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I really dont think they are losing to much sleep about how much they will pay. They are one of the biggest companies quoted in london. GSK, a similar sized company,bought a smallish american company last year for €5 b. The shareholders hardly battered an eyelid. It was just regarded as a great company with very few comments about the price. Remember it's the company's money, not their money. I think we are reading to much into the price. I think when all the dust settles and everything comes out in the wash, it will be more about strategy rather than how much they had to pay. If someone else bids ,they would soon put their money on the table to counter.
Colonel Drake I don't think Ecuador would have any hesitation in the slightest about selling to the Chinese. There is no evidence that BHP have been buying more shares. Any big buying and the market would been to be informed
Novice and Monte, you both see what I see. This is the power of a diverse book. Some on here add up BHP, NCM and CGP, and say they are against us. But they wouldn't sell up cheap. They are in competition. Remember NCM have publicly stated they want to add, so they won't be selling at any price, as they are thinking long term and want this to go to production.
big money involved, so not surprised a tough poker game under way. Alpala could cost $4bln+. Acquisition of SOLG could cost $3bln or more. It's easy for a major to fund itself these days but BHP as an example has been focussed on reducing debt and are now sub $10bln in debt. Hence, they could find 40%+ of that being added in with a SOLG takeover and ensuing costs.
SOLG's current market cap is around $1bln ish, so bagging the lot for $2bln is better than paying $3bln. The more shares BHP and co can get at sub 40p levels the better for them. Could knock off $300m to $400m further down the line.
Greater powers out there right now working hard to freeze the chinese out of almost everything. Politically, pressure could be placed on the soon to become Ecuador president to do a deal with a non chinese firm eg BHP etc and in return a certain super power will help the out with some other bits. mmm.
Copper and gold are going to be vital in the coming years and the volatility in leading regions/countries like Chile and Venezuela and so on is making the super major miner lives a misery. They want a new region in their folios big time.
Q, they HAVE to absolutely take that position as this is now a game of poker between 3 or 4 parties and not showing your hand too early comes to mind. I'm sure you could cut the atmosphere with a knife when they are all in the same room or zoom meeting as is now the norm!
Novice they did it for the reasons stated in the RNS. They are changing from an explorer to a producer. They made that clear. The Bod consists of the governance and expertise required to build and go into production. They have now stated that the new CEO will have construction experience in block cave mining. The direction and intent is clear .
I'm not sure Nick was outwitted as that implies some kind of intelligence and actually what seems to have happened is more akin to muscle than brain power. If you tally up the CGP SOLG shareholding, add in NCM and BHP, I think you get around 34% ish. I can't remember the exact analysis on this but do recall a poster doing a very could summary of the main holders and they weights they carried in votes.
The conclusion was (I believe) that Blackrock were the ones that sided with the motley crew cgp, ncm and bhp. In my opinion blackrock are as flaky as some pi's on here and are probably more than happy to take 50p+ tomorrow.
If you assume the motley crew control 35% of share capital, then blackrock gets them just past 41%. That's a sizable total and doesn't take more than a minor 4% swing on the pi or fund managers front to see it past 51%. I think BHP have options that could see them add a further 4%+. So perhaps that's 55%+ in the bag. If we speculate and say there at at least 5%+ share capital in flaky retail hands, then if BHP offered 50p+ for the lot would taht get them 60%+ assuming NCM and concert party etc?
I think 75% makes it conditional but can't be sure on that.
I guess what I am saying is, it's vital that BHP and NCM do not get more of an equity share in SOLG which is why NM opted for the Franco deal rather than blowing $100m of shares at 21p to ncm and bhp gifting them greater stakes
Outwitted? No. More like ganged up on by a bunch of bullies who want this company on the cheap. Why wouldn't they? That's business for you. Tough world and all that. But why pay $3bln when you can pay $2bln?
I don't think NM had any choice. To get the best for shareholders, he needed to keep NCM and BHP's ownership from swelling higher and thus gifting them control.
He suffered for it. He lost his job.
Deal making is tough. 90% full of bluffs. But the chinese 32p placing wasn't a bluff and that's our only hope for top dollar imho so perhaps NM has been outwitted at all.
Hi Fast I spoke to them last night and they confirmed details of all regional projects would be included in quarterlies . They added this in no way meant that other drilling results would not be released in the meantime.... pretty clear there’s plenty to come here. Let’s be honest the “ take it to production “ mantra is wearing thin now and they’ve simply come to realise this is no longer an option, within a year 2025 has slipped to 2027 and I don’t believe there’s a cat’s chance in hell they’d get anywhere close . Sense appears to have finally taken over .
Q, I'm clearly expressing my thoughts from this point onwards as I have also been here coming up for 5+ years. Not withstanding the "removal" of Nick has shown that certain parties/investors want a brisk resolution, otherwise why do it.
OK Fastjet as you love a good conspiracy theory, I will give you one. We have been here since 2006, that's 15 years now. Every communication goes out into space, and travels at the speed of light. Andromeda is only 2.5 billon light years away. I understand that as a Galaxy they have a Copper shortage. Expect a bid in 2.5 billion years after we build it. OK that's my take and a lot more sensible than some on here.