focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
SP is in serious trouble here. Wait for the turn rather than guessing the bottom.
Todays RNS looks fine to me as we are in a transition period. SP does not reflect the true forward value of this well run company.
Everything hunky dory and just sit tight and wait. This is a well managed conservative statement company.
I love their thinking.
If anything the announcement understates the drill results. In the table showing the drill results every hole produced some very decent results. Clearly its early days but the results but meaningfully add to the already decent resources estimate which has already been increased in march this year
Great news which should stop the downtrend in SP. Production soon as well.
Centamin down and Anglo up........simplistic correlations often wrong.
AAZ has been in line with CEY all year. CEY currently leading the way down and AAZ to align with them. CEY divi less generous than AAZ this year. Expecting AAZ to shift to 100-105p sometime tomorrow.
Expecting pullback to test 105p support line probably tomorrow. Still out of AAZ, but hope to re-join in due course.
production figures a bit low
Market has disappeared for this now, not a good sign.
You're either missing the point or choosing to ignore it for for a reason that I don't care about.
It's simple .. If cash and liquid assets fall, whilst spending and debt increases then that increases the ev ratio which lowers the value of the company as the purchase cost is valued against mcap plus debt minus cash and liquid assets
This is not an opinion it's basic book keeping... Anyway, we'll see where this is by July, GL in the meantime.
And that's a very simplistic way of saying they're spending money building new mines for near term production increase. Anyway, this is a discussion that's only going to go around in circles, so I'm going to leave it there. Good luck if you're invested, if not, I hope you get your buy in price.
That is a very long winded way of saying capex is up and production is down.
Cash is the only thing that matters, the less of it there is and higher the costs the more likely dilution is.
Debt revolver will kill anyone paying more than a £1, I reckon this is going to 60p but we'll see.
The current main pit nearing end of life is well known and been well publicised . If you've followed the company and RNS releases, it's all there and to suggest there's a sudden grade issue is disingenuous, it's been signposted.
In regards to the cash position, since Q1 they've sold 2.6 million of gold and have 9.6 millions worth of inventory to sell, so the effective cash position is still 22 million, even if cash in bank at 31st March, which is a snapshot on that day, was 10 mil. This isn't stock in a warehouse you can't shift, it's copper/gold and worth face value.
In the mean time, they've been constructing their new mines due for the end of the year, built a new flotation circuit, procured new mining equipment, continued with a major exploration program and paid a dividend.
As it's not an exploration company, when the new mines are built by year end (and this company has a track record of building to time and budget), a major processing plant is already built ready and waiting.
It's a set plan created and followed by seasoned professionals, not 'chucking money at it'.
It's a grade problem and they're chucking cash at it to try and fix it. If you process twice as much material and don t get twice as much production then there's something wrong... Cash was 37 mill at 2021 EOY, 20 million By 2022 and now 10 million just three months after that. Debt revolver will be getting drawn down from June onwards at this rate.
From Q1 update...
49 per cent. year-on-year increase in copper production to 847 tonnes (Q1 2022: 568 tonnes)
o Ore processed by the expanded flotation plant increased to 193,000 tonnes (Q1 2022: 104,000 tonnes)
· Gold production of 6,741 ounces (Q1 2022: 10,040 ounces)
o Agitation leaching plant idle from 11 February to 24 March as ore now processed on a campaign basis
· Silver production of 22,566 ounces (Q1 2022: 50,674 ounces)
Cp spot on. Those who put it in the long term draw and enjoy holidays and only view the share price every 6 months have no problem especially if they have no cash calls to worry about for the next 18 months. The very proactive managers wait for the best prices they can get usually to correct the occasional investment/trading error somewhere else in the portfolio. Tony
Cash was always going too reduce, as was production. The company has been criticised in the past for not putting the cash to work, or pay more dividends and now it commits to continuing the dividend through the growth (thus meaning debt will be required to fund the new mines) people get the jitters about that too.
Gilar/Zafar will need to be partly funded with debt, which is in place & more will undoubtedly be available as yet company is well thought of by banks in Azerbaijan, Gilar/Zafar will in then in turn keep the divi flowing, service the debt taken on and contribute towards the other new territories.
There are plenty of explores out there that require less capital, but don't have the infrastructure, know how, experience, reputation and government support that AAZ has, not to mention the expansive portfolio of producing, near production and exploration assets that is on offer here. I'm sure the next 12 months will provide higher and lower share prices than today but as I've said before, I believe the real money to be made here is a long term view, so I guess t is personal trading styles that will determine if people want in or not.
BushyTailed could be right. No mention of costs and inflation. You need to work it out. Its negative. Share price that was overbought is heading towards oversold.... then back up again at some point.
Thank Tornado...
Cash position is the problem for me even if production numbers where expected...
You can't half your year on year cash at hand and then half your production over the previous quarter.
Cash in lags cash out... Regardless of reserves etc, cash flow is king and on a balance sheet basis this is looking like it's in serious trouble.
Number one rule.. Cash leaves before it's received.
Correction, I meant largely flat from Q4
As stated, while production figures are by no means great , it was well flagged that production wasn't going to be this quarter.
With regards to cash position, if you consider cash and inventory, plus the sales after Q1, the balance is largely flat from Q2, not the big drop being alluded to here.
All this whole mine construction has already commenced, extra flotation circuit being constructed and prepayments for mining equipment being made, so not all doom and gloom.
Bushy
It was well flagged it was going to be awful. A few people here have jumped in very early. They will need to do some serious average downs later on. The divi has to be suspended as they can not borrow to give out in divis.