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IMO nothing to worry about , this will probably be a bit volatile as a result of the uncertainty caused by after hours bookbuilds and become vulnerable to rumour mongering . A solid long term hold ,even a trader given this volatility . I will be adding tomorrow if this weakness holds.
Was just about to ask the same question myself. Becoming a frustrating share
Does anyone have any ideas on the reason behind the fall today ?
BlahBlah The mention of fraud is yours not mine yet another distortion and lie. I have made it clear that IMO all the rules were complied with . The parties involved in the bookbuild (there could be quite a lot of them we will never know with the lack of disclosure ) reached an agreement off the market on a price which they were all happy with . Not so jolly though for all shareholders when that OFF market price is applied ON the market . Punters who bought at or near at or near the date of the after hours RNS especially ,could lose out with a 10% immediate loss or tripped stop losses . I consider that profoundly unfair . The rules have been followed otherwise it could not happen but It amounts to a legalizes mugging
AAFs comments about the DR Congo being their largest geographical market boggles the mind. In fact it is far more than twice the size of Nigeria, but much poorer. Given the technological and logistical challenges such a wide area involves, there is some justification for AAF mentioning improving access to services, as opposed to simply investing in future profitability. Recent infrastructural investments suggest AAF is strategising around long-term demographics beyond just Nigeria, but selectively.
The allegation you made was about fraud, not transparency. This is highlighted by your repeated accusation that institutions are guilty of "mugging" when, in fact, demonstrably, they have followed their obligations to the letter. If you think the regulations need more red tape then say what you want to add to them, don't take dramatic flights of fancy about "cons" and "muggings". You have failed, repeatedly, to substantiate any such claim, so why keep insisting on it? That surely isn't a rational argument. Repetition may be comforting, but it doesn't make your imaginary "mugging" any more convincing.
The point about the issue of transparency being "arguable" was intended to illustrate the difference between a reasonable discussion and one based on a made up conspiracy theory. Your odd interpretation that it was an "admission" of some kind seems like a form of projection, as if I am the one who alleged fraud without evidence, rather than you.
Yet again you have not replied to the message in my post and the part that you have attempted to address you choose to distort . The "whatever you fancy " quote was a reference to the fact that you ignored the main theme of my post and instead invented on my behalf various theories around the word con. The" whatever you fancy" referenced you not bookbuilding . You have ignored my post @ 15:32 probably because it is an inconvenience and and continued with your distortions.. I note that you have begrudgingly conceded that more transparency might be due , if you read para 7 you would change your mind . I have often used the word recipient rather than buyer because there may be an element of enrichment in the bookbuild process . The sp was recently approaching new highs then fell back possibly because Pi's were hesitant to buy it up for fear of another institutional mugging this situation is doing AAF no favors .
Bookbuilding is not "mugging" and it's not a "con", it is silly to make "whatever you fancy" out of such a well established process. Any system can be exploited by insider dealing, but you were asked for evidence of a "con" (your word) not generalities. If you have no evidence of a "con", why do you keep repeating the word and implying that there was one? If you are merely asking for bookbuilders to reveal all the purchasers names, in the name of transparency, then that is arguable, but it is a completely different thing from accusing people of perpetrating a "con".
BlahBlah Just in case I have not made myself clear.
The "con " is the system that allows this form of legalized mugging take place . It is quaint only in name certainly not in practice .
ATB
Hi Blah Blah you seem to be reading my posts and making of them whatever you fancy while ignoring the salient points such as fairness transparency and timing . I have not accused any of the institutions or bankers of illegal actions I merely pointed out that if the news of a guaranteed near term drop in the sp was available to privileged individuals human nature would mean that some might be tempted to act on that knowledge it would be naive to think otherwise. I am confidant that the sellers and bankers did not and would not do anything illegal . To me the PROPOSED bookbuild was done at breakneck speed within 12 hours, presumably bids were solicitated and collated . Note that this was not an accelerated bookbuild where 12 hours might be just feasible . Please read para 7 of the important notices starting with "in connection " it blows my mind .I will not comment on it or else you will say I am open to court proceedings . If the "rules " such as they are allows off market actions to impose a price fix on the market the rules are open to abuse and they need to be changed because they are utterly unfair. Why are the recipients not disclosed this would this would rule out any shady dealings. I think it is unfortunate that the volatility caused by these actions will put off some investors in a great company , although I have benefited by buying the dips I believe this should not be necessary and a more efficient means should be formulated for recipients of the IPO to divest.
Yes, I was comparing your theory to similar ones from people for whom evidence doesn't seem to matter, they think an allegation alone is the equivalent of proof. You now appear to be saying your claims are less certain, more just a possibility based on a set of cynical assumptions, rather than likely or defendable against, say, a charge of defamation. You're suggesting the "con" here is that they are secretly and illegally buying the shares back again at a price fixed substantially lower than the market price. So you are implicating the book building firm as well and suggesting they are colluding in the alleged crime. That is pretty serious, I hope you have alerted the regulators. Do you allege this of all of the secondary placings in this stock, or only the last one? You seem to implicate ALL secondary placings on the market in any stock, since they are all conducted in the same way? Perhaps you are specifically accusing the Singapore wealth fund of wrongdoing? If so, how much is the con worth to them, compared to the rest of their portfolio? Is it a "good little earner" for them after they have paid all the expenses, including the bookbuilders alleged cut? Do you accuse them of doing it with other stocks in their portfolio, or only this one?
Hi BlahBlah thanks for your reply , dishonest and unwise seem a bit strong .
Perhaps you have not read my post on the 30th where I state " stock markets have to be seen to be free fair and transparent otherwise they cannot function " . You state that the details are made public in fact they are not , we know the seller but we do not know the recipient. I wonder why ? Could they be associated companies so the apparent 10% loss for the seller would have no impact we will never know .
OFF the market institutions can get together and formulate a price to impose ON the market. 1.5% of the free float changed hands for a 10% drop in the sp on opening triggering stop losses. Is that free and fair? It amounts to manipulation . RNS after close on 24th - book build - RNS 25th done and dusted . Rollocks
The RNS on the 24th is IMO disingenuous they effectively state that the book build dates are flexible . The word "build "would imply a gradual process . When that RNS was issued they must have known the recipients of the shares ,it is possible that privileged inside information was circulating amongst some individuals that the SP would be mugged by 10% imminently , I am sure that you would know what could be done with that info by an unscrupulous person. As now there was then some large movement in the sp just prior to the 24th. In the absence of an RNS from the company it would be unusual for the sp to fall by 6% at one stage yesterday. I recognize that if those shares were dumped on the it would probably have triggered a larger fall , but at least we could have all participated that's what stock markets are for.
ATB
The term probably seems "quaint" because you are unfamiliar with it. The "secondary" part simply means the shares originated in an IPO and are now being offered again by the purchaser. Why you still imagine there is a con happening is hard to fathom, these are simply sales of large blocks of shares by sovereign wealth funds, and other large investors, done by an appointed intermediary using the prescribed method, with RNS's making the details public before and after as required by regulators. Where is the con in that? If you have information to support your accusation, then report it to the regulators, but just failing to understand is a poor basis for complaint, and making accusations with nothing to back them up seems dishonest and unwise.
Good luck making money from timing the dips: many have tried
Interesting gyrations here , could this be the shenanigans before institutions in the know get together and arbitrarily knock 10% off the market cap to suit their own devices ? Some posters here seem to think that the quaintly named "secondary share placing " is normal and acceptable I believe it is just a con .
If a placing is announced I would take it as a great chance to add.
We will be crossing the 200 very soon fellas hold on... My valuation, based on current result, suggest that @200 it will still be undervalued.
Significant in that they have started the service, but it's not unexpected littlegrandma, there have been several RNSs about obtaining licenses over the last few months. To some extent the banking operation is probably already priced in, but I'm not sure the market is prepared for the full impact: the growth is likely to be rapid and longlasting, imo, in a young and increasing population.
This morning's RNS looks significant to me. Nigeria being the most populous country in Africa gives Airtel a good opportunity for growth in their banking operation imo.
Yes indeed , as usual the key here is the mighty US$
Lets take an extreme ( but not impossible the way things are shaping up ) example . Suppose the African currencies stay stable against the $ while the £ declines by 50% . The profits reported by AAF will remain stable in $ terms , but all of a sudden those $ earnings will be worth a heck of lot more £'s.
Anyway not too serious. I am pretty sure that this company can at least keep up the present rate of earnings growth and even if the next reported earnings are only similar, at this sp it is seriously under valued.
ATB
The pound declining against African currencies should, in theory, make the SP should go up, as local currency earnings are worth more pounds, whereas if African currencies depreciate against the dollar it might tend to go down, as the cost of paying dollar dividends is more expensive, so maybe they kind of cancel each other out? But then, most UK holders presumably have their dividends converted from dollars into pounds, so that's another exchange rate to factor in. Complicated, innit?
Tricky-I'm sure I am correct-although I agree with all your comments about the UK and our dodgy government.
African currencies are correlated to the dollar not to the pound, as you are suggesting, and as I know to my cost as someone who regularly sends money to Africa. However, all our earnings are in local currency. When the dollar strengthens, while the pound depreciates against African currrencies, those currencies also depreciate against the dollar.
AAF has to make more Nairas, Kenyan Shillings, Tanzania shillings etc to keep up its dollar revenue and pay our div.
Hi Highveld , not sure that you are correct. African currencies have done relatively well against the $ when compared with the performance of the "great" British £ . The gBP has fallen against the $ considerably of late and here aaf is quoted in gBP so the $ strength has helped the sp . After all when the £ weakens the FTSE 100 tends to rise because so many of the companies have $ earnings
The gBP is very likely to fall a lot further against the $ because a large % of the population cannot pay their bills as a result of the cost of living crisis . I am sure that the Government here is arrogant and hypocritical ( they cannot even obey their own laws ) enough to default on an international agreement with regards to the Northern Ireland protocol . When that happens a trade war with the EU will ensue and the £ will plummet further thereby strengthening the AAF sp.
ATB
....is the problem here. The market thinks the dollar will stay strong and this effectively negates a large part of the revenue and profit growth. However, there is a strong argument that sooner or later the Fed will have to bring back QE and the dollar will slip back in our favour. Meanwhile growth of the customer base is relentless.
Short stay , sold today , but keep a very profit in shares , all markets still down n Dow still looks to be heading towards 30000 mark , but staple stocks still rising , kellogs / campell eg stated on CNBC news , bring on the cornflakes then , Gla
The latest results indicate a PE of 10.9.
Far too low for a FT 100 growth company.
The most encouraging thing in the results is that subscriber numbers have actually increased, despite the strict imposition of SIM registration in Nigeria during the year. On top of that, mobile money has grown strongly, the average amount people are spending is growing, and even margins are going up 'marginally' (: All of these point to even bigger revenues and profits next time, although the greedy market seems to think they should have come earlier. Compared to most shares, this one has held up well this year, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't recover swiftly on prospects.