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...a tsunami of selling ?
They have had to borrow the money to cover costs up until first gas. That was first envisaged as 2024 end then 2023 end before being put back to 2024 end and now mid 2025.
This all being due to delays with the pipeline and issuance of the Development License. Which should be issued very soon.
Cash burn is circa $2.8m pa going by the annual accounts released. AEX had $3m left by December 2023.
So it seems prudent to have access to this cash should the need arise, which will most likely be the case come 2025.
On a positive note tax liabilities have been reduced to $8.19m from $9.92m last year. The remaining amount will be paid probably from gas revenues as any demand from Tanz Gov will face objections and take a while to settle by which time AEX will be generating enough revenue.
Delay in the pipeline build mainly yes
Thanks for your reply , so there has been a slight put back , probably down to the slow pace of the goverment .
Until 2024 end.... first gas now mid 2025
Share price is holding up well , but I am left wondering why the need to put this loan in position , when they already said that they had enough working capital until first gas .
A loan of dollars from ARA or Eclipse to TPDC doesn't have to involve AEX. It can be an independent financial deal, not linked to the field development.
Tanzania would have to start paying the loan back whether the field is developed or not, so that cannot be given as a guarantee or basis for the loan, in case something halts it.
Tanzania want a pipeline, ignore what it's for. ARA need dollars to pay for it. ARA lend them dollars.
ARA mention Oil several times in their 3D Seismic analysis. So as I have said, ANY trap that ARA drill could contain Oil. CH-1 is unlikely to because it is the same trap as NT-2 penetrates, so we know what is in it, but ANY subsequent traps, as I have said, could contain Oil. The most noteworthy mention is "Both the Karoo and Jurassic source rocks are now identified as being potentially mature for OIL and gas generation in the Mtwara Licence".
"Large structural and stratigraphic traps have the potential to host gas and OIL accumulations including, inter alia, a large untested mass transport complex prospect (“MTC”) which, in terms of structure and depth, closely resembles several of the large-scale offshore accumulations which await development."
"OIL and gas shows are noted in sands identified on mudlogs in Likonde-1 at the levels of the Jurassic post-rift prospects in the block, suggesting the bright amplitudes up-dip of the Likonde-1 well could be potential direct hydrocarbon indicators."
"Deposition occurred during the Early Jurassic in a partially restricted marine environment allowing additional potential OIL and gas source rocks to be deposited and preserved under anoxic conditions. Both the Karoo and Jurassic source rocks are now identified as being potentially mature for OIL and gas generation in the Mtwara Licence"
"The southern of the two mapped lobes is distinct as a separate prospect, but in contrast to the northern fan, the feeder channel has not been preserved potentially aiding up-dip trapping. OIL and gas shows were noted in sandstones in the Likonde-1 Jurassic interval which, when combined with strong indications of fan geometries significantly derisks these prospects."
https://aminex-plc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/APT-Revised-Resource-Potential-Mtwara-Licence.pdf
"The Problem We Are Bordering on Oil,”
"Keep your words to work, the problem is that we are very close to oil, whoever has the power should work and do it if he knows that he has carried all Tanzanians," Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, Dr. Doto Biteko speaking at the fourth Conference on the Participation of Tanzanians in strategic projects and investment in the country held in Dar es Salaam."-Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Dotto Biteko"
Great spot, Page
Energy Minister speaking about oil in Tanzania.
https://twitter.com/Hakingowi/status/1784831998512578944
...a tsunami of selling ?
Holding up nicely... Afternoon surge?
Have bought more this morning. Last chance saloon for cheap golden tickets, IMHO.
People should never trust the red and blue or the shown spread John. The real spread appeared to be 1.20 - 1.225 as you have shown.
Crusty the sell of 117371 at 1.22 was me buying a few to topup so the MM's are at it again.
Did you not realise the cost of 3D seismic over such a large area?
I am pleasantly surprised that over a period of four years, all that work and analysis has only cost Aminex just over $5
Imagine if they had gone it alone, that bill would have been over $20m
The benefits of having a good supportive partner has showed through in more than one way.
With enough non dilutive loan facility to cover current operating costs through to the end of 2026 to be drawn down only if required, it is a useful sensible back up to have in place.
As they stated with the farm out originally and restated this morning, there will be no need to call on pi shareholders for capital raising through to cash flow being generated.
There is therefore no potential raise hanging over this company. All positive in my view
Eclipse owns Ara Petroleum and just under 30% of Aminex.
So it is our Major, the operator of our field and our major investor giving a sub on preferential terms. More support. If evidence were needed of the continued intention to keep Aminex in existence, as opposed to taking us out, this is more of it.
Preferential because there is no repayment. The loan is set off against the farmout.
All good with me. Removes a doubt for the numpties out there.
Also all good with me is how much of our farmout carry is left. Future looks bright.
Interesting to note that work to date has already used up $5.4m of our cost carry. The Eclipse loan is expensive though is perhaps to be expected given the risks that cash flow could get delayed beyond mid 2025. At least dilution via a share issue has been avoided at this point.
Https://www.newvision.co.ug/category/news/uganda-tanzania-officials-discuss-energy-mini-NV_186856
Eh? What??
Rojo, I do tend to agree , just for once .
Key this week, a rebutall from Prosciutto if any on Wednesday.....
Try not to get too excited boys and girls - I don't think this is wonderful news.
No surprise if the SP slips back...
Seems to be quite a few sellers at 1.20 and just above - not sure this price will hold. Hope we see some buying.... really need that Dev License. Not long to wait though in my opinion - this week or next methinks. :0)
Hold the fort one and all , I am off to London for the day; some of us have work to do!
#homies...