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Time for the buybacks to start hoovering up some of today cheap shares.
NWG share sale on hold for now as Gov looking for a much higher price to exit remaining shares and currently will be fully focused on the General Election...
Never really understand how this would have improved the SP. Why invest in NWG now if around the corner you can get a 10% discount? Surely the SP would just drift down to the offer price?
Porky
Like you, if there’s not enough interest they won't do it.
I originally thought they would launch this at the same time as the British ISA but i still think this retail offer will happen, lets face it the new labour gov will need to get its hands on as much cash as they can, the till is empty and this is low hanging fruit to get some quick cash in.
Tell Sid 2, lets face it will be all new and exciting to next gen who were not around the first time. I will likely chuck £10k in for each of my adult children in their long term savings but i cant see me taking a large position myself. 1 share for 10 is not much of an incentive really is it. SP has rallied from £1.75 to £3+ already over the last year, so it would take more than a 10% discount to excite me, needs to be a £2 offer which is unlikely?
Now if they were to offer this in a tax free wrapper, give it ISA status in its own right then that would make it more interesting but if all i'm doing is effectively buying at these prices but gaining extra 1 share for 10 it doesn't feel that worth it to me.
Even Labour are not that daft. NWG will get their 15% cake to eat benefiting all shareholders while the rest will be dripfed on to the market in 1% batches as they have been doing very successfully.
Thanks Mike. Not sure what next for NWG. Will current rate of HMG divestment continue before/beyond election ? Before maybe but afterwards ? Based on recent electoral history, HMG may end up retaining a sizeable stake for next 13 years !
Hi Dinoken,
Bloomberg are reporting that the planned retail offer has been cancelled
Election 4th July. Anyone any views on whether the promised Retail Offer will now take place ? IMO it wont. Will Labour stop further divestment of HMG stake ? IMO it will. What next for sp ?
Indeed, a shared buyback and subsequent cancellation happened yesterday (https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/natwest-group-executes-share-buyback-plan-3)
Likely to continue, so the number of shares will drop.
"... a scenario in their mind ..."
If, as rumoured, HMG give you one free share for every 10 you buy then only a dunce wouldn't recognise the opportunity to sell and get 11 shares for the price of 10 and think that the share price won't fall as PIs offload to generate cash to buy into the share offer. But each to their own.
I don't expect the price fall just because I've sold. I think if HMG does proceed with this daft plan then the share price will fall in the interim. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. My money isn't sitting on the sidelines waiting for the sp to fall. It's been reinvested in higher yielding shares. If the share price does fall I might consider buying back in but I won't lose any sleep. Whilst NWG has been falling back in recent days LLOY has been trundling forward. If nothing else, HMG's (as yet) undisclosed proposals create uncertainty and shares don't tend to thrive on uncertainty. If this was the only way that HMG could offload its shares then I might be more sympathetic but I have no sympathy for an ideologically driven publicity stunt that's unlikely to have any impact on the outcome of the next election.
It's my view that NWG's current shareholders would be better served by the shares being sold to NWG for cancellation (it would increase the EPS and dividend yield, even if NWG didn't increase the dividend cash pool). Introducing a middleman is (i.e. "Sid") rarely, if ever, more financially efficient. My long term view of NWG hasn't changed but by short term view has; I think "Sid" will be bad news for the share price in the short term.
Like Trots I have just realised a nice profit here, probably a bit too soon to sell what with the economy picking up but a profit is a profit
Just because you have sold don't expect the price to fall just for you, and the recent highs of 328.40 was only recently hit and from that point you can say NWG has pulled back about 6% over the last 3 to 4 days... That maybe enough for some and the uptrend may continue from here. Would not surprise me if the next few day are closed out in a positive fashion supported with the buybacks, cpi figures and the general uptrend... IMO
Just because you have sold don't expect the price to fall just for you, and the recent highs of 328.40 was only recently hit and from that point you can say NWG has pulled back about 6% over the last 3 to 4 days... That maybe enough for some and the uptrend may continue from here. Would not surprise me if the next few day are closed out in a positive fashion supported with the buybacks, cpi figures and the general uptrend... IMO
Stunned at how animated someone can get about a scenario that is in their own mind....
I've have banked a nice profit and will watch what develops. I originally bought back in Feb 2021 but sold before the special dividend and subsequent share consolidation in August 2022 and then bought back afterwards (making a c5% profit on the turn in the process) and have now banked a 28% profit.
I may be wrong but I can see NWG falling by c5%-10% if HMG proceeds in mid-June as has been rumoured; markets have a habit of overreacting to such news (in part because the MMs will look to milk it) and repenting at their leisure. I think there's the possibility of a good arbitrage opportunity if HMG does proceed on the rumoured terms, even if you don't participate in the offer. Whether I'll buy back in remains to be seen; I've taken my profits and pivoted to (currently) better yielding shares. Also, June is not usually a good month (the old adage, sell in May and come back in September) and, if the NWG price does fall, it could flounder around for a few months before recovering (depending on how much of the free float is hoovered up by institutions and/or NWG purchasing in the market).
As I say, I think it's a publicity stunt by the Conservatives before the next election and the short term interests of existing shareholders would, I think, have been better served by HMG selling the shares direct to NWG for cancellation. Not only that, I think the publicity stunt will fall flat and have little, or no, influence on how people vote at the next election. If HMG sees sense and does not proceed as rumoured then "my bet" will have, at least in part, failed (as I say I've pivoted into better yielding shares so its not a complete loss but I might miss out on some further capital growth here).
TT
You might find that a lot of investors have a much lower buy in price and are happy holding and snapping up a good dividend.
Based on the number of posts in recent days, it would appear that I'm not the only one who has sold out in the expectation that any HMG sell-off in mid-June is likely to dent the share price, at least in the short term.
I'd imagine a number of existing private investors in NWG will be looking at this and thinking why continue to hold 10 shares when in the not too distant future I might be able to effectively get 11 shares for the price of 10. Selling shares to Sid is just a publicity stunt by the Conservatives and NWG's existing shareholders are likely to bear the cost. It will also increase the free float, which will probably result in the share price will meandering until its been absorbed by longer term investors. If NWG intervenes to try and bolster the share price by making on-market purchases, it will just make it all the more ludicrous. Cut out the middleman and just sell direct FFS!
Gov may continue to sell some of it's holding in a uptrend as the banks are doing really well in the current environment... Sticking to the current plan of offloading small amounts in an uptrend may save Gov from offering a discount to private buyers.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/article/2024/may/16/chancellor-ditch-natwest-retail-share-offer-not-needed
What's NWG shareprice doing today, ending what I thought this morning was a good week so far and it has given up all of this weeks gains in 1 day, very strange looks like maybe some profit takers or more Gov interference... Oh well let's hope for a better week next week if the markets can hold up that long. 🤞
Onelongrunner, many thanks. I am a long cyclist!! Good weather to be out and about. JJ
I looked at the NatWest Investor Relations and no mention of HMG sell off. If anyone has any reliable detail then please show me where to look. JJ
Interesting news, who are the letters being sent to?