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Dockerman, the risk/reward is good, hence why I'm invested. But it's by no means a certainty. But thinking sensibly, we have to assume Velociraptor will disappoint as the odds are clearly against us. So for me this is still about Heron and the LP. And I don't think that's a done deal, despite what WOS might think.
Probabilities based on LP at 90%, Velociraptor success 20%:
1. LP lands and raptor is a success? 20-30p, possibly more if it's good quality oil, upper end of estimates volume wise etc
18% Chance
2. No LP and raptor is success? 10-20p
2% Chance
3. LP lands and raptor is a duster? 12-15p
72% Chance
4. No LP and raptor is a duster? Initially 2-3p but eventually drifting to sub 2p with our hopes left on the renewables adventure.
8% Chance
If you look at the probabilities of each scenario then at 4p this is a very good bet!
1. LP lands and raptor is a success? 20-30p, possibly more if it's good quality oil, upper end of estimates volume wise etc
2. No LP and raptor is success? 10-20p
3. LP lands and raptor is a duster? 12-15p
4. No LP and raptor is a duster? Initially 2-3p but eventually drifting to sub 2p with our hopes left on the renewables adventure.
Doc, what do you think the price will be in the following scenarios:
1. LP lands and raptor is a success?
2. No LP and raptor is success?
3. LP lands and raptor is a duster?
4. No LP and raptor is a duster?
Why? have you inspected his sleeve??
Unfortunately Mr Buck has nothing 'up his sleeve'.
He has an oil man's nose and seismic date for the Raptor Trend and he has his own intuition and thoughts on what he's been told by the Mongolian Politicians which he may, or may not, have passed onto us in his various communications.
The dice are rolling and will land where they land.
Good luck everyone who's in for the drill result and the eventual 'safety net' of the Heron Special Purpose certification.
Not sure how relevant, but shows issues, such as delegating licencing decisions, moving away from the need for government sanction.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid03AmKZbF12Dk67MAM5vpKEkbQwxGb9nYgn16reYHeetasyfwpxMrynWhE2MEdjNQhl&id=100067633403423
Doc, re possible fall in sp if we had bad news, I've been wondering about the 4.80 sp to staff share scheme, it was confident, it makes me think Mr Buck has something up his sleeve 😉💰🚀
Big bench, 100%!
We all know Heron is pivotal, but the raptor trend is transformational
GLA
Iamrich, let's assume Velociraptor fails (do you at least acknowledge that statistically this is more likely to fail than succeed?) and the LP doesn't arrive until after the Velociraptor results, do you really think the SP will be 5p+?
Just need RNS saying early oil shows etc etc…. :-)
…to those who piled in during the dip….. 4.3 finish today my guess.
And I don't think velociraptor has even been proved in or will be until we get LP, the major issue here is the LP and with out it the market doesn't have confidence in MATD and MG, once LP sorted and think it will al reflect the share price,
Doc assume you sold out, and need the share price to come down again,
Too close to LP news now I don't think it will fall rather climb back up towards 5p ish until LP news,
That would be nice. But traders might look at this and think it’s likely Velociraptor will fail (80% chance of this) at which point IF the LP still hasn’t arrived the SP will probably tank to 2-3p. Then buy in and hope LP arrives and make a stack of cash.
Let's hope for a double whammy LP lands and we get Velociraptor good news,
Day 10 of drilling V1
Around 500metres down, exciting times..
Couldn’t wait to get this on the way, now we are a third of the way there!
GLA
Better than reading your negative tripe
Yes I expect also 300%, 400%, 500% price increase next couple if week with Cabinet signing off Special Certification & WITHOUT V1.
WITH Velociraptor Multiple of Multiple!!
Mr Surf
They will develop through Production Revenue, Offtake & Partnership (Do research & you will see but again if you do not us your money lol)
Also from RNS 20th June 2023 "the current cash balance is sufficient to continue operations until AT LEAST July 2024". Believe it not again up to you but maybe you better to stay out yess? ;)
WOS - same old repetitive hoot, different day.
Land law and use has started to be discussed at cabinet meetings, I can see afte these discussions if the LP goes to cabinet will be easily signed off,
It's looking good and quite possible this is triggered by land and development as the LP is about to be submitted so they need to clear up land use and law
Bloomberg link
https://fb.watch/lkZfYLl9BA/
Like I said, the overall direction of travel, regarding creating favourable conditions for foreign investment, looks very positive, which gives me hope that the cabinet will also look favourably on PMs SPC request.
Govt not got. Proof reading don't seem to help, it still alters words