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Stayed up to late doing these. This is the calcs the big boys will be doing. This is what returns you are buying today based on the €8bn RNS official figures and timeline.
o €4bn by the end of 2021
o €5.5bn end 2022
o €7bn end 2023
o €8bn end 2024
Now this isn’t including self funding, other funding sources or growth SYME may find in these 4 years.
This is purely the workings on
1. Yesterdays close market cap of £200m.
2. The RNS for the new Bank deal.
The Market cap is in GDP so will use parity to the EUR
and round down for P/R P/E.
PR = Price over revenue.
PE = Price over earnings
Revenue = All income (3% to SYME)
Net Profit = Earnings (1.5% to SYME)
Earnings Yield = Return of investment in earnings
(If you bought the whole of SYME for £200m, what percentage interest would you get via earnings i.e. net profit)
PEG = The PE over the percentage growth rate.
Above 1 is overpriced.
1 and under is said to be good.
2020 €1.4bn Inventory funding
Revenue@ 3% €42m
Net Profit@1.5% €21m
Price/Revenue 5
Price/Earnings 10
Earnings Yield 10%
285% Growth to Yr1 (1.4-4bn)
PEG 0.035
2021 €4bn Inventory funding
Revenue@ 3% €120m
Net Profit@1.5% €60m
Price/ 1Yr Forward Revenue 1.6 (rounding down for Euro)
Price/1 Yr Forward Earnings 3.3 (rounding down for Euro)
1 Yr Forward Earnings Yield 33%
37.5% Growth to Yr2 (4-5.5bn)
1 Yr Forward PEG 0.088
2022 €5.5bn Inventory funding
Revenue@ 3% €165
Net Profit@1.5% €82.5m
Price/2yr Forward Revenue 1.2 (rounding down for Euro)
Price/2yr Forward Earnings 2.4 (rounding down for Euro)
2yr Forward Earnings Yield 41%
27% Growth to Yr3 (5.5-7bn)
2yr Forward PEG 0.088
2023 €7bn Inventory funding
Revenue@ 3% €210m
Net Profit@1.5% €105m
Price/3yr Forward Revenue 1.1 (rounding down for Euro)
Price/3 yr Forward Earnings 2.2 (rounding down for Euro)
3yr Forward Earnings Yield 50%
14% Growth to Yr4 (7-8bn)
3yr Forward PEG 0.15
2024 €8bn Inventory funding
Revenue@ 3% €240m
Net Profit@1.5% €120m
Price/4yr Forward Revenue 0.8 (rounding down for Euro)
Price/4 yr Forward Earnings 1.6(rounding down for Euro)
4yr Forward Earnings Yield 66%
14% Growth to Yr5 (same as previous year)
4yr Forward PEG 0.11
For those in the know of the above, know how cheap SYME is and what a great investment it is.
I have never seen figures like it. I’ve screened a fair few companies over the years....
You can pretty much guarantee the share price will be way higher than now. Those PEG’s will get higher the higher the PE goes. I also think after dong this, This will get over my 5p thoughts for 2021. SYME have other funding avenues and a fully scalable model with a global market of trillions to tap into. This is just going to explode when the market catches on.
I have spent hours and hours doing these working and posting on here. I am not paid, and I share my workings freely. I want all the people lucky enough to be here to do well. We are still pre IPO price. Some of us lucky ones bought at silly prices only possible via covid madness. This is a rare opportunity very similar in monetary terms to some of the stock market greats that have been mentioned over the months. Especially to those in very low. The low of this is 10X and more up so far. Where will it be 2021/22/23/24
0.05p to ????
My average is higher now as I’ve loaded even more. This has been de risked to such an extent, I’m happy being more unbalanced into SYME. Steve Jobs got Rich from Apple shares, on a micro scale in comparison, I’ll get rich from my SYME ones.
GLA
It looks great weathergeek but why is the share price still this low
WG, thanks for all your input. Hopefully, a lot of other investors will have the same story unfold in their lives!
gla
@weathergeek = #legend
Just hope that I stay alive to live to tell the tale!
Test, test, test
WG - great work
Many thanks WG
@WG - Just wanted to add my thanks for all the detailed info you continue to post. Its MUCH appreciated! Thank you.
Because they are awaiting to see it in accounts @Angus, a lot won't even look here till a few years of accounts are there. Risk/reward is higher for those who can project accurately.
Anyone care to critique WG's appraisal before I remortgage :)
So what price could expect in the next year if all goes well
That’s only a tiny smidgen of why the sp is low and you know it . This company needs facts not opportunity’s and maybes .
The RNS’s are our facts .. our eyes see the late trades
Kim .. BS
Well scribed WG :)
A punter maybe you should not gamble so much with only hot air
So what price could expect in the next year if all goes well.
Seriously?
WG
Excellent analysis I have shared on Twitter, I Hope you don't mind!
All the best
Personally aiming/hoping/expecting for 6-10p by Autumn.
Of course you're right, Weather, and the big banks will be all over this when AZ has proved it works, and by then we'll all be richer.
Hi Weathergeek,
Thanks for trying to put some projections out there, it's always difficult starting from the outside and AZ would do everyone a favour if the Company were to provide at least a 'disclaimer: hypothetical' model for people then to input their own numbers.
I haven't looked at the potential earnings side of things - prefer to watch the eggs hatch before counting, much less cooking them - so won't say more at this stage, other than to query this :
.."2020 €1.4bn Inventory funding.."
AZ I thought said pretty clearly in the interview that the Bank would be operational by December, maybe somebody with a transcript can confirm.
If so, I think that first assumption may be a tad ambitious.
Thanks for the info/links you provide, lots of food for thought.
ATB
No worries @Mick,
Feel free to share and credit @weathergeek from LSE. As can anyone. If I am wrong anywhere you won't take the fall.
As for the actual share price, Well thats open to how much people value returns like that. As time goes on, those getting in later and later, will have less attractive returns.
This is a lesson to me playing out, I want to know what the market will value SYME at and how long it will take. I'm way ahead of the market on this one. Awaiting feedback and results to see and help me in the future.
Extrader, the 1.4bn is from other, already established channels. The bank funding is surplus to the 1.4bn as an additional funding source.
Kim, maybe I won’t waste my time with you after this post
Filtered ..
For knowing nothing ..
Many thanks WeatherGeek.
You are fast becoming SYME 'stuff of legend'.