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Weak sterling, strong dollar, plus there are lots of stupid single entities out there, but the market by definition is not stupid.. Another datapoint, the Reddit IPO. Coming this week at valuation of about $5 -$5.5bn. Their last funding round in 2021 was a valuation of $10bn. The magic 50% discount AGAIN and it doesnt get more current than that. In 2021 pre Covid, the private market was valuing things at twice the level the public market wants to pay and you are seeing that play out in Molten and they typically play in cos that are much smaller than Reddit so justifying a 60% discount.
If the market is the world's best fundamental analyst why are so many UK companies getting swooped up at large premiums to their SPs?
The value they were holding Perkbox at sounded fairly accurate.
The Telegraph article about Triple Point referenced Molten's discount as 54% last year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/08/revolut-investor-slashes-fintech-valuation-5bn/#:~:text=US%20tech%20investor%20TriplePoint%20Venture,%2433bn%20at%20its%20peak.
That is actually an error as MV cut it by 40%, not 54%. But saying that they never valued it internally at 33bn as they thought it was way too frothy.
I think when Revolut raised at 33bn MV actually realised part of their Revolut investment. I saw it on a presentation slide listing successful exits.
And they have recently bought some back as it's one of the holdings in the Seedcamp fund they recently bought.
Time and time again, market proves itself as worlds best fundamental analyst. If you take a contra view it needs to be based on hard numbers not wild speculation. Graphore is the next test of Moltens valuation policies if indeed it does find a buyer. Until then nobody has the hard data other than the accounts as at Sept last year.
You cant possibly know that Re Revolut. All we know is they have between 0.001% and 5% and its valued at £55M. You tell me their shareholding and then its easy to work out their valuation but unless you know their shareholding you are speculating. On Graphore, if Molten own the middle of the range they will have a write down of half their valuation. The fair question then is does this aggressive valuation policy apply more generally? thats what market thinks currently and so you 60% plus discount falls to 10-15%. Thats the issue Molten face, plain and simple. Market doesnt believe their current valuations and if they write off £12-13M further, market is proved right.
Revolut is held by Molten at a value based on market cap of about 16bn dollars.
The US VC Triple Point dropped it down on their books last week from 28bn to 23bn.
So MV is showing signs of prudent valuations.
Apologies Senator you are right.
I think I had in mind they had knocked it down again by about £10m
Or 4 large hatched chickens who are noisy and annoying all the neighbours.
Etc etc. Graphcore on the books for 21m and this is well down on peak of 108m which was never calibrated to Graphcore peak in the first place. So if company worth 500m and not the 2.5bn peak we are in for an nice upgrade, 20m or so.
This extreme volatility frustrating. I put my money here because I thought store of value. What better store of value than a good cross section of all new tech across UK/EU during a period in history when tech will be truly disruptive. I am not so sure big 4 tech really so immune to a big retrace. Lot’s of regulatory scenarios that can kill the golden goose for the top 4. Whole are of real ownership of personal data unresolved. They have been getting a regulatory free ride for a long time.
UK Banks have not moved SP in nominal terms for 12 years. New regulations after the financial crisis changed the long term profitability permanently. Watch the pen as well as the market
Is it not better to have 1000 small eggs waiting to hatch that 4 big eggs that someone might step on.
I massively underestimated volatility based on sentiment. I thought we would behave much like the locked trusts for unlisted tech but with the benefits of the retail wrapper and thus ability to buy and sell quickly. More fool me.
Last set of accounts available tell us their stake valued at £21.3M not £10M. That stake cost them £24M. We also know they own between 0.1-5%, dont know the precise figure. If they own 5%, the £400m is ok, if they own 2.5% they will have a £12-13M writeoff and if they own 1% they face an 80% write off. Those are the facts based on what is in the half year accounts of Molten.
I have read no news on nay core company that indicates a NAV decrease.
Aiven on the books for 83m and no reason this has gone backwards.
Thought machine on the books for 99., all good news.
Coachhub 92m and going well.
Bought more....fully back in now. Thank you sellers
By my calcs the value of Graphcore floated by the recent telegraph article (based on a rumored sale) is significantly above what we have it on our books for and crystalis have written up the value of their holding on that basis. SO if anything Graphcore will not be a drag on our NAV/share at year end and may even be a modest help.
Thanks for that, must have been thinking of some older accounts. So if audit require a full write down not too far to go then.
Graphcore is already written down to £10m, which is unlikely to present a problem.
Thin volume, this has been controlled by the bots for some time, so not too concerned just adding in the drops, although I expect the accounts will not look too happy with any Graphcore write down.
I suppose forward partner shareholders with first chance to cash out perhaps for a long time.
even if we have big buyers in the background they might hang back and let the do fall so they create jitters and thus a better price.
anyhow frustrating but fundamentals and time on our side. just cant say when sustainable sp lift starts
The shareholders of Forward I mean
The Forward Partners got their Molten shares available to trade so may be selling?
Why the huge 7% fall today?
And I wish the market had some of your confidence Steph
You keep saying that you expect it to reach new highs soon at over £11
Can I have a pint of whatever you are on?
At this rate of decline I will be quite happy with it reaching £3
“The deal values Perkbox modestly above its Group holding value”
Any and all confirmations that our NAV calculations are accurate for the market should be most helpful. NO justification for a 2/3rds discount.
I’ve always posted that a 1/3rd discount to NAV/share (or about 5 quid) maybe sensible in this jittery market.
Even that “modest” discount should melt away quickly once the market shows solid signs of stabilization and the robust organic maturing of the portfolio can finally result in NAV/share upgrades. Once that process starts might be pretty quick.
Bought half back just now after selling at 269. Looks like the stars are slowly aligning for this one.
Look forward to Investor Presentation on Forward Partners later today
RNS today. Gently encouraging I’d say. A non-core holding but sold at a small premium to NAV in the books. And not at a 66% discount…
Thanks for the personal history. 1/6 not bad in these things.
I think we have been oversold and at some point it will correct itself -perhaps suddenly. Just needs a few sales or funding rounds of a representative sample of core portfolio and confidence will return in the NAV/share calculations. I keep checking for Graphcore news on sale.
Mention is todays Times. Seems that GROW has a 20% stake. Might be behind paywall
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/perkbox-and-vivup-sales-reap-millions-for-founders-htz2zw7xd