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VanVan, just watched the interview. I hope he's correct. He might buy some of our shares. Just need him to know who we are.
Well well, look at all the analysis on here, and Ash's spreadsheet - Woooo!
All total bluff. Yes, the facts are true, but it is bluff because they are pretending that they can forecast the share price. The sp is immune to the facts. AAU has been coming out with good news for years, I like AAU, it is a good, well run company, but apart a few lucky souls who might hvae bought at 1.25p, all the others are sitting in a dead duck and missing out on gains elsewhere.
Ash's spreadsheet - I suppose updating it passes the time for him, but you might as well study astrology to see what the stars foretell for AAU. I think that method will do better.
I note 55174 tonnes of ore was milled this quarter at a head grade of 4.47g/t compared to 48132 tonnes last quarter at a grade of 4.18 g/t. So that is encouraging. Production of ore was 47933 tonnes compared to 43367 last quarter.
Operating cash cost of production was also slightly down from last quarter - $540 compared to $589.
It would be interesting to know how grades are holding up at the new mining operations of Arzu North & Derya.
The big jump is of course this quarter is in the adjusted realised price taking account of the silver, up from $1496 to $1696 per oz. (Up $200 - £155 per oz.) Nice. I believe a $100 uplift in the price of gold adds circa £2.5m annually to the bottom line.
Gold will be explosive unlike anything we've seen says Canada's billionaire Frank Giustra. Look out his recent interview on Kitco YouTube.
ps, the bare bones accounts for the JV in the interims actually should a negative tax figure of 38k I think. I stress again that I am not an accountant However I appreciate that the JV will be paying CT going forward. Back of my mind is that Dr S said that there were certain concessions made to encourage businesses such as AAU, one of these may have been on CT. I will attempt to find it!
Yes Ash, agree though will CT be payable yet as there are surely losses cfwd?
I, along with Paul280i and VanVan, attended the last London presentation. Not sure if any other posters were there. I specifically asked whether the company could 'smooth' the transition between AS and AN/D, or whether there was risk of production disruption. One of the other directors (Mr Sangster?) fielded the answer and said that rich AS ore was already stockpiled which would be available for processing until the second half of 2020. Therefore they expect no disruption of production but did not assure that the it would continue at 2019 levels.
Glad you added that bit John. Corporation tax at 20% of JV profit to be taken into account as well.
Also noted in the RNS, the one-off costs in the quarter for pushing back the southern pot wall at Arzu South & stripping at Arzu North & Derya. Perhaps not so gloomy.
Also noted that production at Arzu North will supplement Arzu South, which is coming to the end of its current life, but not there yet. Together with the stockpile calculated by Cornishknocker, I anticipate reasonable grades for some time yet.
Cheers, Ash
I should add of course add by net income I mean net of production costs not of debt repayments, admin etc.
It certainly looks good for the next calendar year, though production could well be lower and remembering there will still be loan repayments in the first part of the year.
Hi Dibs. Is AAU in a worse geopolitical region than EUA?
Just been mulling over the figures.
We seem to be beyond the sweetspot for costs. Q1 was $399, Q2 $589 and $540 this time round. Last quarter it was explained that the costs had increased due to (for one reason) the annual government state right, this time stripping at the new pits/ pushback at Arzu South. In the future we have been warned of poorer grades from the new pits compared to Arzu South, which will inevitably increase costs per oz produced. I don't think the current costs are particularly worse than expected, rather that in some previous quarters the situation conspired to give unusually low costs which some of us thought (hoped) would continue a bit longer than they have. In the Q2 results interviews Dr S said that, after stripping exceptionals, underlying costs were still running at the upper $300s. Wonder what he will say this time, is that still true? Maybe this is just me being concerned and feeling a little misled, but the effect is that the increase in costs since Q1 has all but negated the increase in net revenue due to higher metal prices.
Anyway, using $/£ of 1.25 a quick calc based on Ashs spreadsheet gives a net income to the JV for Q1-Q3 of £17.445m (if my calcs are correct), on course for c.£24m for the 2019 calendar year - £12m attributable to each of the shareholders
Decent results though much as expected ‘in line with market expectations’
My view, and I know many disagree, is that the market puts a discount on the valuation because of the geopolitical uncertainty in the region. I have no doubt if the mine were located in a ‘safer’ region the stock would command a considerably higher valuation.
At the end of the day Mining is a risky business folks!