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Battery, the valuation was something that played on my thoughts when I refused to buy back earlier this year.
I agree that even with the Tier 1 potential, with no Anglo JV Arc would be over priced at £50m. I didn't buy back as I found a lot of what was being said in investor calls etc. was not coming though in regulatory news. And, IMO if the JV fell through Arc were overpriced and I would most likely take a hit on my investment. I am very risk adverse so didn't buy back even when my TA said I should.
However, with Anglo JV and Anglos ability to prove up the Teir 1 potential IMO Arc are under priced at £50m. As I said earlier I believe that the last RNS marked a distinct change in tone and narrative in the regulatory news relating to the JV. The last RNS gives me great confidence that the JV will be confirmed soon. Therfore, I bought back in as I believe Arc will be undervalued with the JV signed.
I expect a rise when the JV is announced however the big prize now is if Anglo can prove up a Tier 1 copper deposit. If they do Arcs circa 20% share of that deposit will be worth many multiples of the current £50m valuation.
I must admit, upon first reading, I furrowed my brow when I saw the cash posiiton. However, once you dig into the details it is clear that East Star have enough cash for the their operations this year.
This means we will see the Verkhuba and Talairyk will be taken through to a JORC a compliant resource from existitng cash. If either are half decent, the MCAP of EST should be closer to £25m than £5m.
From Results announced this morning:
2.2 Going concern
The financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis, which assumes that the Group will continue to meet its liabilities as they fall due.
In January 2022 the Company successfully completed a Reverse Takeover ("RTO") whilst simultaneously completing a placing that allowed the Group to raise £3.1m gross. Post transaction the Group had in excess of £3.5m in cash (£1.456m at period end) and consequently exhibits a strong balance sheet position.
On acquisition of Discovery Ventures Kazakhstan Limited the Group acquired the rights to multiple mining licenses within Kazakhstan. The forecast capital commitments of the Group have been analysed carefully in relation to expected spends on each one of the mining licenses and the board is comfortable that the working capital commitments can be fully satisfied by the current cash position. The major capital commitments of DVK and its subsidiaries can be seen in Note 29.
These considerations combined with other mitigating factors (Directors are prepared to forego salaries if necessary to support the Company) that the directors have a reasonable expectation that the Group has adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. Accordingly, they continue to adopt the going concern basis in preparing the financial statements.
Lifestyle company. Lol. You are ckearly missing something here. They only listed in January last year and have been progressing at pace ever since.
Founder and CEO Alex Walker owns 11% of the company and has moved his family to Khazakstan to focus on running the company.
Co founder and technical advisor Rainer Ellmies owns around 5% of the company.
Largest shareholder, the Billion $ Flannery family, are very experienced, proactive and successful investors and own 16.7% of the company.
EST is pretty much, as far away from a lifestyle company as you can get. Fully aligned and fully committed management who are progressing at speed with the full backing of an experienced and successful Cornerstone investor.
Never quite sure what to make of it when buys are listed as sells. At the end of the day it is simply a trade below the listed mid price. Have I done well to buy below the mid price? Should i be worried that someone is willing to sell below the mod price? Who knows? Never been able to decide. Fo4 now i am just glad I was able to pick up some more shares so cheaply.
Yes Akhtar, Anglo already have a decent size team in Zambia. Hopefully they are ready to hit the ground running and get those drill rigs turning. They only have 3 and half years to spend $24,000,000 on phase 1 exploration so I am sure they will want to make some significant progress this year.
Hopefully when the confirmation of the JV comes it is accompanied with exploration plans for this year.
Apologies, seems my typo has led to some confusion.
I was hoping to kick off some constructive conversation on what people's thoughts were on Anglos exploration/ drilling plans. But it seems I had the opposite effect.
For too long this BB has been taken over with deramping , defending against deramping and tit for tat name calling.
Hopefully once the JV is confirmed and the Anglo exploration team kicks into action we can put all that negativity to bed once and for all.
Could be an exciting couple of weeks for SOU. Significant news expected from Sound Energy PLC @soundenergyplc over the next couple of weeks Phase 2 financing expected by the 28th of April. Thjnknthat this insinuates the farm out is close too
SOU had its haters, for good reason in mind. But a very different proposition now. One of my biggest ever profits was made here. Hoping for another good return this time.
The Company said they were extending the EA until the 21st to "accommodate the completion of certain outstanding steps" Has anything changed to suggest that date is any less certain?
It may be related to cadastre, it may not. It may be confirmed before 21st, it may not. Anything is possible. Personally, I think the last RNS from ARCM was a lot more assured than previous RNSs. Therfore I expect it will be confirmed by the 21st.
With 9 out of the top 20 targets previously identified by Anglo / Equinox within the land package that will be covered under the JV there are plenty of options.
Previous ranking of targets from Anglo / Equinox exploration works that fall within JV land.
1. Kalaba
2. Mboma
3. Fwiji
4. Cheyeza
5. Ngambu
6. Kalaba Extension
7 Muswema
-
11 Nayambw3zu
-
16 Chihindi
Once Ango take over exploration activities we can expect a marked increase in the pace of developments. Hopefully we see multiple drill rigs on site this year. What's people's thoughts on which targets Anglo are most likely to test first?
Damn predictive text.
AAZ are another good copper play. Very different proposition to ARCM but got great expectations for them. Energy transition resource companies should do very well over the next decade. Just the start of the cycle and both AAZ and ARCM look to be in the right place at the right time.
Hoping that AA are ready to hit the ground running and ready to start those drilling rigs turning.
Hopefully see the SP continue to rise through to thr 21st. If JV confirmation drops 21st as planned should see a significant re-rate. If JV confirmation is accompanied with AAZs drilling plans for this year could se a very significant re-rate.
Been building a position back in SOU over last couple of days. Was previously invested here, sold out during the Badile drill. Seems such a long time ago.
Its been a long old wait. Hope I have timed mh re-entry well.
I have been very cautious with regards ARCM and AAZ.
However, following the last RNS / extension, I feel as confident as I ever have that this time the deal will be / has been signed.
The fact they were happy to extend for exactly 13 buisness days rather just go for a calander month tells me they are confident on timings.
I also suspect that the JV agreement has been signed and it is probably just a matter of co-ordination of announcements.
There was a marked change in tone and narrative in the most recent RNS.
Compare the 7th of February RNS:
"The parties have agreed to a short extension of the exclusivity period to 31 March 2023 to allow for final internal approvals and signing of the definitve joint venture agreement and ancillary documents".And, "Until the signing of the definitive agreements there can be no guarantee that Arc Minerals or any company in its group will complete any commercial transaction in relation to its Zambian assets."
With the 31st of March RNS:
"To accommodate the completion of certain outstanding steps, a 13 business day extension to 21 April to the exclusivity under the letter of intent with Anglo American has been agreed." And, "I am very pleased with progress made to date and look forward to updating shareholders in more depth soon."
7th of February = extention to enable final internal approvals and signing of the definitve joint venture agreement.
31st of March = no mention of outstanding internal approvals or signing of the definitve joint venture agreement.
7th of February = standard cautionary note, until the signing of the definitive agreements there can be no guarantee bla... bla... bla...
31st March no cautionary note.
Go figure!
Looks like some positive momentum in the share price. Hopefully continue to rise through until next RNS. Things seem to lining up towards completion of the JV transaction. Glad I bought back when I did. Not long to wait to find out if correct decision or not.