Synairgen Share Chat (SNG)

Sisyphus
I agree that cash and funding shoukd always be questionned.
Results not due yet
RNS 05120
30 Sep “ The trial is expected to complete dosing in Q1 2020 with results available in Q2. “
We are not nearly at end of Q1 yet.
I don’t see an issue necessarily...just a waiting game unless results are early or some other intervention.
Buys being facilitated today after tree-shake causing sharp rise.Once buy fulfilled it sticks unless they want to shake more and cheaper shares free. Quite volatile even for an AIM share.

I think the problem is you're making assumptions (wrongly imo).

You're assuming SNG001 results are not out till H2. Not only is that wrong for the published expected conclusion of the trial (which is April). It may be even more wrong as this year's flu spike came two months early and therefore there's every chance the trial could have concluded 2 months earlier (ie this month).

I think it's also wrong to suggest "Synairgen was confident that Pharmaxis would sign a deal in Q4 2019" or were reliant/planning for that. In fact the last placing was explictly done to expand the SNG001 trial and "To provide additional resources to invest in up to two new early stage opportunities which have been identified by the company" and "provide working capital for the company". They've not spent any of that money on new opportunities and should fine.

Biggest question as raised previously is cash and funding. Synairgen was confident that Pharmaxis would sign a deal in Q4 2019. That didn't happen and has been pushed back so funding must be 'tight' to say the least. I can't see any quick resolution as SNG001 results not out till start H2. Any other ideas??

I missed out, was doing housework, just been quoted 14.25 to buy, i like my 7.4 average too much to go that high but i’m as greedy as ever

(worth perhaps not the right word - just to be clear - that's number of shares rather than pounds or pence)

Scratch that. Someone's bought over 400k worth.

Was a bit slow off the mark there. Were some on offer for 13p but but someone's beaten me to it and bought 110k worth. Price now back up to nearly 14p already.

After each big rise recently we've had a period of selling as people take profit (usually around 5-7 trading days long).
The actual total volume of sells isn't that big but the further the MMs move it down the more shares the less they pay to restock their coffers.
They'll be loving it.

She is trying to find traction.

Any thoughts on the last 3 days selling? Seems to be no let up?

Disagree on the timings.

1) There is literally nothing to stop them announcing a deal in 2 minutes time for LOXL2 (it's impossible to judge that and a potential partner could offer a deal at any moment - stealing a march on interested rivals - fact is it's well overdue already)
3) Trial results for SNG001, the main thing, could be considerably earlier (based on the fact the April estimate would have been based on a flu season which is typically two months later than actually happened). Bring that estimate forward two months and it's February (ie now). Personally I'd bet they already know the outcome, largely speaking, and it's been around a month and a half since the flu levels returned to normal. For all we know they've nearly finished sifting/processing the data for release (or doing deals based upon it). Again hard to tell without being made an insider. I wouldn't be surprised if the background origin of the buying is coming from those who know the gist of the results.

Points 4/5.........this is AIM. The rules regarding disclosure are ignored left right and centre with no punishment (or weaselled around). I've seen TR-1 disclosure notifications where about 10 different thresholds were crossed in one go once finally released. The market makers need these pullbacks, they HAVE to make a market, and think how many shares they've sold on the way up......they NEED people to see a falling market and sell them some shares. Otherwise they've got nothing to sell to buyers and they can't make a market. Right now they'll be desperate to restock their coffers.

As for the major holders - I imagine nothing has changed. They've only ever increased their holdings and a recovery in price is irrelevant. It's still well below their last purchase price in the placing. They'll have been investing for the real value creation event(s) which could now come at any moment (SNG001/LOXL2 results/deals) and quite possibly with a takeover in mind as the end game (that's still got to be a very real possibility here - and would also not be surprised if that ends up being the result here - if someone offered 50p/share here - it'd be peanuts to big pharma and far cheaper than a deal for SNG001 might end up after all the milestones - with the LOXL2 interest proceeds as a bonus).

That's the thing, if I was short-term trading this, I'd have sold out for 17p+ on the spike, as I'm sure a small few did (and then a further few following that, leading to the quick pullback). However, as I wish to be in for the results of LOXL2 or SNG001, where the big money will be made, my incentive to do so is low, as I know there could now be news on either of them at any moment. Predicting when is going to be a mugs game! (it's simply possible at any point from now onwards)

Excellent post. Clear and intelligent anslysis.Credit.

The last Week or two has seen what I call extreme trading..
My thoughts relate to the following...
(1) Pharmaxis : No news expected on Corporate Partnering for LOXL2 until the earliest end of March 20.
(2) Preliminary statement of results for the year ended 31 December 2019 due around end of Feb 20
(3) No News expected on Part 2 of Synairgen’s Phase II clinical trial in patients with COPD until end of Q2 2020, there might be reference / update on the current trial with Preliminary statement of results around end of Feb 2020
(4) No information currently available regarding the near 20% of Neil Woodfords holding, Where is it? Who has it ? and what might become of it.. other than speculation.
(5) No TR-1 from anybody / organisation regarding adding or reducing their current holdings.. including Ex Neil Woodfords stake.
The Market Size for trading SNG shares is 10000.. I appreciate that this can be nothing more than a guide but I cannot relate to where these 6 figure trades are coming from … both buy / sells.. 100K, 125K, 150K, 200 K etc.. The sheer size of each of these trades should be enough to either send the shares to the moon or crashing to the floor.. But still these trade volumes continue..
I appreciate that Market Makers play games to both gather stock and sell stock on their books but the sheer size of some individual trades does in my mind question the reality of current trading. and yet it is happening..With dramatic swings of the SNG share price taking place.. today down nearly 10% other days closing even higher..One might assume as Rich states that there is dramatic action happening behind the scenes..this may be true but no TR1 has been issued either adding or reducing their holdings .. 3% which is the baseline for reporting a major holding would mean that any holder with approx. 3.3 million SNG shares would have to issue a TR1declaring their interest.. Yet nothing..
In summary .. we SNG shareholders have a lot to look forward to , hopefully all good news... but does the current share trading in anyway reflect pure speculation, bored private investors selling up, Market Makers shenanigans, serious purchases by parties unknown but keeping below the 3% threshold.. What I wonder do major shareholders Leonard Licht and Richard Griffiths make of current trading and volatile share price..Perhaps nothing and are more than happy with their holdings and anticipating significant future increase in the value of their holdings..!!
I am anticipating further volatility over the next few weeks.. hopefully positive to the current share price.. Any official news from any source (see 1- 5 above) will I expect have serious impact on the current share price, drive out the speculators and if positive give long term shareholders the reward they deserve.

MMs picking up cheap shares from capitulators

Hard to tell. Likely a sell amongst the others. At that time 15p was a sell. But was also a buy. Delayed trades are meant to confuse.

135000 buy or sell?

Prob. no help but the £1.79 m expenditure June to June ( fairly high and unsustainable) is offset by R and D 0.84m. Received at unknown date post August. Balance of £950,000 as “ working capital spent” . Unsurprising pre-tests. That’s where the money goes. Q2 alleged test results (according to last year RNS ) leaves a while. Enough “ working capital” to coast atm.
As I said...perhaps this post redundant or no help. But stated cash in hand is crucial for unexpected or the expected. I hold one other share-doing terribly because of the” corona effect” on China demand.. But it is debt free and cash rich with high NAV.
Take pain and wait.

No worries.
However, will be largely immaterial imo, in the sense of they should have enough to complete this study, with a bit left over to tide things over. At that point, success should see this SP rocketing, and they'll be trying to do a partnering deal (or they'll rubber stamp one they've already lined up).
Also in the background is the potential for PXS and their partnering of LOXL2 which could be sealed at any moment and provide a tidy cash boost.

Thanks Rich. Looks like strong cash burn between June 2018 and June 2019.....£4.7m on my bag of ciggie packet calculations.

Hopefully that has tailored off as the studies have progressed.

Yeah, very little selling, and still someone mopping up what little sells there were, with that 25k at the end (appeared to be only one sell - or two if you count the small UT). Very encouraging.

Shame about the altercation on the BB, steady day today. Ifs certainly consolidated at these levels now

Back tomorrow

I've held my tongue so far, despite your essay after essay of abusive, hypocritical, pompous, presumptuous, vindictive, utter garbage. Once you realise this you'll maybe just finally shut up and stop ruining this board.

Apologies all round .
Particularly to Sisyphus.
Time out here. No point staying if I keep getting retorts.Inflammatory.
Please return to more sensible conversations.

Whatever you said was expected. I guess it makes you feel better for it.
Very sad though.
Goodbye was not enough.
Can you now leave it or not?