Member Info for Alpha-dog

Https://www.h2-view.com/story/uk-national-wealth-fund-targets-hydrogen-and-carbon-capture-in-5-8bn-plan/2136993.article/

It appears that project Hyspeed aligns perfectly with the nations wealth fund objectives. It may kick start and unlock the private investment needed to move forward with this.

Weekends off. Well deserved for the ITM posters.

Good strong finish to the week leading into results but we are still down 15% in the last 3 months despite a steady stream of good news.

710mw FEED

70mw engineering FEED/BEED

12.5 mw definite order from octopus and the likelihood of this leading to significant further orders.

Update next week is eagerly awaiting. Patience will be needed to allow SP to reflect true value.

We’ll figure scout on 29th. I suspect we will see expectation of growing income and narrowing losses but turning point to profit won’t be 2026. 2027 is a possibility but depending on the lead times for the big FIDs could be 2028.

I hope this isn’t insensitive to anyone who sold on the grizzly report but I would like to think them for generating a fairly nice (and probably last) opportunity to buy at sub £2.50.

Bloom is holding at $150 with a market cap of $34 bn.

To quote ceres we are “second and best”. Bloom have a load of debt (albeit nicely refinanced) and have to negotiate the challenges of scaling manufacturing. Ceres have 4 world class manufacturers either in production or building factories as we type. Hold tight. News of orders and scale of manufacturing will allow the true value of this share to become realised.

Garonne. Who are the wealthy kin in the green hydrogen family? I see ITM as major players in PEM. Outside of neom and alkaline electrolysers there is no company in better shape. Fastest growing industrial company in the uk, top 10 in Europe.

Plug in the US have some bigger projects in pipeline but bigger problems- saddled with dept and imminent dilution fears.

I’m a share holder in both but if I’m honest ITM looks in a lot better shape. FIDs appear to be accelerating and we already have a decent pipeline of secure orders. Not quite at the level to see us to profitability but if even one of our bigger projects lands FID and firm order there should be a clear path. The grid balancing project in Germany is potentially huge for us 710mw and a humungous confidence vote.

Yes. As a stick holder in both plug and ITM I follow them both closely. ITM is better run, more focussed and lower risk. The path to profitability is clear for ITM and we are progressing nicely along this. Plug has more FIDs under its belt and electrolyser sales growing faster but high debt and less good cost control make it significantly riskier. Electrolysers sales is plugs fastest growing division.

Given MCAP ITM is the better bet (plug market cap is 5xITM). In addition plug have a load of debt while ITM have sufficient cash in hand to get through to profitability. Steady execution apparent under DS. Steady nerves needed. Acceleration of FIDs towards stated hydrogen national goals will propel ITM back to 2021 levels.

Bloom have signed a $2.5bn contract with American electric power. A vote of confidence in the technology. Ceres tech is better still.

Keep your seatbelts fastened. A contract of that magnitude with any one of our licensees and ceres SP will hit the Bloom stratosphere.

Own opinion expressed

That’s Denmark and Netherlands progressing with PEM hydrogen electrolysis to balance grid and generate green H2. Good news for us who signed a 710MW FEED to do the same in Germany.

I had been very disappointed in Linde as partner but this may be unfair. A more objective analysis suggests fairly deep involvement and a good source of ITM contracts. Not sure if this link will work but it details over 450 MW of production with ITM as electrolyser supplier in >95%. I have no idea about take over potential these are some of the biggest projects in the world, outside of China and NEOM.

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_695a42d98c2881919ae7618b547e010a

They would certainly make a good pairing. Maybe a minority holding of similar size to Linde, though they haven’t been great strategic partners.

Octopus have just sold a share in “kraken”, their intelligent energy platform, for £1bn. In the last 6 months they have taken full control of Hyro from ORIT (a separate renewables arm) and signed a 12.5MW deal with ITM. I think they may just be getting started and they have the cash and nouse to progress with H2 and grid balancing. Exciting times. Join the dots… but DYOR. My opinion expressed.

Not sure but if you bought at 54 p you are probably feeling pretty good. I’ve already doubled up to average down bug have a long way to break even.

It’s great news for ITM as proof of concept at 20MW electrolysers (nel alkaline). The FEED 710MW project just signed for this stabilisation will draw on this. My understanding is that ITM PEM is ideally suited to this with rapid on/off time.

Interesting Explorer. Thanks.

Agreed. SK are in a unique position to know the best SOFC technology and this pivot to Ceres is very meaningful. I will follow their lead and take advantage of Grizzlies smash and grab share price dip.

Here is a conundrum for the investigative and analytical to look at. What does SK ecoplant MOU with Doosan using ceres technology mean for Ceres and Bloom.

The background is that SK ecoplant I believe was a major Bloom buyer; circa 500MW through 2023 to 2027. They have sold around 1/2 their stake in Bloom this year but still own 4.7% worth around $1.2-1.3bn.

They announced a MOU with Doosan using Ceres technology mean to provide SOFC for data centres in Nov 2025.

This pivot from Bloom to Ceres/Doosan appears to have gone under the radar. What does SK ecoplant people think this means? SK must be the biggest and most experienced SOFC purchaser in the world.

Https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36z2386lw3o.amp

Lack of Green H2 is the problem here. Hydropulse?

Estimate for the whole of 2025 in curtailment cost are £650m to £1bn

H2 green = no brainer

Décent rise so far but still below SP when 710 mw FEED announced. Patience needed.