Member Info for Major-Tom

As far as I can work out. Elevra have already earned their current 22.5% stake by contributing to funding exploration and DFS. If theg do not proceed to fund their contractual share of the Capex I believe they will stay at 22.5% and retain their 50% offtake at market prices.

Hopefully start to see some news flow. Buying volume this week suggests that some are anticipating it soon. 👇

I literally have no doubts over the managemnt, Kazakhstan, the licences or JV agreements here. IMO this is literally just a matter of being patient u tol this catches the eye of the wider market.

From what I can gather, from their comunications, Elevra are trying to recast the JV so that the CAPEX is split equally pro rata on an equity basis.

Current split is greatly in favor of Atlantic. However, thats the price Piedmont / Elevra agreed to pay for the right to eran in and to secure offtake. IMO that is not acting in good faith.

I hope Atlantic stand firm and do not allow Elevra to back out of the agreement. Only issue I see for Atlantic is the fact Elevra already have the offtake agreement in place. Which could hinder discussions with other potential partners.

Ramon, are you sure. I thought DFS used 5%, then the 10% royalty was introduced in the mining lease. But I do not think it was every updated in DFS numbers kf economic assessment. Am I wrong in ny understanding?

Ceejay, as far as I am aware the fiscal terms in the DFS was a 10% free carry plus a flat 5% royalty.

Under revised fiscal terms the free carry remains 10% whilst the royalty is on a sliding scale of 5% through to 12%.

In thr DFS they used a benchmark long term assumption price of $1580/t.

Under the new fiscal terms the same long term assumption price would result in a royalty of 7% vs old rate of 5%. That would have a in impact on the NPV and IRR of the project.

Ceejay, I mentioned the DFS the other day. As far as I can work out the new fiscal terms will have a negative impact on NPV and IRR. However, there is a good chance that optimisations the reduce CAPEX and OPEX could offset that impact. I expect Atlantic have been working in an updated DFS to reflect these points ahead of funding discussions as any lender will know that the DFS in its current form is no longer accurate reflection of the project t.

Been in a few junior / exploration companies like this over rhe years. In my experience the touch paper is ignited when the drilling results start to catch the eye of the market. Looking forward to this year's drilling program. If we return some good intervals that catch the eye of the market and they realise we already have a JV in place with Endevour and Xinhai thus will explode.

N2S I haven't look3d back on the JV agreement since my original investment here some years ago.

From my notes I belived it was structured in 2 phases.

Phase 1 was the nitial earn-in were Piedmont agreesdto fund: $17m of exploration and DFS expenses in return for an initial 22.5% interest.

Phase 2 was a Development earn-in where Piedmont agreed to fund $75m of construction develdevelopment capex in return for and additional 27.5% interest. With the respective interests since diluted due to government free carry, MIF etc.

Have I missed something since I last held?

If Elevra do not proceed wirh the Stage 2 earn in then IMO Atlantic would be able to secure a similar or more likely better deal with another partner.

The implied project value of the Elevra stage 2 earn in is around $270m. This value is lower than likely current value due to the fact it was agreed a lot eralier in the development phase.

The clearest, current market based valuation for Ewoya, is the implied project value derived from the failed Assore bid. Around $750m.

So, given the current project status and increased project value, if Elevra cannot fund the stage 2 earn in requirements IMO Atlantic should be able to secure another partner on much better terms.

Yeah definitely a marked increase in buying volume. Maybe CC6 progressing / committing to project funding, Sinosure update, CBS / new CBS news or takeover. Position FAR id in means any news could come anytime. But then again no news could be just as likely. 😁

Been trying to work out wether to scale up my holding now or wait. If DFS is updated with new fiscal terms without adding in any optimisations we will probably see a reduction in NPV and IRR. I reckon with some CAPEX and OPEX savings from the optimisation and slight increase in the mid cycle SC6 price they use will mitigate reduction on NPV. Maybe even improve it.

What is your thoughts on when we can expect an updated DFS to reflect the revised fiscal terms and the optimisations ALL have been working on?

If you belive Atlantic will get Ewoya into production, I do and I belive the managent do, why would you sell up?

Once in full production Atlamtic will be a $bn company. There's no need to sell now. Atlantic should organically 6x / 7x over next few years.

Management know this so any offer would need to be significantly above current valuation.

I made a big mistake selling out here a while ago. After the spike after the initial CPTK news I thought It would never get back here at what i thought was a reasonable valuation. However, glad to get back onboard this morning at 33.6p.

Lets hope FAR can wave off the PONG with some good news.

Finance deals of this size take a long time. But wheels are in motion so let's hope not too much longer to wait.

If my memory serves me correct. Assore valued this at around £200m when the bid 33p. That would be around 27p with current shares in issue. Given the RAT surely this has got to now be worth £250 - £300m. Between 33p and 40p p/s?

Great post EEA.

I have re-opened my position in ALL over rhe last couple of days. Glad to get back in at such a great price.

The opportunity here is staggering. Ewoya staged development funding development the other licenses = potemtial Lithium major 10 years from now.

Took the opportunity to buy some FAR around recent placing price. Maybe some further downward pressure due to overall market sentiment. But IMO with MCAP around the £30m mark today's SP presents really good pong term value.

Yeah bad day for good news. Massive sell.offs across the board tofay excluding oil and gas.

Still, good news none the less so will hopefully have a positive effect on SP over time.