The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The numbers are good and that ANOH is on trackā¦
However, I a disappthat they have not increased the dividend. Thatās been softened by the special but with the amount of cash on balance they should either pay debt, return or do more of both.
Also ā We remain highly confident that President Tinubu's administration will approve our acquisition of Exxon Mobil's share capital of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU).ā
I thought from the interview it had been approved and it was waiting for the BoDās to finalise?
Not really sure what is going on there.
Usual caveats
Trek
Amazing results:
- Revenue growth +11.5% YoY (up from 3.8% in H1 i.e. it's accelerating)
- EBITDA growth +7.4% YoY (up from minus -32% in H1 i.e. huge improvement)
- Free Cash Flow _after_ all the massive investments being done is +$260m i.e. 20% of market cap
- Strongest language yet on MPNU acqusition
- Reserves at ATH +9% YoY
- Dividend $15c i.e. 9% dividend yield on yesterdays close
Cash at bank $450m (2022: $404m), Revenue $1,061.3 million up 12%, Production averaged 47,758 boepd, up 8%, special dividend of US 2.4p, in addition to Q4 23 declared dividend of 2.4p, confident will acquire transformational Exxon Mobil's (MPNU)
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1763105027000881450
Well it all looks hunky dory to me. 6 cents total dividend, and no doubt a few questions about the Exxon deal at lunchtime. They have the cash at the ready so good to go, maybe some shares deals in the background still ongoing by powers that be. They've proved beyond doubt, if they ever had to prove it, to be the right company to take those assets forward. Seplat has been and is such a good investment in my portfolio,
Results tomorrow. I worry that after the recent rise we need one or two of the following to prevent a pull back in the SP tomorrow, we potentially might not get any...
- concrete reassurance on the Exxon deal (a confirmation would be the dream but I don't expect they would hold that news back for results)
- A large special dividend announcement
- Confirmation that ANOH remains on schedule and has not suffered further delays.
Fingers crossed and Good luck to holders
Central Bank has just raised interest rates by 400bps, a very orthodox move at stabilising the currency. Nigerian fixed income is rallying. This administration is serious about fixing the mistakes of the past ten years. Can only be good for the private sector with a long term view. Surely MPNU sign-off is next?
Not so sure this will have much impact. The Naira depreciation hasn't impacted the SP so far as sales and profits are in USD. Seplat are also not looking to borrow in Naira at huge interest rates. They have a decent cash pile. If anything this reads to me that it's smaller peers that are being hammered by the FX rates.
I have no idea what the implications of this report are for Nigeria oil and gas but it doesn't look good or if it will impact Sepl opinions appreciated.
https://politicsnigeria.com/fx-crisis-oil-and-gas-dealers-threaten-shutdown-as-70-of-downstream-businesses-collapse/
Https://www.seplatenergy.com/investors/financial-calendar/
Upcoming events
FY 2023 results
29 February 2024
On value traded of Ā£460,000
177p GBP equivalent share price
The LSE line is a 20% discount. Note also that the official FX rate is now more or less in line with the parallel rate, so this is genuine discount.
Well itās just shy of 2 weeks before the updates due, imo the big share movements at the end of the day are positions getting ready for the conformation of the deal going ahead. Iām hoping itās a strait forward thing as there has been soo many twits and turns, is it a possibility that the asset may also be bagged for next to nothing ? Considering the amount of oil that all ready been accumilated. Nice find about the tax laws changing makes it more attractive then it is already. As always G L all regards H.
One thing that is rarely talked about, but probably equals 30-50p in a DCF, is that new PIA tax regime (that Seplat already applied for) works out as seen in the earlier drafts of the proposal. Probably Nigerian speed on this subject as well, but as it's not priced in a see it as a bonus.
Link: https://i.imgur.com/d8rdYZC.png
Hard to know Trek,not quiet sure how the Nigerian listed and London listed shares interact regarding settlement etc.
Anyway that's the largest buy I can remember here.Surely the Exxon deal has to complete this month,hopefully not to many extra 'Christmas Party Funds' being requested in return for signatures.
I donāt understand these big trades here. Another for Ā£2m today. Above mid so likely a buy but where is the float for that. If I run dummy sells it goes NT and likewise for dummy buys. Yet trades for +Ā£500k just pop up out of the blue!
Trek
We all hoping ST ,just a v long corner!
This is going at Nigerian pace. Still, must be just around the corner!
I think we could get an announcement and a prospectus pretty soon. They must have had time to set the bones out by now if as we had been told that it was just waiting for BoDās to communicate the political decisions.
Usual caveats
Trek
Wow, +200 000 shares at 143-145p in short notice. Someone wants in, and wants to come in a hurry.
Results are expected around 26th Feb, three weeks to go! It should be very interesting reading. As a minimum, I would expect a confirmation that the acquisition is almost formalized/locally approved with minor formalities remaining.
There are also other catalysts here which should bode well, such as a stable currency as SeaTank mentioned below, ANOH plant and third party pipeline start-ups. One thing that I think will add a lot of hidden value here will be the Exxon staff that will get transferred over as part of the acquisition. Exxon has a history of recruiting the very best. Fingers crossed!
I think if a minimum volume is not breached according to exchange rules the share price reverts to the opening level, so the last few days it has been closing flat
The big news this past few days has been the exchange rate, which now trades in line with the black market rate. The FX demand backlog has almost been cleared. This has been almost ten years in waiting. Terrific news for Nigeria. FDI and portfolio flows should start to return. It's such a big policy delivery, the MPNU sign off pales in comparison.
Limit up +9% in Lagos yesterday, but tanked -5% in UK. Hmmm
We must be extremely close to all being revealed. I'm very very keen to see this Prospectus.
Looks like we're almost there, only days away!
"The $1.3 billion sale divestment of ExxonMobil asset to Seplat is also 98 per cent completed, and would be finalised in the coming days, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has said."
guardian.ng/news/1-3b-exxonmobil-seplat-divestment-98-completed/
Up another 10% today !!!
Up over 8% in Nigeria today.
Shares in Nigeria priced equivalent to GBP 228p.
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/summary?s=SEPLAT:LAG