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Worth remembering that this is an all share deal being proposed, so Anglo shareholders effectively become BHP shareholders and that might not be a bad thing in some eyes.
BHP's OZ minerals buy was cash and shows some level of cash spend.
Any deal with Anglo would likely take 12months+ to 18months to complete. There's alot to unpick there and it's going to have the entire sector going bananas soon.
What are RIO Tinto up to these days?? They might fancy a stab at Anglo too. Not that much between BHP and Rio imho. Give ot take £30bln. lol!
Hotting up big time!
I'm still astonished at BHP's move. That said, I can't see it winning through unless they up it by another 5 or 7 billion or so. Can't see Anglo shareholders letting it go for less than £30 a share.
If BHP do fail to acquire Anglo... I wonder what else they will then turn to!
Nice article, bodes well for the patient. Ignore the noise from the idiots
BHP Group Ltd.’s blockbuster bid for Anglo American Plc looks set to usher in an era of frenetic deal-making in the mining business as competitors jostle for position during the energy transition.
The combination would add bulk to BHP’s colossal iron-ore operation and create, by far, the world’s largest copper mining business. The kind of high-quality assets in Anglo’s portfolio are hard to come by, and the shock bid looks likely to bring other suitors into the fray.
Simultaneously, industry majors probably will accelerate their hunts for other large or fast-growing copper assets to keep pace with BHP.
The revival of mining M&A has been a long time coming. The biggest producers got burned on acquisitions they made at the top of the China-led supercycle that began in the mid-2000s, and it’s taken more than a decade for executives to warm back up to the idea of major deals.
It’s arguably taken even longer to convince shareholders they’ll handle them more deftly this time around.
The mood is shifting fast thanks to a new generation of leaders — including BHP Chief Executive Officer Mike Henry and Glencore Plc’s Gary Nagle, who bid $23 billion for Teck Resources Ltd. soon after taking over from the famously cost-conscious Ivan Glasenberg.
Teck’s controlling shareholder proved strongly opposed to letting go of its copper and zinc assets, but the two miners ultimately found alignment on a plan leading them to combine and then spin off their coal assets into a standalone company.
Glencore will have a lot of financial firepower once that deal is done and an undiminished appetite to beef up its portfolio after a steady decline in copper production in recent years.
Rio Tinto Plc, with its particularly iron-heavy portfolio, likely will search for copper acquisitions, as well. However, Western miners face stiff competition from Chinese producers that kept spending during a downswing in the 2010s.
Cash-rich Middle Eastern companies also have emerged as pivotal players.
The contest between miners will be intense, and so will the scrutiny from governments keenly aware of copper’s strategic importance to a clean-energy future.
--Mark Burton, Bloomberg News
To clarify, I don't think we'll be around another 2 years but it might take a two outlook approach to finally push some into taking some action. The point being that any potential bidder knows that short term funding is just time wasting at best. It won't advance Alpala or derisk it at all ... as Alpala needs at least $50m to $100m spending on it to derisk it further or to a point whereby that cash actually looks well spent.
April 25th.... today. 5 days before May kicks in... then 15 days for MD&A deadline I believe... then about 20 days thereafter... d-day for signing the activation clause on the exploitation phase.
They've got about 5 to 6 weeks left of this charade imho.
Pressure is mounting on Bob but market backdrop has improved greatly so no excuses for poor performances.
Orpherncopper... a royalty deal won't hurt the chinese if it ends up being done with the chinese! Osisko is by default a chinese funding player imho. And remember, all royalty deals have buy back clauses that reduce the impact on the asset profitability by over 50% or more. So it's smallfry stuff when you are dealing in multi billions.
Better still, tell us how low it’s going then tell us you’re still holding long because you like losing money for a laugh 🤪🤪🤪🤪
#Stackenomics
No thanks to any more royalty deals... Every royalty deal we do makes the discovery less profitable to any major considering taking it on..
It will be a cheap placing of the CGP shares... At nowhere near the $25 million Scott spoke of them being worth 12 months ago..
Then another 12 months of floundering, obfuscation around whats happening and more requests for support come the AGM. salaries and options all around..
Fort, Jigggg. Another 2 years to hold this puppy! Heck!
Just wish they would clarify our position, mate!
Don’t for one bit believe we will miss the Bull Market tho!
The Wolf of Dubai appears when his mate Eloro gets slammed.
Hows trading been today Suhail you muppet
Why don't you stick your neck out and tell us what price this is going down too?
Point 1 I believe is what is required to pass the going concern test. So that is the funding I am referring to.
They are in no rush to get anything else sorted because snouts are firmly in the trough and it will not be easy to get them away from the trough. Sad to see that you are forecasting out another 2 years Fort. I think that the copper bull market would have passed by then. If Scott cannot flog a tier 1 in a bull market, then he is indeed a buffoon!!
Eloro, sort what funding out?? There's two funding requirements needed before the market will feel it understands where SOLG is going...
1. A $20m raise to keep the lights on ... bred and butter stuff.
2. A ring fenced raise to further derisk Alpala.
In the case of point 1.. that's already a given as we've been told it will be non dilutive. So that's likely based on CGP shares get sold.
Point 2 is a tricky one... some will say Alpala does not need any more derisking... leave it to the next guy etc. Others will say, it cost $60m last year to get us to a revised PFS. mmm! Hence ring fenced cash for ENSA will have to be $50m+ at the very least.
It's quite possible that there might be a 3 way deal brokered that involves, a sale of Porvenir and sale of 5% CGP shares to Chinese along with a 0.6% royalty with Osisko for $50m (also chinese so they'll be happy with royalty deal).
That might see $100m to $200m for Porvenir (and that's for a stake in it not a full 100% ownership). $50m from Osisko and say $20m to $25m from cgp share sale.
That could bring in $250m to $300m in cash and sort the derisking on Alpala through to DFS inc elevator shaft works. Likely to take us through to 2026.
For most... the idea of another 2 years will feel painful... but that pain will be shared by potential buyers on sidelines which might include NMM, FMG, BHP, and a few others. Then ... and only then might they make a move as waiting another 2 years will set them back.
I'd rather see the SR released an confirmation on talks with interested parties that might end in a sale or not etc. That would see us back over 25p+ imho in no time at all.
Being the muppet that I am, I don't understand why our buffoon of a ceo is willing to accept 30c, and why are folks talking about 35p as a good price given what we have in the ground? Surely we are worth more than 30c, 35p?
Lol 130 rampy posts in the last 30 days and the 🤡 accuses de rampers of working overtime.
The delusion is not limited to solg’s sp by the looks of it 🤣🤣🤣
Traded multiple times since last summer, add. Want to see my spreadsheet? Wasn't going to miss a 6-10p rise, but like I said it wasn't based on anything, and not sustainable, so I got out in the 9s to ensure I wasn't trapped like red, bbg et al. All about being ambitious but not greedy. People buying shares now, before the drop on fundraise news, are mental.
Sound observations as usual BBG
I think this BHP move is a response to Chinas gathering power in the copper market...and indeed other metals...
Totally agree with you Fort. However, I wouldn't buy more until I know that funding is no longer an issue. My number 1 concern is to see funding sorted which would calm my nerves and dismiss the possibility that we might fail the going concern test, or that Ecuador might end up with the assets. Sort funding now is my clarion call!!!
An amendment to my earlier post - GGP should, of course, have read SOLG, but I hold GGP as well in a basket of pre-production miners.
Thank goodness...
For another boring day, without the SP being trshed by Autotrades...
A measly 246k shares traded in the first 3 hours...thats 23 every second...zzzzzz...
And look at TMX last night...only 1k...yes one thousand shares trased all day...
Thats ONE share every 29 seconds...
So we wait.....
But I still believe this collapse in activity portends something about to happen...
Mind you it is friday...55p by close Novice...?
I agree with your position ByronBayGold. Rick Rule who is well-known in mining circles prefers prices dropping in order to buy more. He assumes that you are invested for a variety of well-researched reasons and are therefore not frightened by a fall in prices! To reap the benefit of such early stage investments takes many years of patience - 10 years plus to bring a mine into production. Once producing the stock price will be in the pounds rather than the pence. I invest in early stage miners for the future benefit of my children/grandchildren. Do I expect dilution with GGP - of course I do, that's almost a given with this type of investment, but I hold funds in readiness for such an event
SH, you told us the other day that you'd sold your shares before the current downturn. Presumably you sold in the Spring/Summer of last year?
Eloro,
Whilst I'm uber critical of Bob and Scott, the asset is unquestionably outstanding. It will get sold even if the inept management take far too long over it... it will get sold for market rate. That's how it works.
You need to remember that Noboa is firmly behind it, you need to remember that Franco have chucked $100m at it. Osisko $50m. These guys know they'll be getting their money.
So buy the dips and get nicely positioned ahead of what should be a pretty tasty bid auction process judging by how bad BHP need to bolster their resources with deals like Anglo American. Who's next to make a move?? We've seen NCM gobbled up... Oz minerals gobbled up... Anglo possibly gobbled up... it's all about consolidation and picking off prime assets right now while things are a bit beaten up.
It's coming... and soon imho.
There is no desperation Eloro or Stackhigh.
It seems the derampers are working overtime.
I am happy for the SP to go down short term as I will buy more.
I am here for the long term and so I can wait as long as possible.
I had a good chuckle 1984 😆 who isn't up for a bit of fingering?!
BBG, my concern is that we have been told that we have a tier 1, people in the data room, expression of interest blah blah. Here we are, still left on the shelf. 1 of our strategic investor decided to look elsewhere. Surely that is not a positive sign for us. We are on death row by the look of it and will be walking our last walk if funding isn't sorted sharpish. You carry on holding BBG, but don't forget that folks can read the desperation in your tweets on X.
Strange to sit back and leave your money in a company if your accept nothing is going to happen anytime soon.
Bbg, your very long story was exactly what I expected when I posted first thing. The same rampy nonsense that you've been spouting for years about how we might be on the cusp of a deal with a long list of people.
Bhp are busy, and interested in producers. They don't counter a low ball bid because a) there isn't about to be one and b) the amount they stand to lose is chicken feed, but a bit could cost them vital leverage
Newmont are unlikely to be interested in a copper play that's so far off first production. If I'm wrong, they certainly won't be trying to buy us in 2024 or 2025, so again, odd to leave your money in before a fundraise if that's your strategy
Jiangxi could have doubled their holding on the cheap if they wanted to (might still when we go cap-in-hand). It still doesn't mean they fancy a costly takeover when they can see the chance of a cheaper route to Cascabel.
But your efforts to claim BHP being tied up in an unrelated TO as a win are 👍🤣
“ bit squashed, a bit broken… been looked at, squeezed and fingered by all customers”
I won’t, but it took huge restraint on my part!
M&A cycles in mining always start with producers being lapped up before explorers become the next targets. Good signs lately we’re definitely in such a i cycle