The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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In only a few months this bb had gone from being one of the more depressing to read to one of the more positive - and rightly so. We got Bushranger for a steal as it was and drilling has exceeded the most optimistic expectations.
Personally still prefer a rig deployed to Footrot and other targets to test them. AA buy out would be based on fair value of the contained copper and not cut off at 2mt. Would be Bittersweet if licence sold on racecourse exceeding 2mt if another 1-2mt might be at footrot and/or the extensions.
To maximise returns CB will have to play it smart on when best for formal jorc. They’ll have their own internal rough calcs not done to formal JORC standards. Best to update jorc before 2mt then drill more or not jorc for a while. Would be nice to hear his thoughts on drilling other targets and how to best maximise our opportunity.
In only a few months, there should be sufficient info to easily break into 20p range.....
Has Colin suggested (or has anyone calculated/estimated) the timescales for the JORC based upon our current drilling programme?
Total of 11 holes, +6weeks for final assays +x weeks to compile and issue the report....
Of course +20p is dependant upon the right answers being found from this campaign. But we should know/be able to estimate that well in advance, as the assay results are published.... which im expecting will be as we receive them from the labs.... Colin has said there is no reason to withhold this info.
I keep coming back to this :
For AA the JORC needs to be 450mt @ .45cueq
Or around 2million tonnes of copper equivalent (including gold element)
The indications are week by week that we have a decent chance of proving that number. We appear to be proving the volume, if not more. The shortly upcoming assays will start to prove the grade.
The value of 2 million tonnes of copper at 9000$ is : $19 billion dollars in the ground.
I wonder what that makes xtr worth after a couple of good assay results over the next few weeks.
Also the new share options allocated are at 10p, that is how very confident CB is.
I expect 3x RNS regarding hole #4. As follows:
1) They have hit mineralisation (imminent).
2) Hole terminated, a summary of findings along its length.
3) Assay results.
This would be consistent with our experience to date.
@ogm4 - CB could hardly contain himself could he... His outlet was splashing out on a million shares from the market for £58k... A clear signal to us PIs... Such exciting times! :-D
Hole #3 assays must be very juicy by the sounds of CB's interview
I have listened to the last share talk with CB. He clearly states info would be coming over when there is a valid report to be announced. I also noticed the the way he said about how he was going to report in the future seemed to be that he had been instructed to do so going by his comments. Listen very carefully and i think you will pick up what i'm refering to. Therefore i don't think he would be reporting early on hole 4 and the same senario will apply as was with hole 3
My opinion, I feel Colin's held our hand since Christmas with the frequency of the RNS's, but he want to get back to running the business. This weeks share options, are another "clue", someone said why doesn't he just buy on the market? and then he buys nearly £60k on market another "clue". I'm almost sure he reads this board, from a comment he made on one of Zaks podcast.
An RNS confirming grades are in the expected range, or better is the one everyone's waiting for. The drill's turning 24/7 we don't need the blow by blow details any more, comforting as they were.
I've been a holder for a long time, like lots of people XTR was a huge paper loss. Now a small profit after years of averaging down and a lucky buy just before Christmas. Years ago Colin did a Q and A, where I though he seem genuinely concerned about what had happened to XTR shareholders under Jan Nelson, and felt he should have kept a closer eye on what Jan was doing.
I think since then he's been working hard for XTR shareholders, trying to recover the share price, and that through luck or more probably skill, he's found the answer, and a whole lot more in Bushranger.
All the clues are there, all you need to do is not sell, and to have some patience. This could be a district scale discovery, and XTR own it 100%, it's not just about one porphyry, just needs time to prove it.
Fair to say that bushranger will require a lot more drilling to realise the resource to a point where we have an option with a major I understand. A lot can happen in that time so is fair point to remain realistic for now. Nothing wrong with speculating if coming from respected posters. I have been around, lurking for many years and appreciate the time and effort some people put in. Objective and subjective. Do keep it up great BB this. Sorry , thought I’d just mention that and say a hello
P.S.
I doubt that anybody that posts on this BB ( OK, it is possible that maybe one or two at the most) own more shares in XTR than I do, but I want to be realistic rather than being carried away by the moment and I hope that other LTHs are of the same mind...
Hello Andrew,
My post was not aimed directly at you.
I too think that the SP has the potential - perhaps even the probability - of being many times the current SP and, yes, 50p+ will probably happen.
But based on current information ( or lack of it) I think the current SP should be between 8p and 9p, not the teens or twenties that some are claiming.
For the sake of all involved I am trying to keep it real...
Hello CE
I think you have missed the point of my post.
I agree with your current valuation of xtract and the sp. But I was trying to determine what the sp could be based on certain reasonable assumptions (which hopefully will happen reasonably soon). Same as you, and others, have done many times before in the past. I used the word ‘assuming’ in my post a few times which implies something that may happen in the future.
I wasn’t try to claim that the sp should be significantly higher than it is now.
You have come up with a valuation of £350M to xtract but this valuation can only be made if you are also making an assumption. Your assumption is that xtract will prove up 2mt of copper.
I think your valuation seems reasonable, but IF that happens then I cant see how the sp wont rerate to a value way over 30p.
It remains to be seen if these assumptions happen, and therefore if the sp does reach these higher levels. But I wasn’t suggesting the sp should be there now.
The rest was priced in at less than 1p by the market and until we get some positive news it is unlikely to change, so, yes it is priced in my estimate.
You’ve based that I take it on only the bush ranger asset. Nothing in there for the others.
Estimating, based upon the best information available, the scale of this opportunity for XTR is the basis for my investment here. So, for me at least it is not premature to work out what different scenarios should equate to in terms of SP! If I hadn't, I wouldn't be invested! Investing is all about risk and reward after all. You wouldn't invest in anything without a a carrot being dangled. :-)
Bottom line is that proving-up 2m tonnes of Cu equivalent will be worth around £350m to XTR.
Given the current state of play and the uncertainty that still exists, a fair market cap between £60m and £70m has already been justified IMHO.
That represents an SP of around 8p - 9p.
It would seem that talking about higher SPs is premature at this stage, but having said that, I think the current SP is a little lower than it should be and if I am right the market will rectify the difference over the next few trading sessions...
It is great to be enthusiastic about this share, but let's keep it real.
Eureka is now well over 3 weeks underway
The speed and efficency of this drilling project is impressive. Seamlessly moving from 'ole to 'ole. Communication has been excellent.- we have been told at each step how information would be communicated. We are making great progress and CB seems very determined - no letting up in his ambition.
Agree with previous poster - we will get at least one drill 4 update - probably to confirm they have reached mineralisation and the depth - as they did with 'ole 3. I think first assay results - 'ole 1 - possible but if not next week then certainly week after. Then we can expect a flow of assay results forthcoming. Eureka not so sure about. I do wonder if managements, and certainly the markets, focus is now firmly on events at Bushranger.
Reading between the lines of the RNS dated 24th February...
I concur with Ella that it is likely the drill company. But either way, incentive to crack is obvious!
I suspect it will be the company rather than the crew themselves being paid in XTR shares. In addition I suspect our consultant geo was a recipient of some of this weeks share options.
Trotter, where did you get that information?
Also, I understand that the drilling crew is being remunerated by way of XTR shares... If that isn't an incentive to crack on I don't know what is.
Agree, don’t see any reason why hole 4 isn’t underway or certainly imminent. The drilling team have so far proven very reliable and efficient. The progress has been fantastic IMO from hole 1 and the frequency and timing of news feeds have been good.
I agree: they have already started hole #4. I reckon they'll announce it once they've intercepted some mineralisation at 150m-250m. Given the usual drilling speed, it should happen on drilling day 3-4, i.e. Monday or Tuesday, so an RNS should be with us on Tuesday or Wednesday.
I think hole #4 will be underway and it will be tasting mineralisation early the coming week.
They didn't pause between holes previously.
Best,
Mr T