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Hi Quady...for some reason I'm now having to sign in every day and I just saw one of your posts which was the most sensible and well informed that you have ever posted.
I hope you are well and looking forwrd to the festive season...
Signing off...red...
Good morning Jerry, if a MM is filling an order and it's off book then it's not reported until the order is filled.
I made this point rather clumsily, earlier this morning.
It's a possibility that this is what's occurring.
Red, you make some interesting points about the buyer of the 42m shares, but surely the same questions can be posed about the seller, which you conveniently ignore. My guess is that its more likely to be a shuffle within groups, but its just a guess. Anyone talking to Fawzi?
On another related point, I have heard on more than one occasion that buyers/sellers dont need to report holdings via an RNS until they have completed their order. I have never heard of this till a few years ago. Does anyone know whether this is a fact or just urban myth?
No worries...Industrual Metals down 1.5%...copper down...gold down...
SOLG only temporary...
Mornin Pinot
Prob part of the equation logically ;-9
Thanks for sharing prob more factual info than most of the cr-so spouted by some of our more recent bb residents n their incessant flannel
R’s n best wishes
Bn.c
This is fun
Red's rain smells a bit like.... Urine?!
Now thats interesting....
It looks like the big buyer is still around because although I was able tio buy those 100k, I am firmly bid for 500k at just below the market price...
That suggests to me that there is one MM buying in size while my putchase was filled with parcels from the rest of the market...
After all my boy...a market maker has to make an honest crust and the best way is to keep actively trading...
;-)
Morning Jezzoo that's the whole point of buying off book you cannot see it until it's reported.
It's the mopping up of sells.
That is one of the reasons why you get more buys and the share price goes down as the sells are not reported within that time period.
I am making a bit of a hash explaining this, and I am not even sure this has happened, but it's possible.
Bought another 100,000 at 17.86...
I esxpect that to be our last purchase ever...
Now thats curious...
There was a bargain booked at 19p in the first four reported on the LSE Official site but now its gone and been replace by one at 18.18...
How do they do that...?
Quady: >Lastly this may still be going on and we may see other large trades as we go along.<
Good point, I hadn't thought of that.
Although if that is the case I would have thought the SP would have risen on the likelyhood of it.
IE buying from people who can see the machinations of what has just happened.
Brokers can't borrow shares...market makers/participants can...
And irrespectuve of whether my speculatiion is right or wrong below....
Somebody paid 19.20 for 42 million shares...
Jiangxi bought 6.3% of the company....
Short of a general market crash, what can go wrong...?
Actually addickt I think it was an accumulation, which is why it had the Trade Flag of tNCP, allowing the price not to affect the market price...
As you know, with the much higher volumes over the last month or so (at least double the long run average), I have been confident there has been a persistent buyer in the background and as I mentioned before, if it is one order it doesn't have to be posted until it is complete...insdeed I wonder if the 14.5 million shares that Norges bank had lent had something to do mith this...and we know that Blackrock lends shares...
Such share borrowing could enable a MM for example to sell shares it didn't own while they accumulated the order...
Just speculation but...
Oh my oh my...what is this share price doing sub 18...this is ridiculous...last chance to buy before the takeover train leaves the station...?
The thing is Jezzoo, it's about tracking this information.
I don't think an expert exists as I have friends who are working in the industry and this is a subject we have broached many times before.
You need some kind of trace on the trades.
Apart from the MM's records I don't know another way of looking at this.
I can see shorting, share manipulation and other things, but that's because I can prove it.
In this case I cannot prove what has happened.
Lastly this may still be going on and we may see other large trades as we go along.
Do we know the brokers name who sold them ?
That might be a start, is it possible a private order was placed with a broker who bought them and then sold them all to the buyer for a price agreed including their fee ? It wouldn't have to be the brokers money, it may have been financed by the eventual buyer.
With the SP being where it has been for the last weeks it wouldn't have been hard to do it, it would explain why the SP went up in the mornings and fell back in the afternoon many times.
Clutching at straws I know but I'm surprised we don't have an expert on here who could explain it.
Just chucking ideas out there addicknt.
I am unsure, but I have been following buys and sells for the last month and when more have been bought and share price has fallen.
One of the reasons maybe off book buying.
But I agree the numbers are too big.
On reporting the average, I believe you are correct, and like you I don't see how you could pay an agreed price even with DMA and not see it show up unless an actual trade in real time.
I think the truth is none of us has got a scoobie and it's unlikely we'll ever be enlightened.
Morning all... Sprotts ETF fund is a few million shares lighter, if thats anything to do with the mystery, as my ETF knowledge is almost nil.
Pinot
:0)
Q, I understand what you're saying, but I don't think that's what's happened. They would not have been able to buy all those shares at the exact price of 19.20 from multiple sellers and you can't apply an average price when reporting.
I think they are rolled up trades, as trade not contributing too. Is a series of rolled up trades.
Incredible. This is red's rampiest effort yet. Unbelievable stuff. I know he has me blocked, but will someone as how much more buying he will be doing today? Because if this level of confidence is genuine he will be selling other holdings to buy here.
Yes, obviously I'm completely onside with all of that, but this was not a market accumulation so must have been a single seller and yet we've seen no evidence of that in the trades. And the markets reaction is certainly counter-intuitive.
Morning addicknt, the large amount of shares that showed up yesterday, seem to be many trades that have been made over a period of time off book.
This type of activity occurs when someone wants to build a position, but doesn't want to affect the price.
Eventually it has to go on book.
Which is what I believed happened yesterday.
Maybe because shares were being borrowed and eventually enough sellers were found to fill the order.
I have never found a way of tracking this activity, so if anyone knows how to do this, you certainly have my gratitude.
This is probably someone else entering the game, as it's a large number and if one of the main players it may have passed a threshold requiring an RNS and I feel we would have had one by now.