush to do it otherwise? I wondered if others feel the same
Get the farm out done and rig tender complete by next month and get on and drill this baby! https://www.dropbox.com/s/b4tdls493h0lb5o/Screenshot%202018-02-02%2010.06.19.png?dl=0
Gas and Oil Drewky. Certainly since discovering oil @ NT-2, the lower drill target at C1 is oil, so the hunt for commercial quantities is most certainly on the agenda.
Petroleum From the Latin "Rock" "Oil" They need a bigger drill to get down there and grind on that Karoo formation...
Sounds like an agm question to add to your list Drewky.
No Drewky, no. The 8 drill programme has been modified as a consequence of the CPR. Despite the fact that AEX had already drilled the pad for NT3 that has been moved, albeit, not significantly for the new C1 drill. So all of those original "sites" were simply the initial approximations that will now be confirmed with seismics....
Moreover until the NT3 drill they won't even know what to expect from those seismics as regards Oil; that drill will tell them more than any seismics. The seismics would be done irrespective of Oil, to suggest anything else is just fanciful.... They have already told us that they will drill NT4, 5 6 and beyond only as GAS demand dictates. It will however give us a far better idea of how much is down there and where to drill for it.... None of us want another KN1.
You may recall that as a result of the CPR the TPDC requested that IO revised their Commercial Study. Yes this MAY have had something to do with the prospects for Oil but the Commercial study was about the EPS and nothing (as far as anyone has suggested) to do with Oil. To extrapolate anything more from this is just speculation and fantasy. Keep it real for goodness sake.
And I would think the seismics, if positive, would increase the value of the field. Not something the Zubs would want to do if they are out to get in cheap as some suggest on here. Same as doing the CPR and IO study.
Not trying to fantasize it Pete. I was looking for an explanation as to why we are going to spend that money now. It is clear that they intend to do it but we all know we don't have the money for it. As I said the drill locations were marked out and I accept they maybe moved and in fact in my question I did leave that possibility open however CH1 seems to be sorted and even you yourself have been questioning why the farm out now? The reason you ask is because you don't know and I am looking for some logical explanation because I'm with you, I cannot see why they are doing it now.
Another point is that they have applied and got the go ahead before we've drilled Ch1 and arranged this farm in which I assume will pay for it and when we look at the pace of things this last year, since when have we moved that far in advance?
Things may be happening behind the scenes at Aminex but like Brexit, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed so there isn't any guarantee that we will like what comes out of these 'discussions'. Neither is there a guarantee that both sides will agree terms so until we see the colour of the Zubairs money we don't know what way this will turn out. We have quite a bit of skin in this game but it's all to play for.
I do not think there IS any particular urgency to do the Seismics for Ruvuma. What makes you believe there is? we simply now have the "permissions" needed to do so as and when the timing is right. And that, for me, is once the demand for the gas dictates. We need funds for C1, Nyuni and South Kiliwani seismics and I believe both or all of these will happen before we do seismics on Ruvuma - UNLESS when we drill C1 we actually do find (commercial) Oil because that would change the complexion of things but I would be amazed if we were doing seismics over Ruvuma simply because of the likelihood of there being Oil in the region. To contrast with this the possibility that we do NOT (highly likely) find commercial Oil at C1? Are we raising money now for something that we might never use?? NO! The seismics for Ntorya are there for gas development first and foremost; Oil is no more than a possibility......
Did I say there was an urgency? NO! I said that AEX have applied for Environmental approval and they have got it! I don't disagree that they can now do the surveys as and when the need arises! My point was that it is highly unusual for AEX to work ahead of themselves and I, just like you, cannot see the need for doing seismics in the near future. I am therefore questioning why they are getting these permissions sorted so early because it is out of character with the companies usual pace. Your second paragraph supports me because as you state we have much more to do before this happens so again why apply so early? unless as you say on the off chance we do find oil, but again I guess we could be perhaps a year away before any action if so. I am also assuming all of these applications for licences and permits etc have to be paid for by AEX so if cash strapped why do things so far in advance of need? I'm not saying there is oil but NR made a big issue over the fact he felt seismics should be done and it appeared the two bods disagreed over it! I am looking for the reason why the bod have gone ahead of themselves on this, no more, no less. As said it is out of character for them! We know they are targeting oil and searching for more potential oil pockets was the only potential reason I could think of and I was asking people their thoughts on it. My thoughts are not cast in stone anymore than anyone else's and I may well be totally wrong but if I am, then the WHYs in my questions have not been answered. Why Now?
You've said just about everything in 27 different ways pinks!
So, Drewky NR thought that seismics needed to be done for the drilling of NT3 for goodness sake and that, at the time, was before they were drilling for Oil in NT3. So why now? why now what? Seismics? No, as I said there is no reason to believe that seismics are happening now! The permissions? may be because without them there wasn;t much point extending or approving a License?! IF not that then what? The farm out? Because they need the money for C1 drill , Nyuni and Kiliwani South seismics and drill and, just as possibly, ex-Tanzania acquisitions..... Bugger all to do, directly, with Oil. But enough of this crap, life's too short.
The crap Pete is you are not reading what I am asking and you are fixating on the word oil :-(( I shall just have to ask the horse at the AGM
So as I tried to explain; the "why now?" question for the seismics in my view is because it is "part and parcel" of the License extension and Dev License approval; there is bugger all use having a license if your ability to satisfy your drilling obligations is compromised by not being able to do seismics over the area in advance of drilling. Licences have fixed terms and drilling obligations; not to be able to do seismics over the area before drilling would be a big risk, both commercially and politically. If the demand curve for gas rises steeply in 2018 -2019 and we are required to drill NT4 and 5 in quick succession after C1 we may want to do seismics before drilling or defer the drill until we could... which would be worse? A drill blow out or incurring the wrath of the TPDC for not drilling to meet their demands. Take your pick. Apologies Drewky didn't mean to be so short.
Now therein lies a good alternative and logical possibility and though it would be really nice surprise to see requirement for 4 & 5 to follow quite quickly, somehow I can't see that happening for a variety of demand reasons. TBH I would still think we may be a year or more after CH1 before they are drilled. Like everything else the devil is in the detail we are not yet privy to.
The new license extension is likely to run only until 2020. If C1 isn't drilled until Q2/3 2019 that hardly leave much time to drill any more before the proprosed license extension actually runs out..... But that underlines the point of we are to do any drills after C1 within the current license extension and if we want seismics done in advance of those drills we can hardly leave the permissions for seismics until after the extensions have been approved because the license would be over before we got those permissions in place (they can take 18 - 24 months) and had time to use them.
It's a fair point but I certainly hope we are not waiting that long for Ch1
Ch-1 clearly will not happen this year, I’d be very surprised if it does. springtime 2019 I reckon at a guess. Happy to be wrong, in fact I’d be delighted. A drill seems to be the only thing to shift the sp north. Welcome the herd
Can you give reasons for your thoughts willow?