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The research note is here on Seplat's website: https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/q1cgd5dp/seplat-energy-valuation-catalysts.pdf
Go ahead sir
Hi SeplatWinner,
Are you happy for me to share this file with others?
Thanks,
Ben
Seplatwinner; yes nice to see that report albeit I didn't see anything in its 40+ pages that our very own 'analyst' here hasn't previously highlighted, in about 3 posts......
Affirmation of posters belief, understanding, patience here is always welcome though! Thanks for posting.
Finally an analyst understanding what a real game-changer ANOH is:
ANOH should add over US$50m to Upstream gross profit and
generate operating cash flow of over US$70m. In addition, we forecast a
dividend to Seplat from the AGPC JV of US$12m in 2025 rising to over
US$80m by the end of the decade. Overall, we estimate ANOH will add up to
cUS$100m pa in additional operating cash flow to the group from 2026 rising
to cUS$150m towards the end of the decade.
Looks like er are heading into next year before we get any news regarding the deal
Here's a link to the full (+40 pages) research note on Seplat indicating +90% upside excl. of MPNU acquisition.
https://fromsmash.com/Seplat-Energy
Enjoy!
A pleasant lead in to the broker note released today.
Nigeria’s leading independent energy company We believe Seplat has multiple catalysts for value uplift which remain poorly understood despite the share price outperformance this year. Based on new modelling, we provide detailed insights into these catalysts. Most certain are improved operational reliability and the start-up of the ANOH gas project. Completion of the MPNU acquisition and conversion to the new PIA terms could be transformative while enhanced corporate governance and the improved outlook for Nigeria add supportive context. Seplat is on a discount rating to peers and on compelling forward valuation multiples with upside of 32%-91% to our initial NAV estimates, excluding the potential transformational value from the MPNU and PIA uplifts.
Stocks in Nigeria hit an all time high according to Trading Economics today
Theres has been a big a big swing in sentiment since yesterday re the Fed announcement so im back in at £1.2815 however this is remains my only oil share gla
O&G Company of the year….
https://leadership.ng/leadership-awards-seplat-energy-plc-is-oil-gas-company-of-the-year-2023/
Trek
Sorry posted earlier while editing by accident. Changed from tablet to phone now hopefully better now ;)
Meant to say, rise in NGX doesn't mean Nigeria is booming, but imo reforms including free float of Naira and merging official and parallel exchange rates windows will be a good thing. Also, Nigeria doing LNG deals, privatising NNPC, refining more oil in Nigeria instead of exporting crude might help Seplat. First crude going to Dangote:
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120723-first-crude-supply-cargo-en-route-to-nigerias-giant-dangote-refinery
I don't know how an IPO of NNPC would work. Government claimed NNPC 80% ready for IPO. But it does seem to me that instead of interfering with sale of MPNU, it'd fit better with government strategy if NNPC were selling shallow water assets to Seplat instead of trying to buy.
On the LSE/NGX difference, it's obviously a liquidity problem when you have different prices for same share over a LONG time. I don't see Nigerian investors knowing more Eg see Nairaland discussions:
https://www.nairaland.com/search?q=seplat&board=81
Also see limited choices in Nigeria for investors and amongst that Seplat has high a profile. Eg I've seen clips of Seplat on Nigerian TV. And ordinary people in Nigeria know ANOH is coming. In London, Seplat gets ignored. However, Seplat should take opportunity with increased size (post mpnu) to up their profile i think.
I think this is the 5th or 6th time Tom has "sold out last week" and whenever the stock recovered "went back a couple of days ago".
Not confident it's true, nor very confident that type of irrational trading makes any money to talk about.
Brent is oversold, buying opportunity imo. Saudis and Russia need $85 oil.
My comment was about the NGX market which is up 40% this year. Thats not because they know more or whatever. Anyway, I think market reforms including free float of Naira (which has led to devaluation) will turn out to be good thing by Tmean Nigeria is boomingTinubu reforms in Nigeria led to naira devaluation. Sepla
Mmm dare I say it, a small tree shake before some good news, I’ve seen it before them mms love a bit of scare mongering. T.O.D. good to see your still around. Bearing in mind the quite dramatic drop in oil price his is holding up very well. Patients still a must here, as December moves on if there is a flicker of news be sure the sp will let us know. GL all regards H.
27th July i sold at 1.41 put that in your diary ncb
Yes but you only talking a few pence difference so whats the big deal.Anyway i could lose out if the deal is struck it works both ways.
Tom111
Just like you sold out at 140 ish earlier in the year.
Very convenient to post sells at a later date.
A 33% correlation aka Seplat and Brent is highly significant especially given Seplat’s earnings dependency on oil while the black market rate gives a share price of 155p … where a 20% premium about right from memory.
The share has held up well … but looking around, I’m not tempted yet.
The SEPL share price has a very low correlation with Brent, for those interested. I've pointed this out many times previously. In my view, so long as Brent stays >$60-65, by far the primary drivers of this share will be everything else other than Brent.
Sold yesterday that me out of all oilies now just dont like the sector atm.Gla
"there has been the SAME discount for ENTIRE two years"
That's objectively not true: the premium (converted to GBP) is the highest on record and I've benchmarked several years back. Link: https://i.imgur.com/1PJ3CWB.png
Todays trading of 2310 equals 2.29 GBP. The parallel market, which has always existed, is lower bit still a hefty premium.
I don't mind if anyone here doesn't invest in the shares - that's totally fine. However, I would appreciate a standard on the board where everyone at least stick to the facts. Bless.
Someone has just dumped some shares. Quite a drop!