Member Info for BC2504

I would say the signed helium sales agreement would suggest they are focused on selling helium but each to their own…

This is simply an RNS that meets their regulatory requirements and nothing more. Not sure why you would expect anything else here...

Personally I think we will now be in a helium supply deficit for the next couple of years minimum and so the market is likely to be ever shifting for quite a while, with new supply being snapped up in longer term deals. I also think we will see a premium price for US based supply for security which isn’t factored in to the broad market. We can see this signs of supply security premiums with the 5 year contract @ $600/mcf with variable pricing uplifts announced last week.

Great spot, have signed up to listen, will be interesting to see if they reference hex.

I should add that the HEX modelling was done at $500/mcf He, so costs would be lower than the 210-240/mcf if He prices dipped to say $400 in an extreme scenario, as they would be paying less tax and royalties of course. If I had to guess, I would say the current plant running at full capacity, would be technically profitable until about the low $200s/MCF.

Eastern - in the interest of actually answering your question, Helix will be profitable if things were to go back to as they were before (my personal view is this is highly unlikely) - prior to the recent geopolitical ‘issues’, there was a slight oversupply of helium, and long term contract prices were around $4-450/mcf He. From the model helix used, you can crudely work out the economics of Rudyard is based on $175/mcf deductions (including tax, royalties, plant OPEX). The admin expenses of the whole company works out at about $33/mcf when the PSA unit is running at full capacity with the current membranes, or about $66/mcf currently (very roughly). So we are looking at a maximum all in ongoing cost of about $240/mcf at the moment, which will drop to about $210/mcf when the plant is at its current capacity and is likely to drop further when additional membranes are added. FYI - you may also consider that some tax incentives are likely in initial production years and that helium prices are currently 3x the pre-war price for spot and 5 year offtakes have recently been announced for $600.

Of course, we will never know for sure, as they have already declared they are sub 3% here, but it seems reasonable to me.

I had wondered if Edale were selling shares to fund other IPOs. This is exactly what they did to hex previously when they went under 3%, in order to fund RIFT IPO, I believe. Now, at the same time we have been dropping on large rounded sells the last few days, so have RIFT. RNS just dropped over there saying Edale are under 3%. I assume they may have been selling both companies down to fund other IPOs. Appears to have stopped in HEX for now, so hopefully we can see this go back up with some good newsflow upcoming.

NNWW - 1 of the 3 wells has been plugged. He provided reasons why the other two had not been plugged yet. You can see from the BOGC documents that this is a similar position to 10s/100s of other companies (not that ever being out of line is good, but at least it's not some rare/outrageous issue). The last meeting was held 2 weeks ago, but the minutes aren't out yet. Agree it is not a good look, but it appears to be getting sorted. Guess we shall see whether progress has been made when the minutes are released.

The Chester facility also packages research-grade argon. Interesting...

I am certainly no exploration expert else I wouldn’t be trawling LSE! All my research is amateur and through my own investment experience, reading scientific papers and reports from companies, as I’m sure many rely on here. I’m sure it would be fairly simple for you to recall and provide some examples given you’re the exploration geologist amongst us, it would be greatly appreciated as previously stated. I’ll leave the QHE chat to the QHE board as I’ve said before.

Punter - last message on this and then I’ll leave it here as we’re clearly not going to see eye to eye on this.

For one, I legitimately posted on QHE, and when others tried to make reference to HEX etc I said that I wasn’t here to discuss that and to focus on QHE. Secondly, I’m referring to depth separation between the producing section and the location of the issue. Clearly if the issue was 30ft from the production section it would create more potential wellbore issues than 1500ft away.

I was referring to incidents of damage to a production section 1500ft up when fishing lower down. Clearly Bo and the team don’t see it as an issue. As you say you’ve heard of this before, I’d be grateful for you sending over some examples of this.

Issues resulting in fishing are common, from what I have seen it’s about 10-15% for wells of this depth. For what it’s worth, I don’t think the fishing has a particularly high chance of working if it hasn’t by this point and there’s lots of information out there from aramco and academic partners that cover time and fishing success decay rates. Either way, we don’t know if it was successful or not yet (a whole different kettle of fish!).

Hi Punter, I think that is overstating the risk. The key point for me is still the depth separation. Obviously tools have to pass through the wellbore, but that is normal in any re-entry/fishing operation. The idea that this would easily damage the production interval nearly 1,500 ft higher is a stretch. This type of work goes on all the time, and personally, I have never heard of a production section 1500ft up being damaged enough they could not produce from it (not even considering the fact they have a second section they are going for). I’m not saying it can’t theoretically happen, but how often does it actually happen? I’d wager very rarely. Again, I think this is even less of a chance of being an issue when Helix have already stated the sensible fallback: leave the equipment in place and proceed with Souris. So unless they ignored that fallback and kept forcing an aggressive fishing job for no good reason, I don’t really see how this is a possibility. I’m aware we’re both clearly on either sides of the aisle on our confidence in the team, but I think this is a bit of a ridiculous avenue you’re going down. For example, slating the team for past ‘disasters’ is stupid. These kinds of issues are part and parcel of exploration, whether you’re helix or Exxon.

Hi Punter, regarding damage to the production sections - The stuck equipment relates to the deeper ultramafic section, not the main Souris helium production interval. From the RNS, Souris was encountered around 5,000 ft and the Red River a little below this, with the well going down to about 6,500 ft. The issue is well below the zone they are looking to perforate for production. My understanding is that the only way damage could

become an issue is if they kept aggressively fishing/jarring/milling for too long and created secondary wellbore problems but that feels very unlikely given the equipment is stuck well below (nearly 1500ft) the production zone, and they have already set out the sensible fallback of leaving it in place and proceeding with Souris. To damage the wellbore that far up appears to be highly highly unlikely.

>$600/mcf for a 5 year contract, wow!

Spran, which article was that quote from? The only multiplier I could see in last months (20/05) was 6x once consistent production was a goer.

Genuine question bags - why have you not just sold and moved on? If you truly believe the share price is going to continue to slide or something is wrong, is that not the prudent decision? Else, I’d love to hear what’s keeping you here because I can’t believe you’re sad enough to do all this chatting for fun…

Genuine question bags - why have you not just sold and moved on? If you truly believe the share price is going to continue to slide or something is wrong, is that not the prudent decision? Else, I’d love to hear what’s keeping you here because I can’t believe you’re sad enough to do all this chatting for fun…

Genuine question bags - why have you not just sold and moved on? If you truly believe the share price is going to continue to slide or something is wrong, is that not the prudent decision? Else, I’d love to hear what’s keeping you here because I can’t believe you’re sad enough to do all this chatting for fun…

Have no fear Punter, I am still buying :) 33.944 is me, and will keep topping up every week until I have helium gas coming out my ears :)