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I’m not convinced the SP fall has anything to do with the grizzly smash and grab. Bloom is down over 40% from the peak.

Ceres power will need to prove themselves with new partners or existing partners starting to manufacture or increasing capacity. There has been a hiatus in AI enthusiasm and there is news that a big proposed data centre in Michigan is struggling to attract financing.

The fall is part of a wider pause in AI and data centre enthusiasm.

The technology here is good and the business model sound. There will always be those ready to try to move sentiment and make a quick buck just as there are those who take the long term view.

At the moment our near term SP changes will be caught up with the AI, data centre and Bloom energy fortunes. To move beyond that we will need solid news.

I think the green H2 brigade could benefit from trying a few of the populist tricks and I’m not meaning the hair washing 🤣🤣🤣

Good point digi re: populism v democracy. It’s populism’s attacks on the institutions of democracy that worry me the most.

When I first invested here there was what appeared to be a global consensus re: climate change, the need to shift away from FFs and that this would require government support, rather like EVs initially.

Now we have a fragmentation of that apparent global consensus. We have Trump and the ultra right denying climate change and FF companies pulling out of projects having received subsidies (giving the impression that green H2 was a non starter). The ultra right have upped the ante, Trump, MAGA and the global ultra right pushing further and stating the the European science and evidence led consensus is bust. They are simultaneously doubling down on the climate denial and « drill baby drill » agenda and will absolutely pounce on failure in H2 field as evidence of this if the EU, UK, China, South Korea, Australia and Japan fail to deliver on H2 in energy policy and transition. Basically it is Trump and the global ultra right v the democratic centre and left.

Does anyone agree that there is more at stake here than energy policy?

Thanks Vamos. Good expert knowledge. Thanks for sharing.

Regulators must act to prevent this kind of smash and grab raid. Blatant market manipulation.

These territories are very interesting. They have the potential to be big in green H2.

I don’t disagree re:need for FIDs but these follow on from FEED contracts. Significant and sustained upward SP movements will require FIDs, I’m very happy to be in at this level. Managed to average down dramatically. Next up should be some FIDs from the HAR rounds, as breakOD has pointed out.

These are just my opinions. Please DYOR. There is little doubt that this still represents a high risk investment but the upside from here is very large.

Agreed. Good robust strategy and SP for tris pilot fairly close to pre-grizzly levels.

There is no doubt that SP manipulation like this is illegal. FCA must act and issue punitive fines. The USA would not stand for a foreign company to attack markets in this way. Neither should the UK.

MW not me. Sorry

Good question. There is transparency about bloom manufacturing capacity and some serious solid orders. Ceres is still at the potential stage. Doosan have only declared 50 me. Other partners we aren’t sure. Once this information starts to come through I think we will be in a different place SP.

Dennis was correct. Ammonia is a carrier for energy made from hydrogen. It’s only green if the hydrogen used to make the ammonia is green. The ammonia is made from hydrogen using the Haber Bosch process.

Whether ammonia, liquid hydrogen or compressed hydrogen is used is peripheral to ITM, they provide the source green H2.

BPs blue H2 plans abandoned in favour of big data centres. Could this be an opportunity for ceres power and some UK green tech?

Nice analysis people.

Fair comments “up” but genuine orders start with FEED contracts and these should generate some modest near term revenue.

For my assessment this represents extraordinary value and opportunity. Germany are building H2 pipeline and infrastructure. They are going to want some H2 to pipe. The pendulum seems to have swung away from blue H2.

What is very interesting here is the grid balancing aspect. Unless we move away from wind energy there is going to need to be grid balancing. Huge issue in Netherlands. Becoming huge in uk with curtailment costs expected to top £2bn per year within 4 years.

Unless you are betting on FFs this investment makes sense. Even if you are betting on FFs this might just be a great hedge.

DYOR. Opinions are my own.

I would be surprised if ceres power was considered for these contracts. Plug power is PEM. Ceres power is SOEC. Different technologies, different strengths and weaknesses.

ITM power may be disappointed. I think this has been known about some time.

Another major improvement is that factory acceptance test (FAT) first-time pass rate has increased from below 50% to 99% in approximately two years.

Denis and team delivering.

I’m in full agreement here. Huge moment in terms of contracts this year.

Grid balancing is hugely important. One part of this is curtailment costs. 2024 uk direct costs to government £390m total costs £1.2bn with predicted rise to £2.2bn cost to government by 2030. Multiply this across Europe and the potential is huge. Netherlands apparently already have huge problems in this area.

This is an obvious place for PEM and it is good to see ITMs potential becoming a reality in this area. SP currently values company at £250m over cash in hand. I have been planning to top up as news gathers momentum but had expected to have to pay more. Opportunity on Monday morning to top in the UKs fastest growing manufacturing company ( and Europes too 10 fastest growing).

Nerves. Nvidia post record results, beating sky high expectations and there is a near 10% intraday swing in one of the largest companies in the world.

Bloom and Ceres simply following this sentiment.

Bloom I kind get but ceres is still the bargain in the basement here but still sentiment knows no logic. Fundamentals for ceres are very strong but I expect volatility until the hard numbers start to align.

That will mean our existing licensees booking orders or dedicating increased manufacturing capacity or both, new licensees or a strategic player like Blackrock taking a bite.

Here’s another more left field suggestion. SoftBank? Just speculating but we know the AI revolution needs powered and ceres tech can do it.

It certainly did Midge. Nice call. I’m not a day trader though. Tempted 🤔. Long term very, very strong here.

Good deal on the H2 power. What we don’t know is where Doosan are going to get the hydrogen. Green? Blue?

Doosan, as far as I am aware only hold SOFC license, not SOEC.