Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
The placing was obvious and was required. No issues there. However, for me the big issue with this placing and probably the reason for the further drop today is the lack of credibility of the management.
Let's not forget. They locked in the profit from their previous warrants to "minimize dillitiom" now they are buying more shares with the profits from their last sale at a vastly reduced price, increasing their holding and issuing themselves reams of warrants again. What a shower. They will never get their credibility back. Looking out for themselves.
The placing was blatantly obvious. I was baning on about it for 2 weeks before hand. Not to deramp and buy in lower as some on here said but to make sure people were taking a placing into consideration with their investment decisions. As I have always said ramping cause more people to loose money than de-ramping. I hope not many bought into the ramping BS and can now buy on lower to maximise their returns.
Jarv, I never put all my eggs in one basket. I will be all in here at some point, When the time is right. However, All In means All in for my exposure to Arc. This will never go above 10% of my overall portfolio. IMO discipline is key when investing in small Cap mining stocks. I find that so long as I gaurd against losses the gains look after themselves.
Be careful people. This is screaming that a a placing is being worked. I have invested 25% of the total funds I have allocated to Arc. I will get to 100% eventually but IMO now is not the time.e to be adding. Each to their own, make your own decisions but be careful and think long and hard about committing any further cash to this until the funding requirements/ placing is confirmed.
Been travelling a last couple of day. Just opponent my ISA account and sad to see this drop below my 2p placing theory.
Am I the only on here who sees the need for funds. Noticed that SP Angels have been replaced by WHI. What is the chances that SPA couldn't raise the required funds above 2p and WHI are now try to het a placing away at the best price possible?
If Arc were trying to raise let's say £2m at or below 2p they would need to issue atleast 100m new shares. Add thisbto the Swedes divesting their holding that is a lot of shares to work though the market.
I really hope I am barking up the wrong tree here. Although I would load up at any discount placing price my current holding is already taking a hefty hit.
Surely the mamagemnt won't ruin the company valuation and credibility to just raise funds for Botswana or G&A. Surely they would just put Botswnan on hold, sacrifice salaries and ridenthisbout until the value of the Anglo exploration campaign is reflected properly in the company valuation.
Hi, I have been of the opinion for some time that the Ghanaian listing and the MIIF project level buy in will be the key drivers to share price appreciation.
I would be very surprised, given the importance of the project and the visibility of it Ghana, if there are not some Ghanaian big hitters waiting to buy in. I guessed that they will hold off as long as possible but will no doubt want to maximise their future upside potential returns. For this reason I always suspected we would see the Ghanaian listing, Ghanaian buying arounf the low 20s, then the ratification, then the MIIF project level investment, then depending how appealing the ALL valuation is after these milestones potential further offers for ALL.
I wonder if the quite substantial trading on Friday and the unusual, for the moment rise in valuation, if some of these guys have gotten wind that ratification may be soon.
Hopefully this is the case.
Agree diamondgeezer. Best thing to do is spin out the non Zambian buisness, reduce costs and incubate our exposure thebthebzambian exploration. IMO Arc would soar if such a plan was put in place.
Unfortunately, it is not in the interest of the management to do this so I doubt it will ever happen. IMO Botswana in nothing more than an excuse for them to continue raising funds so that they can continue drawing their exorbitant salaries.
Am I the only one think that Arc may be trying to raise to raise funds at the moment? And, that the Swedes selling down may be impacting this.
I have genuinely felt for a while now and mentioned on here that a 2p raise could be on the cards. If that is the case we can't be far off now. If that is the case we should see a rise post raise as Anglo ramps up exploration later this year.
Hopefully we get clarity soon as I cannot justify investing further at the moment when I genuinely believe I will be able to buy lower in the coming days and weeks.
Yeah good to see some positive momentum in the lithium / spod price. Hopefully it continues and can lead to a sustained increase in ALLs valuation. If the lithium narrative changes there will ba a lot more than Assore looking enviously at ALL
Seis, in my experience people who cannot take on other opinions, honest intents or not, often end up blinkered. The worst injustices and biggest losses I have seen PIs suffer have come when there is no or a stifled alternative, balancing opinion. I sincerely hope you never suffer this fate. I hope for all investors make a return on their investments. Investing does not need to be an advisarial pursuit.
2 of 2
Looking forward:
I feel that a placing is likely in the near future. How much is this required is not easy to accertian as there is no real clarity on the current cash position. If as some expect the first tranche of AA funds was consumed on outstanding / over due costs then the coffers must be almost empty. Considering the lack of clarity on current liquidity my guess is arc will require somewhere between £1.7m and £3.6m through until the end of of 2024. £1.7m if none of the initial AA payment was consumed by legacy costs and £3.6m if 100% of the initial AA payment was consumed by legacy costs. This would require new shares issued equating to 6% and 13% at current valuation or 7% and 15% if placing was to be priced around 2p. The current valuation looks fair however this lack of clarity on funding position and requirments for 2024 puts me off adding another tranche at the moment.
Looking beyond 2024 funding I fully expect that once AA ramp up exploration activities in Zambia we should see a decent sustained rise in Arcs valuation. How much of rise we see in the SP will IMO depned on how much future dilution we see over the term of the JV. Dilution of between 6% and 15% in 2024 may not be an issue. However the prospect of continued dilution in 2025, 26, 27, 28, 29 etc. etc. may result in the inevitable increase in the companies valuation not being reflected in the share price.
This is why I belive that the best course of action for Arc shareholders would be to spin out the non Zambian businesses and reduce Arc costs to a minimum to minimize future dilution and the potential drag this may have on dare price.
Unfortunately however I do not believe that this is in the best interest of Arc management and cannot see this being put I to action. In the meantime I hold, be cautious and add when the time is right.
HarChris, here is my take on Arc.
For clarity, before I am cast as a self serving deramper my current investment position in Arc is this:
I have invested in Arc numerous times over the last few years. So far I have broken even in all my Arc investments excluding my current holding qhich is still a wprk in progress. At the moment I am holding my initial 25% tranche of my latest investment foray into Arc. I will add further tranches as and when I feel the time is right to maximise my upside exposure and to reduce my break even price incase I decide to bail once again.
Now that is out the way. This is my view on Arc's current situation:
I believe that Arc's Zambian licences are exceptional. Probably the most prospective copper licenses in Africa. I belive that with the current political situation in Zambia it is fast becoming one of the most attractive countries in Africa for Mining investment. I am not so keen on the Botswana KCB licences. Will they find something? Who knows. I personally think that it is an unwelcome distraction from the main event and adds potential ongoing costs that we do not need at this stage of the Zambian / Arc story.
On the management I initially had faith in them. However, this began to fade when I started to see whay IMO was a disconnect between what the company were saying in investor presentations and shareholder events compared to what was being announced via RNS. I finally lost all faith when the directors completed IMO one of the most scandalous series of events that I have seen in over 20 years of investing. Heres the series of events thatvtook place to explain why my feelings. In February 2021 they held an investor presentation during which the categorically stated that the company was in its strongest cash position for many years and was fully funded for all activities, including drilling, through until the end of 2022 when they expected the company to be cashflow positive from the Cheyeza East Plant. 1 month later, as the share price peaked at all time highs the management cashed in their options and locked in their upside of this all time highs. 8 days later they announced a placing at 6.5p and the share price has drifted on a downwards trajectory ever since.
So my current position is a very strange one and not one I am entirely comfortable with. I am investing in a company where I have zero faith in the mamagemnt purely because I belive so much in the upside of the Zambian licences. Considering this I am very, cautious on position sizing, exposure and timing of buys. I am also very critical of the managment which leads to me to be called a deramper. I would label myself as a cautious investor trying to maximise my upside potential and reduce my downside risk.
1 of 2
Continued.......
Morning Fulmer, you coming round to my way of thinking? This summary is almost exactly my point of view on Arc at the moment and exactly what I have been chastised by yourself, Seis and Jarv for voicing here over the last few days.
Zambian assets = Top class
KCB licences = Speculative
Cash in hand = Minimal
£1.9m received Nov = Most likely largely consumed straight away on back dated, deffered expenses
Current Funds = Not enough for current ongoing admin expenses never mind KCB exploration.
All this equals = Funding required for ongoing admin expenses and drilling KCB
IMO only = We are being lined up for a 2p raise
Future funds = £0.5m due April / Novemebr 2024
Average annual run rate of expenses = ~£4m
All this equals = Ongoing future fund raises to cover ongoing admin expenses and KCB exploration.
IMO only = This ongoing dilution for overly expensive admin costs and KCB drilling will dampen the upside potential of the Zambian licences. Best to spin out the non Zambian licenses, reduce Arc admin to bare minimum, incubate Zambian investments, JV income will cover Zambian costs, Arc valuation will fly directly in line with JV success. Maximising shareholder value
Can you not see thay we have exactly the same aim here. Maximise shareholder, our, value and progit. BY the looks of it, with your endorsement of this report we also do not have all that disimalr views on the current status of Arc.
You 2 are unbelievable! The more I engage with you the more I start to understand the ramper with a cause accusations and the more I doubt your motives.
Fulmer, surely that is the point of these forums is to share opinions, info and ideas. It seems that you are actually on interested in pushing your unchallenged 100% narrative. Everything I have posted today has been honest, balanced and reasonable. However, I am sure you will use what I have posted to justify blocking me so you can live in your own little ramptastic, everything's rosy world.
Seis, do you really think that known outstanding drilling results is a justifiable reason to prohibit management purchasing shares in an exploration company who's core business should be exploring, drilling and updating the market on progress and results on an ongoing basis? If you answer yes to that will either be fibbing or showing your inexperience investing in natural resource exploration companies. Because, it 100% is not! One of my other holdings Atlantic Lithium is a perfect example of what director can do, even through periods of significant news flow. In the last years they have been subject to 2 NBIO's, announced a $32,9m investment by the Ghanaian sovereign wealth fund, concluded the $5m equity component of that deal, completed an oversubscribed $8m placing, announced the granting of their mining lease, announced the award of of new highly prospective licences, released several batches of positive drilling results and released numerous progress and cashflow statements. They've had more significant news over the last year than Arc have had in last 5 yet the managements have still managed to purchase ALL shares on several occasions in the same period investing over £1m of their own money.
You 2 are either kidding yourselves or are deliberately trying to mislead if you think closed periods have stopped the management investing in Arc.
The key question is why do the Arc management not feel that Arc are good place to invest their own hard earned cash. Truth is i do not know why they feel this is the case. However, I 100% know it has nothing to do with closed periods.
I am sure that any reasonable investor who reads this thread will come to the same conclusion.
Seis, as per my last reply to Jarv, I said that I accept what he has said as truth. I have moved on! Try to do he same please. The question now we need to consider is what is this potentially significant information / news being worked in the background. Given the current state of affairs in Zambia, I honestly cannot think of anything significant that would be classified as significant inside information. Similarly, given the recent update regarding Botswana which cleansed the market regarding drilling results and set out the imminent exploration plans I cannot see anything significant being worked in the background there either. This leads me to the conclusion it may be linked to funding or maybe a potential acquisition, an acquisition in Namibia has been touted by management as a possibility in the past. Either of the 2 option i come to as credible significant information being worked in the background will likely require funds to be raised. The SP action and trades leads me to believe that any placing would be around 2p.
That's my honest opinion of Arc at the moment and why I honestly fear a 2p placing.
Please try to stop the petty name calling and lay out your honest opinion of what is being worked in the background. Then I can properly consider your opinion.
Seis, in all my time investing, over 20 years now, I have never knowingly told a lie. In fact I am a big believer in karma and therefore in my life in general I do not knowingly tell lies. I would not even consider asking the company the closed period question. If they are indeed answering that question, in the current period in their financial calendar that is worrying. IMO it means that they are insinuating that something significant is going on in the background and to make such insinuations is unprofessional. Given this I don't want to be involved with regurgitating such inappropriate information on forums like this. In my experience more investors loose money by acting on supposed positive insinuations supposedly straight form the horses mouth than do by considering the views investors with an alternative and sometimes negative points of view.
Fulmer, I have never suggested, advised or encouraged anyone to buy or sell any shares in any company. Also, I have never taken any suggestion, advise or encouragement from any other investor at face value. Whilst I take on board all opinions I use there as nothing more than a starting point to research and to form my own view and make my own investment decisions. This approach has largely worked well for me over time. You really need to take your blinker of. I honestly think you believe all the information you are being fed by whoever you are being fed it by. Regarding the 2p placing question. I have some spare finds at the moment and would love to be ready to increase my Arc holding. The funding / potential placing question is the biggest issue preventing me doing so. I may be wrong but my gut instinct tells me it feels like a discounted placing is likely,.
Both, what any of us post here or other forums has zero impact on the company valuation. What we post here or any other forum should not influence any other investor decisions. I will buy more Arc when the time is right. In the meantime I will continue to post anything I feel is worth being considered by other investors.
Jarv, I will take you at your word. IMO it is strange for a company to confirm that they are in a closed period but if you say so I will give you the benefit of the doubt.
Condiering the financial results are not due means that the management must therfore be aware of information, which is not in the public domain that could significantly change the company valuation. I guess we will know soon enough if this is true.
If significant news is announced we will know that both you and the mamanagment have been telling the truth over the closed period.
If nothing significant is anounced then we will know that either you or the management have been telling porkies.
If the later turns out to be the case I really hope that you have been telling porkies to us rather than the management telling porkies to you. Management misleading shareholders would not be good for anyone.
So, working on the basis that something significant is happening in the background. Do you think it will be positive or negative significant news?
Given SP action over recent months IMO it must be likely that this information is negative rather than postive.
Looking at the company finances and price action. What's the chance of a 2p raise is being forward sold?