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Well that'll be why infamous losers have been showing up here recently.
Terrible update
Fortissimo
Hence why I have taken a vacation from AAZ. The second quarter will be another poor show. AAZ will likely improve in Q4 this year. I suspect we could see an 80p handle here by early summer. It should be a great stock to hold in 2024 and could be 160p in 2025. A lot of patience and acceptance of volatility needed for 2023. I will reinvest after it gets through the low and be one of the investors to help get it back up. Tony
all going well. And I suspect that future figures will be ahead of the timescale.
I might have missed the lowered forecast rns but was surprised on Q1 performance. Significantly down on Gold/Silver and up on copper. I think the move toward copper production will work out well in mid term as think Copper will be rising with demand. That said, considering the cash pile was $37m Dec 21 and is now $10m, (and that's after some high metal pricing periods) it shows the weakened cash generation on lower output. Add to this the huge cash requirements to scale the business up, I can see the debt facility being tapped soon and the stock enter the inevitable development dip or curve, where debt mounts ahead of what will be higher production. Always a period of weakness. Long term, I like the company ambition to move to mid tier producer but that $33m debt facility is not going to enable it. They are going need 3 or 4 x that amount. Where's it going to come from?
Corrected data
1979 to 1984 gap
1989-1991 gap
2006-2019 gap.
Technically this is not good for the gold chart.
AAZ quite often predicts what may happen to gold later on. USA Inflation data due in an hour. USA has a gap in the gold chart 1993-2003. AAZ is suggesting the gap gets filled. AAZ is often the first precious metal miner to retreat. Whoever sells here has a lot of foresight on what may hold later today. We shall soon find out if the seller has got it right again.
Dear God, If that is the same Bwana from Amur Minerals then this share is in trouble.
My guess much of the drop is down to reports of renewed fighting in the last 15 hours. Yes, yes I know the companies activities are far away from this but some investors are skittish...
Yes, skirmishs, of no impact to AAZ as always , provided a nice chance to top up though, thanks panic sellers :)
Looks like there's been some skirmishes on the border again, that's the only other potential cause I know of
Good morning.
I think the drop in the shaeprice today is possibly people moving their holdings into an ISA.
I have just asked my broker to do a bed and ISA transaction for me. It will take a few days for them to do that according to them as they are quite busy. ISA season !!
Also the TAX laws has been changed.
I can't see any other information for the drop in the shareprice.
ATB and GLA in whatever you are invested in.
Hi Matt, I did not know you posted on this thread.
ADVFN has banned me for the time being.
Hence I don't post on there.
I call a Spade a Spade !! LOL all the fun of being a poster on these BB's.
Link to today's Investor Meet Presenation by Reza Vazeri & Steve Westhead:
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/investor-presentation-296
New SP Angel Price target for AAZ of £2.10 here:
https://www.share-talk.com/sp-angel-morning-view-todays-market-view-thursday-30th-march-2023/
Good afternoon all.
Tony, this is a free BB. I have my views and you have yours. We as investors have our style in investing. Not many investors are similar in their investments. You have your style I have mine.
AAZ over the years of my investment has been very good for my portfolio. I did sell out at times and have bought back in again.
I am also a very well traveled man. I also speak Turkish fluatly, witch has helped me a lot,as a lot of Azari's speak Turkish. I speak 6 language in all.
If you go to the Wanbi theard on AAZ on ADVFN ,
I helped him set it up.
My postings there told Wanobi when I sold out and when I bought back in. He was an amateur inventor in those days.
The last time I started to load up AAZ was around 62 P. All the way up to 90 P. Fully loaded now.
I don't have to ramp AAZ here at all. AAZ will prove itself IMHO ofcourse in time.
I am an investor not a trader by nature. Most money in the stock market is made by sitting on your hands than trading in and out. I have been an investor in the stock market for around 40 years.
Oh' I am new in my postings on the LSE.
ATB and GLA in whatever you are invested in.
I think Tony is arguably correct if you apply zero value to exploration targets/mines not yet under construction but in development. You can look around over the years at companies that have had markets caps that were hugely elevated on the back of potential but it was clear they would need to dilute to nothing to eventually get to the position of being a profitable producer.
If the board here can use the cash flow of the existing mines to get Gilar/Zafar going and in turn use the cash flow to feed into Xarxar/Garadag whilst paying a dividend and exploring the 50 or so addition exploration targets that they have (not mention the already identified potential of the likes of Demerli/VEjnali where there are already previously functioning facilities) then it would seem that there is the potential for the company to grow far more than the 4 times they are targeting by 2028 and without dilution, as it has been proven credit facilities are available to them.
The global need for copper over the short to medium term backs up the plan to transition the business but I would be surprised if gold deposits were not found in exploration. I think Tony maybe a slightly different style of investor to me, my view is that if you identify a company that is ran well, in a sector that there is a growing need, they have an abundance of opportunity to grow and has a proven track record then it is worth riding out the short and even medium term fluctuations shorter term traders will inflict on a less liquid share. Further, it is probably worth using the downwards fluctuations to fill your boots for the coming rise. I'm sure trading in and out and looking at AAZ in relative value terms to peers based on more short term signals/comparisons could also be profitable but I think the money will be made here with good old fashioned patience.
Hell that is a really pessimistic point of view. A sensible investor looks at Dividend the NOW and very much to the future. The company has a clear view of how to ramp up production and there of course some potential headwinds. The management is so level headed and professional. The transformation to a majority copper producer backed up by Gold is wise. I could go on but to say the company is overvalued seems crazy to me. Each to his own and you are of course entitled to your opinion as I am mine.
Only need to go back a few months and there was a few posts on here suggesting that the company wasn't engaged enough with PI's.
Majority welcome regular updates vs the alternative in the same way that i recall folk wanting further information on the expansion plans.
The company is now delivering regular updates.
SP is still recovering and good to see the upside production case set out with timelines attached.
Bwana
AAZ are not ramping the share price at all. I welcome the change to provide an investment story. I certainly did not say they were the source of ramping. I have given folks here an opinion of how AAZ moves with gold prices and any pull back on AAZ is not a negative reflection of what the story would be in 2024 and beyond if it is gold doing the retreating. Tony
I think AAZ has a new PI relationship team now.
They can give all the information they like and why not ? They are not telling lies .
I won't sell a single share until the share price is multiple of current share price.
Then again everyone to their own. We as PI's have different perspectives. Everyone to their own.
I have full faith in Reza Vazri and the BoD.
In the past there were always complaints by PI's that they were not getting enough news !!!
Now some say the Co. Is ramping by sending too many RNS 's !!
You can please some of the people some of the time , you can't please all of the people all of the time.
GLA shareholders and ATB also wherever you are invested in.DYOR and NAI.
Expart
We are in for a chaotic spring, especially in May. Whatever happens to AAZ on the downside, will happen across the commodity sector and other precious metal miners. The issue with AAZ is that it already had a marvellous run and it has been carried by both the price of gold and copper. The current production profile is modest and the stock price valuation at $1650 gold price is just 70p, $1715 gold is 80p, $1780 is 90p, $1845 is 100p, $1910 is 110p and $1975 is 120p. The Q1 average is around $1894 on futures gold prices. So the correct buy in price is around 107-108p based on the entire Q1 average. AAZ is running to hot on the asking price. It is still following gold rather than copper and that will not change until 2024. Buying a share on a ramp racing ahead on the average Q2 price which many think will be lower is possibly not a good idea. For those who believe gold goes on a blast off in Q2 then by all means buy. AAZ is likely to correct to the average sold prices now in 2023 and it will behave like a British stock on earnings. Tony
Fortissimo, you're not taking into account one important near-term positive: A strongly falling dollar could boost copper and gold prices far beyond the 'risk off' trade you perceive the latter to be. I'm estimating DXY down to 0.9 or 0.85, copper >$13,000/t and gold >$2,700/oz this year. That's consistent with the monthly charts for AAZ, copper, silver and gold, all with an extremely bullish MACD cross.
AAZ certainly doing its best to attract new investors and I don't think I've seen so many rampy RNS's from one company in such a short space time. It's like they are on steroids. Unfortunately, this is a market that is not interested in the next few years but the here and now. Sad but true. I like where AAZ team are going regarding a weight switch from gold to copper. Makes perfect sense with copper shortage looming. However, they are never going to get close to 175koz equivalent without 'substantial' funding. Near term, with cash of $32m+ yes they should be able to get into the 70koz equivalent level as indicated but this is still some way from the 85koz equivalent they were doing in 2018 or 2019 and the share price was 85p and 150p+ respectively. So certainly upside ahead should they deliver 85koz again but the lack of information on how they plan to fund beyond the near term or mid term is what will hold the stock back. They haven't stated what the expected Capex is to get to 175koz target. And there's a reason for that! Anyway, the company looks like it's making the right noises and I'm sure with the help of the Azeri gov they should find a way to finance the bigger projects. Whether that means they retain the 49% profit interest is anyones guess but markets will worry about that as the funding terms become clearer along with the CAPEX required. Regionally, it's deemed risky but what isn't these days. At 120's, looks good based on higher PM prices but if prices dip along with Bank crisis easing then sub 100p likely again.
Tony... looks like you bailed a bit early but well done on holding through the dip into 60's.
I guess we won’t see these under a £1 again :) onwards and upwards…
Well there you have it. I suspect this is a very conservative statement. Gold at 1650$ rather proves the point. The upside is there for all to see. Well done team AAZ.
Tony, I think you are are missing several tricks with AAZ. Zafar & Gilar are near term wins which will start to boost production in 2024 but as well as the existing mines the company has a gold mine (Vejnali) that was due to start up but were put on the back burner to concentrate on other areas. Xarxar and Garadag are two large copper opportunities and recent RNS's look like within a few year 30-35k tonnes of copper will be produced annually just from them.
Libero is a little unwelcome distraction but I'd be unsurprised if it one of its mines ends up owned by AAZ as it likely to be pocket change in the grand scheme of things.
I've barely skimmed the surface of the full suite of concessions available to explore (some of which the mines are already under construction). The production for this year may be slightly disappointing and follow the trajectory of the last few years but this has been communicated and the company has cash reserves & access to credit to continue to pay a dividend from as well as invest into the new mines. I like Shanta & WK could be a company changer but AAZ has a way better track record from management has multiple areas to explore and a nice mix of assets in terms of mature mine, ones coming into production and initial finds that can fairly soon be brought into production.
The board have promised a Q1 update that will outline a more detailed plan for the business going forwards (presumable this will give us all the key metrics on timescales and targets for production and some idea of the capital that will be required) and in my view that plan should be the start of the actual re rate. My first purchase here was sub 20p many years ago (in small scale sadly) but I think it is a much better company in which to invest now.