Member Info for Alpha-dog

Explorer- I weirdly was wildly speculating in the same way. I thought it important to say nothing substantive behind the speculation in case a rumour started.

I think the minimum was £250 per retail investor. Don’t know if anyone invested more?

Offer closed early at 7.30pm so no difficulty in raising what they were looking for.

My suspicion is that this is a positive and there may be good news behind it. Time will tell. I suspect it is to support faster scale of production with licensees. There may have been bottlenecks in ceres parts of the process. Someone mentioned nvidia as a possible investor. That would fairly get things going if true but I don’t think there is anything substantive to support that. Interesting times 🤔

Add to this the nvidia delta electronics link for AI power architecture and we have the touch paper ready to set this stock on fire. I think this may be the last chance sub £7.

Dark forces in play.

Quote on the scale of protium’s ambitions

“With operational assets in Wales, presence in Scotland and projects advancing in South Tees, we are scaling toward a 1 GW UK portfolio to establish a resilient, self-sufficient, and competitive domestic hydrogen economy,” said Christopher Jackson, CEO of Protium.”

Huge. AI big guys have also had a huge day today. I predict a recovery tomorrow.

The Welsh morgen project announced FID in March. They have a much larger Danish project in development. Is it the Danish project that you are referring to? If so great news.

Great article. Love the top tag line

“Leading the Charge: Bloom Energy

The Underdogs: Ceres Power and Co”.

I was looking for connections between nvidia and our licensees and came up with this.

Delta Electronics is one of the key power module suppliers in NVIDIA’s 800V DC ecosystem. Delta co-developed the “Panama” medium-voltage DC power solution and released a Data Center 800V DC Power Technology White Paper. Delta is already deeply embedded in NVIDIA’s data centre power architecture as a hardware supplier.

So the chain for Delta is: NVIDIA (800V DC ecosystem partner) ↔ Delta Electronics ↔ Ceres Power (SOFC licensee.

GB energy’s £40m is currently worth £150m.

Nice to have that on the ballance sheet ahead of the launch of the GB energy investment arm fund this Summer.

Smashed the £2 mark.

Impressions aside base this on forward looking revenue, factor in growth and don’t sell until you feel that kind of value has been realised. For me with ITM this is well north of £5 and probably multiples of this. Remember we are coming off lows where the company was valued at little more than cash in hand. Don’t be scared by profits or sentiment look at the fundamentals.

I say this from a position of almost complete inexperience. I sold most of my Bloom too early looking at profit and fear of losing gains. Forward looking fundamentals the key. Hydrogen is happening. Pipelines to transport are being built and green is the clear winner. You are in the right investment.

Levelised cost of electricity. This is extracted from previous post detailing some of the methodology. These are uk electricity costs. Ceres using endurastack beats grid and Bloom assuming some cost reductions with GW level production. At the moment Bloom can probably beat us on time to installation but not for long. This is what the excitement is about currently and why Centrica have joined forces with ceres power and delta. The SP rise hasn’t even started yet. Keep hold. DYOR

Bloom £0.17-0.22

Ceres using endurastack at low volumes £0.13-0.17

Ceres endurastack at higher volumes £0.09-0.13

Grid £0.15-0.25

If anyone wants I can share the link which shows how the assumptions are built up in the model. Claude digs into actual data sheets for the efficiencies, temperatures and lifespans.

Apologies for typo “grid costs” not “grid cup”.

I have just spent some time on Claude looking at models of LCOE for SOFC in data centres in the UK bloom v ceres v grid. This factors in lower manufacturing costs for ceres power licensees and higher efficiencies (due largely to lower operating temperatures) and greater longevity (a huge plus with endurastack)

Levelised cost of electricity

Bloom £0.17-0.22

Ceres using endurastack at low volumes £0.13-0.17

Ceres endurastack at higher volumes £0.09-0.13

Grid cup £0.15-0.25

This is absolutely awesome. Only extra risks here are that Claude estimates time to availability of endurastack is longer due ( Claude estimates 2027) to licensees still building capacity. With waste heat recycling endurastack beats Bloom and grid hands down.

Endurastack totally tilts the balance and I don’t think stock analysts have fully appreciated this. Centrica have.

This is 3 months old and quite technical but very interesting from Bloom exec on AI.

One survey highlighted their traction. I think he said they run the survey every 6 months. Asking data centre developers if they would consider SOFC power solutions. This jumped from 1% to 33% on the most recent run and I suspect that will be much higher soon. It’s nearly 30 mins long but other interesting technical issues mentioned eg supercapacitors.

Doosan fuel cell up 17% overnight and pretty much at all time highs. Bodes well for tomorrow and going forward.

Doosan will go beyond 50MW. They have deals with Hyundai and LG as well as a few other partners to develop the technology. I believe the 50 mw is proving manufacturing and then there will be end use trials followed by scale. Hyundai arrangement is for maritime and LG is waste heat utilisation, important for overall efficiency. Interesting transition from research to demo commercialisation and use by use moving forward to scale. Good business to be in.

Really interesting and well researched article and valuation from UBS. Clearly justifies current SP and based on forward looking but conservative estimates of SOFC from existing licensees. Good work from UBS.