The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Not sure if anyone just saw the interview with someone who is way more an expert on the subject than me. Fascinating commentary on the geopolitical fight for copper. He said he could see Rio and BHP trying to link up…with the Chinese then needing to step in to protect their own requirements. Either way, feels like a long way to go yet. Projected huge shortage of copper with countries needing to protect supply chains. I am holding firm having purchased at £18 and £17 but recognise this could take some while to play out with ups and downs. Rather exciting as shares go! All IMO.
Hi casapinos
You may not give advice but I think you are more qualified than many that do.
I hold shares here because of my interest in Woodsmith. Just 3 years from production, I'd like to hold shares in whoever owns Woodsnith.
OR
BHP aint coming back...it was a chancer offer to test the water i think...lets see....
It was worth a try, but too low ...
The mating dance begins....
Be interesting to see how far BHP are prepared to go to get AAL, Glencore had a couple of offers rejected by TECK last year, before buying TECKS coal division EVR. Teck stood firm and were aligned with shareholder interests, hope AAL do the same here. Also (as a holder of GLEN), under the EVR takeover agreement, Glen are not allowed to make another approach at TECK until 2 years after the EVR deal is completed! I'd be surprised BHP didn't make a offer for TECK if the AAL deals fails, unless GLEN have the first option in 2 years time.....one thing for, there are some big bets being placed on copper with these M & A's.
-- bought at £18, now got a decent wedge to invest in some of other shares
We are all in different positions/entry points.
Overnight GOOG announced 70bn buyback and GOOG shareholders now earned just the same 12-16% overnight. But they didn't have to wait for once in a lifetime event -- such as BHP offer for AAL.
Sucks to be an investor in FTSE stocks -- saying this with a pain.
Too right, it was a cheeky offer, needs to start with a 3 in my book !
Agreed, if the world is on the cusp of a commodities boom then BHP need to improve their offer.
No one takes first bids seriously - they're just a way to get things started. Sort of like "do you come here often" at a bar. The real negotiating comes later.
Wow the board stamped that flame out very quickly!!
All here will be aware the SP is now ABOVE the estimated value of the BHP bid, and the frantic action yesterday with high volumes and literally millions of share trades going through the LSE " late reported" and the negative noises from the SA Gov. makes it clear that BHP will have to improve the deal substantially to get it through.
They can do that in a variety of ways, e.g. put some cash into the deal (a last resort IMV), persuade AAL to set in train the float of the Amplats and iron ore elements BEFORE the takeover, add a larger element of its own stock....the variations are numerous.
I don't give advice, but I am waiting to see where this goes: the absolute worst case in the short term is that the deal collapses BUT, that will leave AAL with a much higher perceived value than before, it will prompt AAL to "tidy up" its structure, probably by the divestment mentioned above (and De beers?) and make it primarily a copper and fertiliser play (both of which have good growth prospects). I'd be happy to hold long-term on that basis and would expect to see a steady SP recovery. Meanwhile, I expect lots of conflicting news, comment and further announcements from both companies....
I was lucky enough to buy into BHP at £16 during Covid. With dividend reinvestments and my Woodside spin-off shares, it has been a two-bagger and isn't far off that, even now. I wasn't so lucky with AAL and caught a falling knife at £24, but hopefully rising takeover bids will rectify that. I'll be pretty relaxed even if the takeover bid(s) come to nothing. I have also held Rio for 6 years now (also a two-bagger), so diversification-wise, I'm pretty much at my capacity for miners. The dividends are compelling though.
I might buy BHP, however ill wait till the dust settles, i bought in to AAL for woodsmith, whoever gets control ill buy into that, just took the easy money off the table
It's a steal, Woodsmith well on way plus Quellaveco copper mine producing. BHP trying a low ball offer, as a holder in BHP too I'd be disappointed if they hadn't.
Not selling either.
I'll hold on. £30 would be nice. My average (not counting the Thungela bonus) is about £18, so even today's price would be good, but there is underlying value (Wordsmith, anybody?) which could make the (not that long ago) highs of £40 closer to fair value.
Sorely tempted to do the same as you guys but resisted the temptation. Also wanted to buy into L&G but couldn't see anything in my portfolio I wanted to sell. Might do in a few days as other dividend payments are coming up.
Re AAL, expect it to fall tomorrow (2-3%?) as we wait for news but think a bid will be made and accepted at some point so will hold.
Same here Roxi, bought in at £18.50 odd, sold earlier today just over £25.
Very happy with 8ncrease for a few months hold.
Flipped the cash straight into post exdivi Lgen for longterm divi hold top up.
very pleased.
I've taken the current Sp value, guys, happy that I've made £7.50 profit for each share i bought at £18, now got a decent wedge to invest in some of y other shares I'm involved in, might just split it up equally amongst those.
happy days , nice profit going into other stocks with great potential.
£28 give or take is my estimate, BHP will probably keep buying up to that level, at least I hope.
BHP appear to be buying lots knowing they are going to have to put in a bigger offer by which time they'll only be dealing with 3 or 4 of major shareholders. A sweet deal for the men in charge and its all sorted !
£28-£30 seems to be the realistic range that financial analysts are talking about. Anything less probably is not worth the hassle. Given the cyclical nature of miners, AAL could easily be nudging £40 again in a couple of years’ time, especially with Woodsmith online.
It seems unusual that there are zero messages but a huge volume being traded. Assume its mostly BHP ?
LSEprices way behind the curve ?