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hear not here in previous!
Sharky
AAZ and Shanta have followed each other over the past 12 months. AAZ has run hot which it tends to do so but it can be volatile on the downside. The liquidity issue is a problem with 115M shares and quite a bit is held by the owners/Directors. I have swapped out of AAZ after doing really well for several years to rebuild a new position in Centamin. I have kept cash position in case we see 90-95p again. My personal view is that we will get a retreat for the following reason that all concern events this year.
1. The production guidance is on the low side for GEOs. At 1700 gold this would be around 85p. The high gold price is helping to give some cover to say around 111p.
2. USA recession has not appeared yet and that has helped keep copper prices high as well hence the proximity of the current price.
3. The company arrangement on 50% copper provision is to high if gold is going down in production and copper is going higher in the mix.
4. The company is spending a lot on a South American explorer and we await to here when they will become a producer.
5. Overall it is the finances for this year that may disappoint although adequate to maintain a dividend.
If gold is peaking over the next week or so AAZ is putting a top in the chart and is declining. Production in both Centamin and Shanta in particular is set to rise sharply in Q3. AAZ may win Q1 but over the year other miners will share the limelight.
For investors longer term AAZ does have a good 2024 with delivery of the ZAFAR copper/gold mine.
There may be another clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan because of Nagorno Karabach !
Azerbaijan is in a lot stranger position than Armenia.
There are two mines given to AAZ in Nagorno Karabach.
What price AAZ when they take over those mines?
ATB.
Errr, I keep away form the tin pot regimes of Africa if I can help it. They bring their own stupid laws to scew the foreign Co's. Even though I grew up in Kenya.
Hence my above statement. But everyone to their own. Best of luck with Shanta.
GLA in whatever you are invested in.
ATB.
I backed the wrong horse! I topped sliced here a while back and put most of my eggs into Shanta Gold, and while I’m 30% up on that, and it will soon be better, it’s been moving at a snails pace, whereas this has steadily been rising. I wish I moved all over to here now. Oh well, you live and learn.
Another excellent RNS lands today. IR doing a great job these days. Shareholders used to complain about IR relationship with PI's !!
AAZ has been an excellent investment for me over the years.
I am surprised at times as the seller's are always there too. It ofen makes me wonder as to where their money is going to be invested in next ? ?
Not many mining Co's that have all the qualities that AAZ management possess. Excellent BoD.
Great relationship with the Azari Government.
Also very good relationship with Azari Banks etc,etc.
What is there not to like about AAZ ??
Enough of beating my drum.
One thing I would like to know , if anyone knows of a better Co. To invest in.
Thanks in advance if anyone can answer this question for me.
Also the jam tomorrow brigade !! What are they going to think when AAZ hits £2/3 per share ?
Not too long to waite either in market timeframes.
ATB and GLA in whatever you have your investments in.
Hi guys.
Very quite on this thread !! I suppose the ADVFN 2 threads are very informative and also very good. The one run by Matt and the other one by Wanobi. Over all ADVFN is rubbish because it is not monitored.
Anyway back to AAZ. As my previous post on here stated that minimum £2 by year end is possible here. The shareprice is moving in the right direction for sure. So don't get left out of this.
Patience being the Mantra here.
GLA and ATB.
Just try and compare the BoD of AAZ with many other AIM Goldies. Riza Vaziri is an excellent CEO.
Great relationship with the Azari Banks to boot.
No dilution at all since my investment here.
The problem of Nagarno Karabach ( Nagorno in Russian means mountains and Karabach means black forest in Turkish) will get resolved in good time. The two mines there will add a lot of value to the share price.
So patience required here.
In the meantime I have enjoyed the dividends over the years.
What is there not to like about AAZ ??
Regular RNS have been landing lately too.??
Cream always rises to the top.
I am expecting the shareprice to be around minimum £2. Or above after the peace talks come to a conclusion with Armenia.
Patience is the mantra here.
If anyone knows of a better investment in AIM please do post that information.
I am not a ramper, just saying what I know about AAZ.
Like they say " You can please some of the people some of the time but you can't please all the people all of the time ) or words to that effect !!
NAI ofcourse and please do your own DYOR etc.
ATB.
Yes I've also been a holder since the 15p days and yes I agree it is both massively undervalued and not worth trading given the large bid/offer spread.
I think one reason for the undervaluation over and above other mining peers is the increasingly complexity of their output and the inability to value it minus costs to give a PV valuation.
THS which I also have quote a P6 basket price and I wonder whether something similar might help here...
Yes I have been a holder here since 16P days.
You could not ask for a better gem in AIM.
"Gilar is a significant gold and copper project. Its lower zone has the potential to supply high-grade ore at a throughput of about 700,000 tonnes per annum for over 3 years to the agitation leach plant.
This will enable the evaluation of the remaining resources and expansion of the mineral resource estimate. The Company is very excited that Gilar can extend production at the current Gedabek processing facilities until Xarxar and Garadag are brought into production."
This is a bottom drawer company. It is grossly undervalued but well run. Not really a share for trading just take the handsome dividend which i think will be maintained and sit patiently until the firework display.
You've clearly done your research after that last comment.
they'll raise through more share whether they have other options or not. they'll want to take cash from the biggest and easiest place whilst they can, dilution at this stage isn't their problem
I wouldn't be against an issue of equity in the right circumstances & I trust the board would only do so if it was in the shareholders best interests (i.e. to fast track a much bigger prospect than the ones they are currently working on). However, credit lines are open to AAZ as they are well thought of in the country and they have a good track record financially. I suspect despite the abundance of opportunity they will prefer to take it a few steps at a time (rather than need to raise capital and go after everything available immediately) and therefore be able to roll over profits from Gilar/Zafar into other new mines.
Todays RNS may well be a big beneficiary of the money that starts to roll in and really push the profile of the company much higher up into the spotlight and finally start attracting large institutional investors. Whilst, as a private investor, there is always risk in small caps & especially in countries that you are not familiar, the track record of AAZ & their management, their current finance, standing in the country and the opportunities that they have to explore, not to mention the need for copper in todays world, creates a massive opportunity to but into a company where its market cap is a fraction of where it looks to be heading in the next 3 to 5 years.
Cplloyd thank you very much for helping new investors to get up to speed. It is likely rates are here for longer and older investors may have to get used to equity raising in addition to the credit facility but happy to trust management to be able to make the right calls to maximise returns.
The company will need to explain how the copper and gold output arrangements work with Azeri Government. In the past 1/6th of copper out was shared 50/50 with the government. It may have to swap around from copper to gold being shared. The second point is that copper mines do not have tailing dams expense like gold mines if the sand generated can be used to make cement.
New investors may wish to note that AAZ and Anto***asta stocks more or less travel together as they have done so in the past 12 months and are both mainly copper with some precious metal output. They are both recession sensitive stocks and as long as you are happy to put up with 2023 volatility if a real recession materialises, than future years look good at least for AAZ.
The new mines are underground. Gilar is very much gold and copper but the company is certainly transitioning to copper production (again the details of this is better explained in the coming month by the company itself).
The company has a track record of not issuing equity to fund growth and I would be astounded if it changed course at the current low share price. Maybe if we were 2 or 3 times where its at now and the opportunity was there to go big on one of the concessions that they were awarded last year (which will likely require much higher levels of funding than Gilar & Zafar) then funding may happen but the board own a lot of the company and will not wish to dilute their own holdings.
Major-Tom, everything is more or less factored into a share price, but it is the unknown that surprises to the upside and results in re-ratings. I have an oil company JSE that I bought at 70p doing exactly the same thing with a strong BOD, a track record and a new credit facility.
If we have to be negative then its the interest rate that despite being high is not as high as say venture capitals are paying and we can always do a favourable equity raise if we get the share price up. Much depends on the cash costs of the projects I will looking at in detail. Large open-pit ideally, and copper.
Agree with Charlie Danger Mouse. Investing in a company with bo idea what their growth strategy can be a recipe for disaster.
Luckily you seem to have choosen a company with a real tangible growth strategy and the wherewithal to execute it.
I believe it is a good RNS, the company have had declining production for a few years but have a ridiculous number of opportunity within new territories they have been awarded by the government. The company has a great relationship with the government and started to identify the areas it feels have the most potential for them to produce from in the shortest amount of time. There is a further update due by the end of March that will put meat on the bones in terms of medium term growth but the GIlar mine in particular (where work is well underway) looks like a fast track opportunity to ramp up production, that and Zafar are close to the existing facilities. The funds will help enable the company to fast track these mines into production and will hopefully mean the existing cash pile (plus existing mines production) can mean the dividend is stable for this year and next. After that, the new mines will hopefully be supporting the dividend, repaying the new borrowings but also expanding into the several other concessions that the company has. This share has been one for the future for a while but that future is rapidly approaching and I wouldn't be surprised if we are starting to see a rerate that could go a lot further than where the share price is now.
How do you know if its a good RNS, if you have no idea what the money is for.
Good RNS. As I am new I have no idea what the money is for, but implying an aggressive growth strategy. So many prospects I am looking forward to holding for the long run.... but I welcome traders who at the end of the day provide the liquidity.