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Celebrated highlights of the week
" Years not months StockCheque. lol " 1. Honest Tom
" Typically. there is a cloud right over NT-1 on today's Satellite view!" 1. StockCheque
Typically, there is a cloud of uncertainty over this entire company every day.
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Status:
Aminex has a negative working capital. This fact didn't make it onto the promotional 'silly list'. The 'Negative Working Capital' and the 'Free Carry' are mutually exclusive conditions. The ' Free Carry' isn't going to alter the fact that they don't have enough liquid assets (money) to pay for the short-term obligations.
What are the options?
1) Capital raise. This causes dilution along with share price weakness. This will tighten the noose around their neck.
2) Farm out part of the remaining 25% of Ruvuma. Becoming so eviscerated, they may as well call it quits.
3) Farm out of KNDL. This is the best option of the three, but approval / timing could become a serious issue.
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re: Oil discussions
Forget about the oil. There is a reason why Tullow left. There was no commercial quantity of oil discovered at Likonde-1 which is just North of CH-1. APT is working on a GSA... the G stands for 'Gas' and not 'Oil'. 100% of the proceeds of any liquid condensates, currently produced by the co-venturers, go directly to TPDC and NOT to the co-venturer.
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The acquisition of Wentworth may be at risk. The decline in WEN's share price is understandable. If the acquisition fails, Wentworth will revert back into its former 'abyss of despair' which Aminex currently occupies.
Tomorrow is a big day for the shareholders. They have an opportunity to converse with management. Your task is to find out if the emperor is wearing any clothes. The questions were designed to penetrate through the thin illusionary veneer. There is no copyright on the questions so feel free to ask them if Tanzania fails to do so.
Repeat of Questions
1) The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is ongoing. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
2) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are you working on?
3) The Scirocco deal has yet to obtain a 'Clearance Certificate'. Also, there has been no closure for a GSA, 25-year license or FFD. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. How long of a stall can Aminex afford to sustain?
4) Are you still on schedule for October gas production?
5) As a non-operator with no say, sway or control over anything, wouldn't the company be better off seeking a strategic alternative?
Encourage the takeover of Aminex.. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
We expect additional progress in the coming months on the well-testing of NT-2, the spudding of CH-1 and the workover of NT-1. We also look forward to the completion of the 3D seismic interpretation by the fourth quarter of 2023.
Lot's to look forward to. I guess the signing of the GSA and FDP and development licence will kick the sp off.
I hope in the next few days or so to avoid holding up APT...they can't do any work until they get approval.
My take on this RNS, along with predicted delays mean that there will be no gas delivery or income this year. Tanzania remains a basket case. I do however feel that ARA will see this through to production and in the longer term make a significant business in Tanzania, if the authorities let them. other than signings et... no real progress now expected before 2024.
It should certainly transform sentiment, from questioning things to now being very positive.
IT’s transformational in that it removes doubt from all the items we have been tracking and confirms everything is progressing in the manner that we had all hoped they were- opening the door wide for a raft of positive developments and updates over the coming weeks and months imo
Crikey ICB - he (or she) is a couple of grand down already.
I wouldn't say this was a transformational RNS but it's a good update of transformational things to come.
Late reported largest trade of the day so far from 8.13am a Buy of 1649000 at the highest price of the day 1.2p.
Seen it many times where transformational RNS lands - takes a few days for news to be soaked up - then sp goes on a steady climb - often doubling
7.5% is a rather disappointing reaction if this RNS is actually as positive as you guys think.
Let's hope it doesn't start to slip back eh ?
We received updates on all matters and complete clarity on progress and next steps.
That the seismic survey was able to optimise drill location and that a complete resource update is expected
Along with lots of other important updates
Entering the home stretch imo
"The Gas Sales Agreement ("GSA") in respect of the Ntorya Gas Field has now been agreed among the JV partners and the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation ("TPDC"). Signing of the GSA will take place upon approval by the Attorney General's Office."
"The Field Development Plan ("FDP") for the development of the Ntorya Area has now been approved by all parties."
"The Development Licence for the Ntorya Area has been approved by all relevant Tanzanian authorities and has been submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers for final authorisation."
"We are also pleased to report that APT is making great progress, including finalization of the GSA, FDP and the Development Licence"
So Cabinet of Ministers approving one, Attorney General's Office approving the other.
The above, plus the pipeline construction starting soon, tells me that the Government cannot wait for the SCIR 25% purchase to complete. How can they build a pipeline for a project that's not been signed off yet? In my view they cannot, so the signing will go ahead regardless of the SCIR sale status.
If SCIR deal was holding back our project the Government would just get the SCIR deal signed off today to make way for our project. But the SCIR deal appears to be fairly open ended, already moving the long stop date to end of August and could be extended again, but most importantly it is a deal that SCIR stated in RNS cannot legally be terminated, so it makes no difference how long it trundles on, it can't hold up the project as it's never going to be reneged on by either side, they have no way to legally renege on it, so just get on with our project and that deal will complete whenever it completes.
“the RNS gives absolute clarity on many things that the deceivers were trying to create doubt over.”
Spot on - that’s exactly what it has done.
Keep clutching those straws Aimster, you never know you might even get one someday.
Come on Haggis and Jolly, reel him in.
Wowzers
That’s one comprehensive and positive update
It's pretty simple. No signatures, no gas. Government need gas. So sign.
Aimster, what about the pipeworks recently delivered to APT for the CH1 well. Is this true or fake do you reckon ? Go on, have a guess !
Jolly … can we both agree that everything is just agreed but NOT approved.
Signatures in short order, imminent, etc. where have I heard that before?
Yawn...
What on earth are you getting excited about guys ?
More of the same old stuff.
I'm looking forward to prosciutto later.
I get the feeling aimster is only aiming to deceive.
Unfortunately for them the RNS gives absolute clarity on many things that the deceivers were trying to create doubt over.
Who to believe, the company issuing information via a regulatory news feed, or an anonymous keyboard warrior with no claims that can be verified? Hmmmmm!
This is progressing well towards the drill. A number of issues in final sign off with the Tanzanian Government. I believe as I have said before that AEX are wanting to get Government approval to complete the purchase of SCIR’s 25% before they drill. They have leverage at this point which they are using to good effect. It’s not mentioned but I am pretty sure the Government know it’s the Elephant in the room.
Well received RNS Up 7.5% and Number 12 on the Leaderboard.
should i even bother aimster, you only need one hand to count three more ticks and one two month delay.
are you blind or just being an ****?
the most important ones are the regulatory ones passed. gsa agreed. ffd agreed.
go to the back of the class and don't come back out untill you've grown up 🙄
Also it's ARA, a huge company with big money, big clout, and big suppliers, it's not the AEX of 5 or 10 years ago, a tiny small cap operating on a budget and trying to get a rig as cheaply as possible. The project is now being run by a professional with no corner cutting or begging for a cheap rig.
Ahh okay thanks guys thats a shame!