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Started: moniman, 19 May 2024 19:44
Last post: Realist1, 20 May 2024 21:25
And despite all of this greatness, we have the highest taxes since WW2. If you look at what is coming, it can only get worse.
Https://www.cityam.com/if-you-look-past-the-headlines-london-is-charging-ahead/
More up to date I would suggest.
Started: NickRubens, 8 May 2024 11:45
Last post: Realist1, 11 May 2024 15:15
Not moving up with the broader market, that's for sure.
Stop complaining it's a buying opportunity will be back above 225 shortly and if it goes to 130 Buy more.
So Graham Stapleton and his mobile phone chums have been running Halfords for six years. Any thoughts on how well he is doing and if he is earning his £1m comp package? I wonder what long term investors think.
Looks like this SP is stuck around this level until the finals, unless some corporate activity emerges from somewhere?
Last post: Argylerich, 22 Apr 2024 10:43
Worldquant still reducing, now at 0.77 from peak 1.31%. SP still fairly supressed (retail news?). Total declared shorts now at 2.96%
Halfords has fallen over every main time period. 1d, 5d, 1m, 6m, ytd, 1y, 5y, and since 2004. Is it possible that they need a different management team?
Considering Norges Bank have also reduced their position below 3% the share price is holding up fairly well.
Now in 10 th most shorted stock.
Worldquant reduce a tad but JP Morgan keep up the sellside pressure increasing their short to 0.67%. Total declared shorts now at 3.44%
Started: BTFATH1, 7 Apr 2024 21:47
Last post: BTFATH1, 12 Apr 2024 09:56
Fair point about the merger with Redde but that still valued Halfords at least twice the current market cap.
This is a very sound business with a good balance sheet. The auto centres side is booming and Spring has sprung which will spur on bike sales and car cleaning products. £2.50 is a conservative estimation of where we should sit today and not £1.55.
"Redde tables at 1.4 billion pound bid which the Halfords board said significantly undervalued their company".
You are using the merged market cap of two companies (Halfords and Redde) to extrapolate a value for one of them (Halfords). Halfords has a market cap of £343m because that's what the market currently thinks it is worth. Note that HFD's market cap is less than 1/2 what it was 2 years ago. If you have low and falling margins in a tough sector this is what you get. Valuing a company on a possible future takeover is like buying lottery tickets and holing your breath.
This market cap is crazy for what this business has, I work in the automotive industry (corporate leasing sector) and 45% of all our service booking and maintenance bookings goes through Halfords.
Redde tables at 1.4 billion pound bid which the Halfords board said significantly undervalued their company.
I’ve taken a sizeable holding alongside Enquest.
This is a keeper and if/when a bid arrives it’s happy days.
Started: dadean, 11 Apr 2024 09:55
Last post: dadean, 11 Apr 2024 09:55
Well although I don't have time to write a detailed post, hfd is one I definitely got wrong, had some position in this since 2018 and while I got some multi bagger returns on covid purchases, overall the experience of holding has been dire... I'll need really look at what I got wrong with this one... Think my remaining position will be jettisoned shortly....
Started: DEBS1, 21 Mar 2024 16:50
Last post: DEBS1, 21 Mar 2024 16:50
Don't worry next week they will twist the market so they get their money back and more. Sadley the PI's don't stand a chance. Take care
In six years Graham Stapleton has been paid received something like £6m plus of salary, share options etc. He recruited his cronies from previous roles, and in that time the share price has been on a downward trajectory and underperformed against any reasonable benchmark. He has issued stock at high prices and continued to acquire new business and is now working out what to do. The market speaks.
These short sellers don't have all the answers either. According to the IG Group, 69% of their retail investor accounts lose money. Then there is this:
https://www.ft.com/content/dddd51c4-7c5b-4488-b935-6099788bbc89
JP Morgan shorts, Morgan Stanley buys. Who knows? Anyone's guess.
At this rate is will be in the list of the top 10 shorted stocks. I'm surprised the Chair and CEO and making new appointments. The div cover and op margin have halved. Scary stuff.
Worldquant single-handedly bringing down the SP, increasing their short to 1.31%. Total declared shorts now at 3.32%.
Started: Lowbar, 20 Mar 2024 13:28
Last post: Lowbar, 20 Mar 2024 13:28
Halfords would be a good fit for Sainsburys with argos selling similar products to halfords would take out a lot of distribution cost and then throw nectar in their as well.
Started: TSSZ, 6 Mar 2024 09:13
Last post: Pianista, 7 Mar 2024 15:16
If a takeover were to happen, my guess would be 240p.
I am hoping some info has leaked
Hopefully takeover bid at 250p that would be amazing
'Someone' is accumulating, Flat Footed LLC. The RNS was out a few days ago @ over 5%.
Hedgies vs Hedgies, interesting battle 🤓
Up 11% in a week from the overdone sell off, not bad and appears to be sustaining so perhaps 1.75 before results. Someone accumulating, perhaps but market isnt taking it too seriously otherwise I'd have expected to see a step up not the gradual rise, time will tell and we're definitely a potential takeover target with sharks on the hunt.
Weather has also changed and looks good for the rest of the month, above average temperatures, might spur people on to get ready for spring summer, new bike? Certainly seeing it here, a local touring campsite opened 1st March and it was a quarter full by the end of the first day and not all season pitches, bodes well.
Every day I say someone is accumulating shares, the question is why ?
And slowly but surely the SP continues up, meanwhile PI’s are thinking shall I buy or not
They can buy when it opens at 250p one day
Started: Steve077, 28 Feb 2024 08:35
Last post: Realist1, 7 Mar 2024 14:01
Not sure about the shorting but there were almost 14 million shares bought at 136 so someone is sitting on a healthy profit.
Now 3% shorted. In a list of the most heavily shorted stocks in the UK. Any idea why?
HFD looking very good
Could we have a break out today
One week on 163p
Steve077 post bottom of 137p was the low on RNS day recovered continually from there.
19% gain on that gamble 8 days on .
I did not go for it bought more Chariot that day at least that is 2% better.
Knowone Knows.
Did you buy Steve077 I see they fell to 137p at 11am .
Just looked at my holding here .
8/12/2015 paid 360p.
7/9/2015 paid 457p.
They had fallen from a second peak the reason first in the early June 2015 they hit 525p then in the August 561p.
After my buys early in July 2021 they recovered to 434p so did go above the top up.
Only in the main acc thankfully it appears .
Started: Doublingup, 28 Feb 2024 11:57
Last post: Fforestgwmp, 1 Mar 2024 17:13
If you're not happy with the company I suggest you get on yer bike.
Mary this Mary that - give it a rest Quickdip.
Anyone who invests based on anon posts on a BB is a fool.
Overall my approach works well for me and can carry losses when necessary but actively work out of an adverse position where possible.
Re SFOR - yes underwater there.
Mobico have traded into profit so content there as many carry losses.
All about a balance portfolio.
As regards HFDs traded 3 times over the last year and all successfully. Decided, for me the risk is to the downside unless a bid comes in but will reenter sub 140p and add on any further drops to 120/130p if it happens. If not I will wish the holders well.
My concern here is they have already flagged up they expect no improvement, even during their peak Easter trading. That is a red flag waving in front of everyone for now. I fell the move down was overdown but from 136 - to 154p I expect a retest to come.
Who knows really, not you or I but I avoided being caught here so that is a win for now.
Easy to be pleasant when others agree or disagree - it is a forum where all views are valid. Attack the message, not the poster.
Have a great weekend.
I do the exact opposite of what Mary says, she’s been bugging up S4 capital and mobico for months. Both have tanked. She hasn’t got a clue.
Well if it does Mary, I will be back.
As with previous announcements, there is a possibility that some of this profit downgrade relates to an acquisition. Hard to see how you get such a big fall in 4 weeks. Institutions don't like this sort of stuff.
TSSZ, we have been here many times before. All we need is some decent weather and a revised Tour de Yorkshire is back this year to stimulate bike sales. Best to be patient for now and look at other investments.
3 big buys just appeared, someone is loading up before making a takeover bid offer
FOMO news could be Monday morning
Started: CVB123, 1 Mar 2024 11:15
Last post: CVB123, 1 Mar 2024 11:15
I have taken a closer look at Halfords and noticed the dividend is not currently covered by the free cash flow generation. The business has also gone from net cash in 2022 to net debt. The guidance change is a real concern. How does management tell us FY PBT is £48-53m on 25 Jan, a month into Q4 trading and then suddenly revise guidance to £35-40m a month later on 28 Feb.
I’m not an expert but I don’t think February’s sales should have such a detrimental impact on the profits. Something doesn’t add up.
I think we will see the dividend cancelled by Halfords and that may be a better time to revisit the story. I stay on the sidelines for now cognisant that we have had M&A rumours on the name.
Started: Chrisbish, 29 Feb 2024 09:15
Last post: Slipperman55, 29 Feb 2024 10:14
If you look at the last 3 year history of director buys, there isn't much to be encouraged by!
I am always encouraged when I see Directors buying, over the last 6 months a number of them have reinvested their dividends back into the Company at much higher levels than today’s share price. The share price fall seems overdone to me. At these levels it may be a takeover target! At these prices there will be traders trying to make a quick buck, evidenced by the rebound in the share price yesterday afternoon, long term holders will I believe be rewarded over the coming months.
Started: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 16:37
Last post: BTFATH1, 28 Feb 2024 16:42
I sold at 148.5 as I could resist. In meetings Thursday and Friday so I’ll just stick to accumulating Enq shares as the short/medium term potential is massive.
HBR also looks good value, wishing you all the best.
147.10 UT. was gonna be 147 or 149. looks like they closed it at the low end.
Started: BTFATH1, 28 Feb 2024 16:31
Last post: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 16:36
BTFATH1 just bought some Harbour Energy just before the close. Oil price dropped to 78 WTI which is support area hopefully.
And I will keep on accumulating Enquest shares.
As they always say never regret taking a profit.
Gla
Started: petroinvestor, 28 Feb 2024 15:38
Last post: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 15:55
Im out. when the bid price was above the offer price it seems a no brainer to take profit. have stamp duty to pay if i want to buy back tho.
Big buyer will put in a takeover bid, but first they will buy as many as they can at the bargain price
Spiked we haven’t see anything yet, there is a big buyer in the background
Sellers in the background. starting to drop!
Started: xxxAccountant, 28 Feb 2024 14:22
Last post: Oldfortyniner, 28 Feb 2024 14:42
HL ok for me.
I can’t login - anyone else having the same issue?
Started: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 13:16
Last post: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 13:16
At 2.16%. potential for a short squeeze
Started: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 13:12
Last post: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 13:12
US inflation data out. this has potential to move markets.
Started: Dazgard123, 28 Feb 2024 12:52
Last post: HedgeHogarth, 28 Feb 2024 12:58
So true - many PIs will not have seen the news yet.
No idea what SP will do from now til close, but I would expect to see renewed selling tomorrow by way of a delayed reaction,
I wil take a look on Friday and make a decision whether to buy. It's a business I like a lot and would love to own some shares here. Their bike business needs a kick up the RRRs - but I like everything else they have been doing
Just some advice,wait for dust to settle before filling boots.... unofficial 3 day rule...lol
Started: BTFATH1, 28 Feb 2024 12:57
Last post: BTFATH1, 28 Feb 2024 12:57
Million which won’t actually be a drop once spring/summer arrives - you just have to laugh the market is completely irrational
Started: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 12:52
Last post: downbutnotout, 28 Feb 2024 12:52
Started: InchingCloser, 28 Feb 2024 12:39
Last post: InchingCloser, 28 Feb 2024 12:39
This is well underpriced following the market over-reaction. A market correction will happen very soon, just make sure you don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity.
Onwards and upwards
Started: BTFATH1, 28 Feb 2024 11:44
Last post: BTFATH1, 28 Feb 2024 11:44
Took 7,500 shares at 1.37 this is a reduction of 10-15 million gross profit for goodness sake.
I work in the corporate automotive sector and all lease companies are increasing their reliance on Halfords instead of the franchised dealers who are providing horrrendous levels of service and extortionate labour and parts rates..
This will be back over 1.80 in no time.