Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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To make it clear, the BHP offer implies that AAL shareholders will get one share in "Anglo platinum" , a new company holding AAL's platinum interests, notional value 486 p at the MO. One share in Kumba iron ore, notional value 340p , and 0.7097 of a share in BHP ,FOR EACH AAL share they hold.
At current values (all of which will vary over time) that is worth £25.08 for EACH AAL share , which is why the SP has risen to just below that price.
As usual what follows next may be a better deal from BHP, a competing offer from another source(though only a very few are large enough)or the rejection of the offer by the AAL board.
I'm not sure I want three miners in my folio (or four as I already hold GLEN ) so I will probably sell my AAL before the deal completes , hoping to time my exit better than I did With SMDS!!
Bigger and better offer to come is my opinion
Poor offer and I'm guessing they walk off with the next dividend plus everything invested in Woodsmith.
Keep your £25 BHP
Ill hold the AAL see what transpires over the next few days, i dont see any counter offers , but who knows???, i think the initial bid will get rejected they almost always do, a counter offer of £27 will probably do it , imo
Per bloomberg - their offering 31.1 billion for anglo, current market cap is 33.35+ billion
My gut feeling is this will be rejected and there will not be a further offer. But I could be wrong. The rise here today has offset the drop in my bhp shares as I have more of them so I am not even benefiting from this 🤣
Up she goes,!!!!! any offer would have to be above the 12 month high , so will reach at least £25.50 imo
Has this gone into an auction? I'm not seeing a price update yet
Times article saying Jeffries thinks a 28% premium to last nights close should get it across the line
Offer from BHP, in any case its going to send the Sp soaring towards £25 today, im very happy having bought in at £18
Happy days !!!!!!
I don't think that enough, but it's not a million miles off. £27 should do it.
Bid is 25 quid. Surely board will reject
Update see this
" as part of the terms of the offer ANGLO said the proposal would be preceded by separate demergers of its entire shareholdings in its platinum business and Kumba Iron Ore to its shareholders. The two parts of the proposal would be inter-conditional."
Slightly surprising, I would have thought the De beers diamond business would be one to jettison...
There could also be other big miners who come in and a takeover battle
Ss is the current fashion, stronger co's are offering ALL SHARE takeover options , which means that they dilute their own stock BUT do not have to fork out cash. If the T/O proceeds you will find yourself holding shares in another miner , not a bad option IMV. The preliminary terms will no doubt "leak out" today and I would expect the SP here to bounce sharply. My usual reaction to a nice profit is to take it (see my SMDS posts recently ) but times will be interesting here for a few weeks.It's worth bearing in mind, as I said back in DEC, BHP is monster, with a MCof ~£120bn so this is a relatively easy morsel to swallow.
Bhp has confirmed all share takeover proposal but don't know the terms yet. It's got to be 30%+ premium to closing share price I would guess
Anglo American are far too cheap right now and the mining sector is just beginning to enjoy an uplift in prices and expectations that falling rates coupled with tightness in supply of key commodities will drive up prices in the years ahead.
Not keen on giving away my shares around this level, we are still more than 10% down on the year!
Given that the sp leapt by 4.45% just before close, the market appears to have got wind that something was afoot here.
I hold BHP and AAL. I'll be quite pleased if a merger does go ahead, as I think the consolidated mining behemoth will not take long to become more efficient and valuable than the two separate companies.
Bloomberg reporting BHP considering a bid for Anglo American
Everyone could lose even more without AAL stepping in because without financing (and COVID hitting right after) it would have collapsed into insolvency/admin within a very short time, if I remember correctly TS was a fan of SXX and frequent poster there too, I've made some £ on SXX during these troubled times btw, although now looking back it wasn't justified taking such a risk considering high chance of ending with nothing and losing couple of properties £ value.
Lost a packet on this when it was Sirius
Think how much Barenberg Bank made after their broker downgraded this valuing this at £16 only a few weeks ago.
No doubt they made millions from that.
Nice update and copper prices doing well ,
According to the Woodsmith Liaison Group meeting, the TBM should reach Ladycross (29.2 km) by the end of this month.
https://uk.angloamerican.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group-v5/UK/liaison/30-january-2024-presentation.pdf
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