Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Day 10 of drilling V1
Around 500metres down, exciting times..
Couldn’t wait to get this on the way, now we are a third of the way there!
GLA
Let's hope for a double whammy LP lands and we get Velociraptor good news,
That would be nice. But traders might look at this and think it’s likely Velociraptor will fail (80% chance of this) at which point IF the LP still hasn’t arrived the SP will probably tank to 2-3p. Then buy in and hope LP arrives and make a stack of cash.
Doc assume you sold out, and need the share price to come down again,
Too close to LP news now I don't think it will fall rather climb back up towards 5p ish until LP news,
And I don't think velociraptor has even been proved in or will be until we get LP, the major issue here is the LP and with out it the market doesn't have confidence in MATD and MG, once LP sorted and think it will al reflect the share price,
Just need RNS saying early oil shows etc etc…. :-)
Iamrich, let's assume Velociraptor fails (do you at least acknowledge that statistically this is more likely to fail than succeed?) and the LP doesn't arrive until after the Velociraptor results, do you really think the SP will be 5p+?
Big bench, 100%!
We all know Heron is pivotal, but the raptor trend is transformational
GLA
Doc, re possible fall in sp if we had bad news, I've been wondering about the 4.80 sp to staff share scheme, it was confident, it makes me think Mr Buck has something up his sleeve 😉💰🚀
Unfortunately Mr Buck has nothing 'up his sleeve'.
He has an oil man's nose and seismic date for the Raptor Trend and he has his own intuition and thoughts on what he's been told by the Mongolian Politicians which he may, or may not, have passed onto us in his various communications.
The dice are rolling and will land where they land.
Good luck everyone who's in for the drill result and the eventual 'safety net' of the Heron Special Purpose certification.
Why? have you inspected his sleeve??
Doc, what do you think the price will be in the following scenarios:
1. LP lands and raptor is a success?
2. No LP and raptor is success?
3. LP lands and raptor is a duster?
4. No LP and raptor is a duster?
1. LP lands and raptor is a success? 20-30p, possibly more if it's good quality oil, upper end of estimates volume wise etc
2. No LP and raptor is success? 10-20p
3. LP lands and raptor is a duster? 12-15p
4. No LP and raptor is a duster? Initially 2-3p but eventually drifting to sub 2p with our hopes left on the renewables adventure.
If you look at the probabilities of each scenario then at 4p this is a very good bet!
Probabilities based on LP at 90%, Velociraptor success 20%:
1. LP lands and raptor is a success? 20-30p, possibly more if it's good quality oil, upper end of estimates volume wise etc
18% Chance
2. No LP and raptor is success? 10-20p
2% Chance
3. LP lands and raptor is a duster? 12-15p
72% Chance
4. No LP and raptor is a duster? Initially 2-3p but eventually drifting to sub 2p with our hopes left on the renewables adventure.
8% Chance
Dockerman, the risk/reward is good, hence why I'm invested. But it's by no means a certainty. But thinking sensibly, we have to assume Velociraptor will disappoint as the odds are clearly against us. So for me this is still about Heron and the LP. And I don't think that's a done deal, despite what WOS might think.
Just to qualify, 90% chance of LP is my own figure. Could be more....could be a lot less.
Wigster, re-run those numbers with LP at 66.6%.
I.e. twice as likely as not...
Probabilities based on LP at 66%, Velociraptor success 20%:
1. LP lands and raptor is a success? 20-30p, possibly more if it's good quality oil, upper end of estimates volume wise etc
13.4% Chance
2. No LP and raptor is success? 10-20p
6.6% Chance
3. LP lands and raptor is a duster? 12-15p
53.6% Chance
4. No LP and raptor is a duster? Initially 2-3p but eventually drifting to sub 2p with our hopes left on the renewables adventure.
26.4% Chance
LP is coming 💯 when no one knows but we can guess from the RNS and soon as it gets submitted to cabinet, for me there's no risk anymore, it will happen
Matd doing alot of work with MG plus MG needs succes stories for foreign investors
MG now have a joint company with matd probably IOM visit
Land development done all their own on certification and passed on to ministerys only for comment then to cabinet to sign off on a project of national importance
Now if this is a risky bet then I don't know what else is safe on AIM markets
Its coming soon. Just more patience required
https://mrpam.gov.mn/news/2572/?fbclid=IwAR2vJQRBoQfOFo36oE4MrPPj2pko6Xmd_BT-vp7Vl4UWR2xWygl4gwgzTw8
Translation
An extended meeting of the Mineral Resources Professional Council was held

The expanded session of the Professional Council of Mineral Resources No. STR/23-03 was held on June 22, 2023 in the Conference Hall of the Mineral and Oil Department.
At the meeting, the feasibility study (detail) of the underground leaching mining and processing plant of Zövch-Ovoo and Dulam-Uul uranium deposits located in Ulaanbadrak sum area of Dornogovi Province was discussed.
The management and experts of the contractor Mining Institute and the client French-Mongolian joint company "Badrah-Energy" participated in the meeting and presented the Feasibility Study to the members of the Professional Council of Mineral Resources.

On this occasion, the chairman of the AMGTG, L. Bayarmandal, made 13 recommendations and presented the reviews of experts. Also, the members of the Professional Council of Mineral Resources asked questions related to the feasibility study, discussed opinions and criticisms, and received clarifications from the customers and contractors.
Thus, the members discussed the issue, partially accepted the feasibility study, and considered it necessary to refine and present the economic calculation and evaluation, and the extended session ended.
The participants emphasized that the above project will be considered as the largest economic development after Oyutolgoi. With the implementation of the project, more than 800 direct jobs and 800 indirect jobs will be created in Mongolia, and it is estimated that 2.1 billion US dollars in taxes will be collected in the state budget.
Doc just be honest that you sold out and commenting on negative only, it's seems you are angling constantly on how to take the share price down
Up to you fella but we can read and understand what's going on,
Velociraptor not even priced in no one cares until LP lands or velociraptor actually strikes, we all know it's. 1-5 chance so not gambling on that but if good then expect double whammy
Too good to be out right now