Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Spotopp- Never rely on brokers forcast/ price target. Sometimes they are misguiding.
I am optimistic here too - JP Morgan has just raised Airtel price target to £2.15. Which is a good thing in the present situation
@Velo: I agree. I think anything under 140 is a discount and the market also agrees. Unfortunately,I'm potless this morning.
"... analysis of the SP chart will show that the impact was relatively short-lived..."
------------
Well I did say fell for "weeks".
Weeks did not imply fall permanently never to recover.
The subtext of my post is that a greater price for top-up's may be obtained in those weeks than the closing price of the first day announcement - if things aren't different this time and it retraces further for a week or two, but who knows? :)
@VELO. Thank you for the sleuthing you have done into Warburg and Morning Star; however, I think the conclusion you have drawn is spurious.
On the two previous occasions where a large placing was done overnight by book build, in December 20 and April 21, the relative percentage of shares was similar at 1.6% and 1.3% of mcap respectively. The 90 day rule similarly pertained yet even a cursory analysis of the SP chart will show that the impact was relatively short-lived and the company moved from strength to strength- outperforming most mid-caps to reach the 100- based on its impressive revenue and profit figures.
So-IMO- we may experience a dip here SHORT-TERM but I can't see any evidence that it will affect the company seriously going forward.
GLA.
GLA.
Been looking into the two sellers.
Warburg Pincus LLC is on the books before this sale as holding 5% of AAF stock! (4.8% actually).
As the sale represents 1.5% of AAF stock, then Warburg still has a lot of firepower left to go.
(Thought it would have been a 100% sale if it's because they are prevented by mandate from holding FTSE100 stocks in their funds).
But that's not the half of it.
Tried to look up Morning Star's holding and no trace of them.
If anyone has a fuller ID name of MorningStar's fund, I'd appreciate you posting it so I can look up their holding too. Maybe they list by an alternative name?
Whatever 58 million shares were sold. But Warburg held 187.9m before this sale and I have yet to find Morningstar's likely amount for sale.
All in all, if Warburg is not finished selling, then they have a ton of firepower left to sell more if they so desire so in the near future.
Back in April, the fall in price wasn't over in a day - it fell for weeks. However, Is this a case of deploying that infamous quote of "But it's different this time"?
Will it, be different?
I'd completely forgotten that one Highveld, yes very similar number of shares too. It fell quite a bit further on that one and I'm not sure we ever learned who the seller was, but as you say, recovered within weeks then soared. Nothing much Airtel can do if an early investor wants to cash in, it's normal.
There's been a lot going on lately without any RNS - the exit from Ghana, losing the 5G auction in Nigeria, and the troubles in Northern Nigeria. Most companies would have put something out about one or all of these? I guess they are not regarded as sufficiently significant in the context of a complex and widely spread business.
LTHS will remember when they did this in December 2020: I was pretty ****ed off at the time but it didn't take long for the SP to recover and surge on. I would see 140 as a base not a ceiling, you only have to look at the speed with which it bounced from the low 130s this morning and remember that IIs are only prepared to pay 140 if they still see significant upside which I also do.
The business model is extremely flexible and there is still massive potential for growth, both quantitative and qualitative.
Airtel own large market share in countries which are growing demographically with large young populations who want phones and use them extensively to conduct financial transactions.
I'd be surprised if we haven't shrugged this off and moved on in a month.
GLA
If the volume today continues the unexpected 81m shares should clear in the next 3 - 4 weeks.
BlahBlahDoh
I must have missed the initial post.
I agree the bid price has probably found a base around £1.40. Thats a reasonably good place to be today.
I suspect it will drift higher over the next few weeks. Given that the stock has not been diluted, I see no reason why we shouldn't regain the recent highs fairly soon.
In effect nothing has changed fundamentally with the stock, its just the market reacting to the large number of sells. Once its all cleared, it will be business as usual.
"It entered the FTSE100 the day after that post,"
Not sure which post you are referring to Paul, but as I said before, Chamer gave us the heads-up about it on 22nd January, NINE days before it entered the index, which was pretty handy.
The fact that institutional investors snapped up 58 million shares is positive, imo. Warburg are a private equity firm who have invested in Airtel companies from the beginning in India, but there now seems to be more widespread support here, and perhaps a notional wholesale "floor" @ around £1.40.
Paul
Thanks. Just checked the list and is 82 in list with SP 155. Hopefully will stay in . That could be the reason they sold as they might be investing in small companies
Paul
Thanks. Just checked the list and is 82 in list with SP 155. Hopefully will stay in . That could be the reason they sold as they might be investing in small companies
Already in.
Roy
It entered the FTSE100 the day after that post, it was unusual, due to specific circumstances, but I view it as a very positive move.
the FTSE 100 is reviewed 4 times a year usually, and hopefully by the next review AAF will still quallify.
Paul2566 - Thanks for the info. Hopefully no more selling after 90 days. Few days a go someone posted saying AAF might go into ftse100 what is your opinion?
Nothing to be concerned about at all. Company moved up into the FTSE100, which generates increased demand for institutional shares. They did a deal to meet demand and executed it in less than 24 hours. All good.
The smaller trade made later went through straight away though.
They may, however there were no shortage of buyers, it took me 25 minutes to execute a trade for 12000 shares earlier today, and the two funds concerned actually sold more stock than they origionally intended.
I don't believe its anything to be overly concerned with.
Ok so that now makes sense, from further information released today which offers some clarity.
Two institutional investors, Warburg Pincus LLC and Morningstar Investment Pte Ltd., sold the stock, I assume it was profit taking. It may have been due to an imbalance in their portfolios. I know some fund managers have limits on the % of certain stock sectors or geographical sectors. It probably means nothing, just a PIA for retail investors.
However I expect any pain to be fairly short lived.
Its unclear how much stock Warburg Pincus LLC and Morningstar Investment Pte Ltd. have retained in their portfolios.
After 90 days Warburg Pincus LLC and Morningstar Investment Pte Ltd might come back and sell more shares
Well, I decided to take some profit from ULVR, and added another 2397 AAF shares at this price as I expect them to offer better returns for my investment.
Put these on my watch list last week, took them off today, main market with AIM and Africa MO.
Gapped down through my stop of 145, waited and sold mine for around 139. I was wondering when something like this was going to happen. Fortunately in overall scheme of things, not too much damage done, around 1% of portfolio lost. Is the 140p placing now going to act as a barrier to price, at least in the short term? I was hoping it would provide support. Good luck all.
Bugger.
Oh well live and learn, I had a stop loss that was triggered, couldn't buy back quick enough. I'm back in but it cost me over £2k.
My fault.
On the bright side £8.5k of paper profit was transformed into £6k of realised profit.