Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I think for me a key takeaway was that all operations have now ceased. No hints of timelines, but shareholders to be updated in due course
By the time the owner of Bushranger has got to the lower grades (10+ years), the average lower grades will be mineable.
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/XTR-Presentation-14.10.2021.pdf
Page 11 shows the gradual decline in grades over the years, it doesn’t overlap the requirement for additional copper over the next 20-30 years, this will push the average mineable percentages even lower as miners chase whatever they can get their hands on with higher copper prices.
0.15 is workable (long term). Obviously, all in my opinion, hence why I’m here. Just don’t want to wait for 10+ years to find out if I’m right!
Seems like a positive RNS.
Suggests to me that they will be putting the resource together with a 0.15% CuEq cut off.
The 320m referred to in the RNS is 0.16% CuEq, but just 0.11% Cu and 0.06 Au g/t. Presumably 0.16% Cu without the gold would have been a much better outcome?
I assume the resource estimate for RC will come out at or above 1.5MT, but at quite a low grade and cut off. Given the additional capex to get through so much more rock, how sensitive could this be to both the level of interest and value attributed to the resource?
Still feels to me we are really scraping the barrel to declare something that may on the face of it sound very positive, but that doesn't actually have anywhere near as much economic value as we'd all hoped and had been indicated by CB.
That's a good RNS in my view, not just the results but the message given on progression and next steps, updated model in August?
There’s Gold in them there hills…
If the first ten years of discounted cash flow can barely payoff the capex, then the next ten years wont be too flash either. They haven't discovered any new mineralisation that makes ambetter starter pit than that outlined in their preliminary study.
So we make a loss on every pound, but well make it upon volume???
I see Xtract gets a mention.
Something to pass the time. Racecourse hasn't disappeared! I haven't digested it all yet
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/clients/legacyminerals/headline.aspx?headlineid=21387102
Found an article in mining.com titled The looming copper crunch and why recycling can’t fix it, thought it was worth sharing
Perhaps you should, if interested, take another read of the feasibility study you reference which is about to celebrate its first anniversary.
This was produced before phase 2 had any results and was based on c7km of drilling rather than c30km ++ of drilling now completed.
The feasibility study was based on a conceptual open pit with a crappy 9 year life at 20mt pa. Hence high cu price assumption required to repay capital but I think you know that.
The economics change dramatically, which I reckon you also already know, when we're at 20 or 30 years at 20mt which is substantiated by indicative volume and grade from porphyry number 1 at Racecourse.
Consider the statement in the feasibility study "· The Conceptual Study concluded that the Racecourse deposit contains significant low-grade tonnes of copper and gold which may be economically recovered at a copper sales price above US$4 per lb" and what that has now dropped to.
WA and Caravel need a buyer but it'll be a fire sale with a challenging debt burden. Good job we're funded.
Good luck with your choices.
Cheers
Well I'm not shot down, because you guys don't even know what you don't know. Not that you know nothing, because you're smart enoigh to be after copper porphyry systems today. And not to say I know everything, because it's a great big industry full of experts who I aren't one of.
I accept and like xtr's jurisdictional and logistical situation. My angle is that these plusses won't compensate enough for low grades, so it's a non-starter. I've been wrong before, but I'm just saying my piece.
At $5 copper, the starter-pit here is almost NPV positive. There'll be a new resource and a new scoping study...to roughly paint the new numbers.
And all I'm saying is, that my hunch is, the numbers will suck! Look at that recent copper PFS from that WA mob I brought up this month...Australian, large, (bit too) low-grade copper, with really good access & permitting. 90% the same as xtr.
But they have a consistently higher-grade mineralisation, and yet...with a now disappointing PFS.
If xtr's drilling is considerably worse than that mob's were...then how can xtr come up with a better result? What parameter of excellence will see them make up the gap, then street the field?
Now no insult to the workers involved, who are just exploring...vast majority of exploration doesn't land a mine, you study it up until the scientific assessment of the anomaly is produced. Then they send you somewhere else. And the same goes for any internet stock forum professional liars out there...it's just public relations, at the end of the day. The money goes where it will.
I think there's a clue in the name, I have a holding in SOLG too and I wish I hadn't.
Fortunately I have a bigger holding here that has much better prospects in a much shorter timeframe.
I am sure everyone will be shocked to find this is yet another misleading suggestion from porvenireal. The grades are worse than BR, in particular because the copper grades are below 0.2% and they are using 0.32% CuEq by relying on gold, silver and molybdenum, all of which require different extraction methods (and higher costs). Its in a remote area of British Columbia with minimal nearby infrastructure about 1000 km from the nearest major port. Also, the average temperature is below freezing for half the year. I won't bothered explaining for the tenth time about the advantages of BR's location, as you ignore them every time.
What motivates you to come back here every few weeks and suggest other mining projects, only to be shot down every time?
Those question marks were meant to be emphasis points. I wmust work on my wingdings.
Here's another big low-grade copper mob. Surge surg.v.
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/surge-copper-announces-96-increase-in-ootsa-measured
They already got their 2.5 million tons of copper, plus ?as much again? in moly & pms. It's in Canada, in several deposits surrounding an unusused copper mill on care & maintenance.
Currently trading at 2/3's of xtr's price.
Higher overall grade than xtr, plus with meaningful higher grade starter pits, and with a ?massively? smaller capex required, assuming an arrangement with Imperial can be organised for their unused plant. Equally decent jurisdiction.
i am under the impression that a tier one mine is a company making project , will get built regardless of the position of the copper price cycle and that bushranger is unlikely to see the light of day for another ten years oh so . so i don't really understand why the present dip in copper prices should have much of an effect on the saleability of the asset. would an average price not be used based on historic and future projections ? regardless of the copper price today .
If it gives me the chance to vote him out in the GE I'm happy.....
10,000 Tory party members so far have signed a petition to have Boris enter the election for his job on
conservativepost.co.uk
Agree with a lot of that Prickly, we might get a ceasefire relatively soon. The war must be crushing the Russian economy, Afghanistan (plus Chernobyl and generally being broke) did for the USSR in the 80s. At some point soon Putin will start to realise that a pyrrhic victory is better than none as the number of Russian dead and their economic crisis grow.
Britain looks like its getting trussed up but that shouldn't affect the copper price too much!
My bigger concern is actually the Chinese property bubble currently bursting, which has in fact started in earnest already.
A steady gold price and signs that Copper has inched off its bottom augur well at XTR. Once we get back to $4.00 lb which CB and Iceberg agree should be Sept Oct then normal service should be resumed . The Sp will reflect a small gold producer and large copper explorer . The cu price predictions are all over the place and the likes of Goldman Sachs are forever trying to explain why their estimates were so wrong . My guess for copper price is somewhere between $4.50 and $5.00 for a year from now. I am an optimist and think the war will end in the winter with both sides claiming victory and Russia clinging on to large chunks of mainly destroyed Ukraine . China will finally open up its economy post Covid (also having declared a victory) and Rishi will be PM. I hope some of these are correct. But I voted Remain and backed Hunt in the tory leadership ballot so my track record is poor.
We like your pointless speculation :)
Re copper and gold price. I tend to agree with Colin. Sept maybe oct will see some recovery of commodity prices. I do think that China will be buying again. Importantly I think that speculators will move in.
The market will be in wish away a recession mood.
Then it will come back to bite as we move into January. It will be an interesting short lived aim exploration bonanza. I hope folks make hay while it goes well and close down positions in risky stocks.
Given this, from now till September we might see some big low volume movements in some shares. There is just a sign of some bounce returning.
At least imo. - but feel free to ignore as it’s all just pointless speculation :)
When I say hopefully eureka is ramped up, there is a couple of points to note there. We are into the third quarter now so hopefully ‘operations’ as stated could well be under way again.
Secondly it’s not actually that clear in the audited report if commencement will still be into further drilling and testing with more trial mining, running the ore for processing or both? So may not quite be there just yet from reading into the report. Whereas Colin in interview has stated once the pit dries out from being hampered by the rains it ‘will’ start producing.
But, it is clear enough they are doing all the right things to get into the geology to fully understand the ore body to extend open pit to the north west, 300m of strike has been added and is open down plunge too, as the historic pit was not dug deep enough to get to the core of the deposit. Loads of potential with a detailed mine planned and with the objective to get ore to a local processing plant where there is an agreement in place to start getting some income.
So it certainly does look promising that Eureka will make a fair contribution and more importantly, soon!
Expected to shift 250,000TPA over 3years, are there any estimates of average grades, income expected etc?
Frustrating being kept in the dark but there is just enough information in the domain to piece it together.
Hi backtothesoil
Don’t forget empress get a royalty (% of revenue) while XTR get a % of profit (definition in recent release) so unless I’ve misunderstood your calculation I don’t think you can make that comparison as it’s not apples with apples.
Cheer
James
Empress av cash flow $1.5m.
Xtr cash flow then $10.2M