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The Jan/Feb issue was already known about. The important bit for me eas in March things were well up to speed and over 8000oz produced, which they expect to maintain for the rest of the year.
The share price started going down when they announced the Lithium exploration licences.
I think there was a sense that dividends were incoming, but this was replaced with a concern they were going to spread themselves too thin, rather than concentrating on the core business and spending capex on expanding mine life and Douta.
If they convince the market that this is all under control and can even pay a bit of a dividend, the price will go up quickly.
At current gold price, THX will be adding an extra 20 mil USD to annual income when compared to mid Feb gold prices. That's 25% of current MCAP, which was already undervalued. I know gold miners are out of favour, but this is getting daft now.
It's a coin toss until the report comes out. Good report and all will be fine, bad report and it's curtains. That was the reality back in July and it's still a waiting game.
By the time theyve gone through the whole design, development and test process, it certainly means a good chunk of additional billable time.
I didn't expect Chelverton to be out this quickly. That has to be a massive positive for the share price moving forward.
****, cplloyd addresses these concerns below far more succinctly than i have, but if you're struggling to find info online, then head over to some of the other message boards where you will find links.
And to pre-empt I told you so's, while this situation hangs over AAZ, there's every possibility it drops to the 40's and it probably wouldn't be a good thing to buy unless it resolves itself.
As an aside to below, the political situation is very concerning and a material risk to the company. If it sorts itself out quickly then the company should be fine, if the divi needs to be cut temporarily then although not being ideal, I don't think that in itself is a major issue that a couple of pence a share isn't paid out for 6 months. If the government decide to get permanently difficult, that's a major problem.
But the dam doesn't need fixing. There have been small scale protests about the planned position of the second dam, in the mean time they were raising the original dam, which again has been RNS'd. Since the small scale protests there have been independent tests that show all is in order with the dam. It's all there if you actually read the RNS's.
Unfortunately there's political issues in the background, with the President getting involved, making statements that he now needs to be careful not to lose face, and until that sorts itself out THAT is the danger hanging over the company at the moment, hence the risk adverse selling out, nothing to do with an established mining company taking out a £30million debt facility for mine development several months ago.
This is down to the high 60s because of the issues surrounding the tailings dam and political issues, nothing to do with the very reasonable levels of debt taken out to increase the production. The drop from the 90s has been since the protests and we all know it.
I agree with much of the last post. Everyone knew first pour was coming this month, they've announced what was signposted. This in itself is a good thing, but already priced in. In my opinion (and I'm the first to accept I may be wrong), the big money is waiting to see that the previous operational failings at Yanfolilla have been sorted for more than a half year basis and Karoussa can be ramped up to nameplate capacity without any issues. The transition to u/g mining isn't as straight forward as some people think either. However, at this point in time, things are looking positive for the first time in a while.
It might need another couple of pieces of good news to push up to a £15 mil valuation, but surely it deserves to sit at £10-12mil mcap at present.
It's certainly the most liquidity I've seen since I've been invested. Having said that, the only reason I'd want to see buybacks rather than dividends would be if Chelverton wanted to liquidate their position (Not that I'm suggesting they do). The good thing is they have options now without cratering the share price, which should help increase the share price.
What's going to be the news event that snaps the rubber band holding this share price down. It's becoming more and more of a mismatch to the fundamentals.
And that's a very simplistic way of saying they're spending money building new mines for near term production increase. Anyway, this is a discussion that's only going to go around in circles, so I'm going to leave it there. Good luck if you're invested, if not, I hope you get your buy in price.
The current main pit nearing end of life is well known and been well publicised . If you've followed the company and RNS releases, it's all there and to suggest there's a sudden grade issue is disingenuous, it's been signposted.
In regards to the cash position, since Q1 they've sold 2.6 million of gold and have 9.6 millions worth of inventory to sell, so the effective cash position is still 22 million, even if cash in bank at 31st March, which is a snapshot on that day, was 10 mil. This isn't stock in a warehouse you can't shift, it's copper/gold and worth face value.
In the mean time, they've been constructing their new mines due for the end of the year, built a new flotation circuit, procured new mining equipment, continued with a major exploration program and paid a dividend.
As it's not an exploration company, when the new mines are built by year end (and this company has a track record of building to time and budget), a major processing plant is already built ready and waiting.
It's a set plan created and followed by seasoned professionals, not 'chucking money at it'.
Correction, I meant largely flat from Q4
As stated, while production figures are by no means great , it was well flagged that production wasn't going to be this quarter.
With regards to cash position, if you consider cash and inventory, plus the sales after Q1, the balance is largely flat from Q2, not the big drop being alluded to here.
All this whole mine construction has already commenced, extra flotation circuit being constructed and prepayments for mining equipment being made, so not all doom and gloom.
You've clearly done your research after that last comment.