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Great i love contrarian postings.
you never know but i think we are on the cusp of a sustainably SP recovery not a new record breaking 8 year low. ive laid put my rational in many postings. good luck all. if you ate more that 50% confident of a new dip why not short snd make money off that?
Way too soon to buy, i expect it to go below 200 in the short term
I highly doubt we will be anything near this low level next year. unique opportunity to level down for me.
I also have a small holding in Tern, which is also way down on my entry price.
Tern seems to be sparking up with some good news. Up 100% in a couple of weeks (from ATL).
I'd love to see GROW do the same.
For younger son in his SIPP
It's aggressive for a low volume share. Other sellers were a bit more sensitive.
Additionally they did not sell aggressively, they went from 6.9M shares to 4.9M shares. 2m shares at £2odd is nothing to AVI, couple of million quid. Its peanuts, means nothing. AVI has a market cap of £1bn. Im sure Bauemfreund's PA is authorised to handle decesions of that size.
Yes 4.9M shares is 2.6% as of their last report and as you say they are under 3% so NOBODY knows until the AVI semi is released where they are now. YOU SAID, they are "all out, confirmed by recent RNS". The recent report says they are at 2.6%. It does NOT SAY they are out. You dont know and I dont know what they did since then. As I said, stop guessing and spreading guesses as facts, deal in facts. The last fact is 4.7m shares or 2.6%, where they have gone from there is maybe done nothing since or are somewhere between 0 and 2.999%. NOBODY knows.
They went under 3% so don't need to report further sales. They sold down very aggressively to get down below 3%.
Rubbish, last report from AVI was 6/3/24 4.9m shares. FACT, there is no debate about that. You are just making rubbish up.
AVI built up a position when the SP dipped below 200. It felt like a show of confidence at the time.
They are all out confirmed by a recent RNS
Https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/softbank-considers-investment-or-partnership-with-openai-ft-1.1972354
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/07/pensions-giant-create-uk-superfund-boost-jeremy-hunt/
Medium term we are in good shape. GROW as a well diversified trust in unlisted growth companies in the tech sector by geography, sector and pipeline position is in pole position to benefit. Certainly a good choice for 1/3rd of my ISA and very likely to significantly outperform the market over the next 20 years.
Short term who knows. I think we already have plenty of evidence we should be at at an SP of 2/3rds NAV/share not 1/3rd with great prospects to go up sharply from 2/3rds as a base. However that evidence has been there for a year so maybe massive underpricing can last a year longer?? We shall see.
Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/weekend-analysis-private-equity-fundraising-funds-return
No evidence at all of a declining market so our organic sales growth within our portfolio companies should result in NAV/share upgrades. I hope enough to overwhelm the mild 2’nd half dilution and first half losses.
There was a small mention in this weeks copy of Investors Chronicle. In the main the article (P32) concentrates on Chrysalis which having had a torrid 5 years seems to have tarnished others with distrust of valuations. And, in terms of discount GROW receives a mention as it is at a nearly 70% discount.
The "silver lining" that, for my money is really what the article should be about but is rather buried, is that investors MUST monitor the holdings in such portfolio for signs of progress...... and by implication (my words) be prepared to take advantage of any discount.
Anyway, the article has rather more focus on the issues in Chrysalis, though, with the substitution of names and holdings, much can be applied to GROW as it does with CHRY.
Wish we had a firm announced sale of graphcore to boost nav/share.
wide range of possible results from modest additional nav/share decreases to modest nav/share increases in spite of modest dilution. at least a 150m nav range of possibility on valuation of whole portfolio -a range that undermines market confidence to be sure.
just need to be patient. at an ago i once asked the q why not more share specific information and reply was that core holdings prohibit it, result is worst of all worlds where in a tight market worst assumed without any of us having the information needed to decisively counter invest. all a big of a stumble in the dark
AVI did not get out at a profit. They are nursing a loss which the accounts clearly show. Plus they are not out
Fir me the low do has 4 main explanations:
1) we were well overpriced between launch in 2016 and 2022 and are correcting. nav in 20016 to 2020 was overstated.
2) all the exits (nearly half a billion) in 2021 2022 have been wasted when reinvested with little retained value plus test of portfolio doing poorly.
3) we have serious trouble in a majority of the core portfolio and the seed funds, trouble not yet talked about in public realm.
or 5
4) temporary irrational anxiety that will pass
Trump might actually be in breach of Stock Exchange rules with the SPAC that floated. Not that such things seem to matter to the "stable genius". Markets seem not to care if he is elected. If he is elected in 2024, I wonder if there will be a 2028 election.
Bear markets can last a lot longer than 18-24 months.
Remember the Lost Decade? Or speak to some that invested in Japan 20 odd years ago.
Peel Hunt were suggesting today in the FT that the UK market is going to end up like a stagnant backwater akin to Ireland's.
I would like to take on more risk with US stocks but they are facing a lot of political risk.
If Trump gets in he is talking about shutting down Federal agencies like the SEC, which I don't think the market would like.
Also a massive chunk of the SMT private holdings are in SpaceX, Bytedance, Northvolt and Stripe.
These are massive profitable companies and their value is not really in question.
So comparing the discounts doesn't really make a lot of sense.
Besides no one is going to make an offer to buy SMT, whereas someone could decide they want to buy the MV assets.
As we know, markets tend to move en-bloc and more often than not play "follow the leader". So, where US has a good day it is followed by a good day in Asia, then Europe before opening again in USA for the cycle to start all over again.
This year, the S & P has had a great start albeit that it has slipped back a little as investors take a breather. After all, January, February and March saw an uplift of 11% which has now slipped back to 8.5% versus the FTSE that has only just got out of bed with a gain for the year to date of 2.26%. It had been in negative territory for most of January and February. In turn, investors are shunning the UK in favour of holdings over the pond. I am one such investor where 15 of my top 20 holdings are quoted on either DOW or NASDAQ.
Again, returning to the broad direction of markets - these have for the last 100 or so years risen, though, of course, not always evenly. Crashes happen as do recoveries. Bull markets run out of steam and even when things are rising rapidly, there are down days, and sometimes quite sharp drops. These pauses might last a day or two, perhaps a week or a month but don't immediately herald either a crash or the savagery from a bear market.
All the bear markets I have been invested in tend to be of 12-18 months duration whereas the bull markets tend to be from 3 - 5 year runs and some even longer than that. Markets are in the first 6 months of a bull run and investors (especially those accross the pond) tend to get carried away in an election year. Having become a little frothy, I am not surprised to see the froth scraped off. What I am a little surprised about is that it seems to be taking an age for the tiddlers (such as those that GROW invests in) to get off the ground and either out pace the behmoths or at least show themselves to be nimble in finding new opportunities to exploit.
AVI bought in when the price was at all time lows. They may have been aggrieved by the dilution from the raise. Either way they exited with a profit.
Liontrust recently bought a lot and BlackRock were happy to pay 280p.
Do you think BlackRock didn't do any due diligence?
SMT is a good indicator as it is the largest IT in the UK and much more liquid than the rest. Their 7% discount to Nav is 26% when all applied against the private portfolio. Their listed stocks which are about 72% of the portfolio are very large and liquid so should be no discount there. SMT's private investments are also the largest of the private companies and in many cases are very unique. If they are at a 26% discount then I think it fair the cos in Moltens portfolio are at 50-55% discount as they are much much smaller and earlier in their progression. I think that is what market is doing, taking its lead from the bigger names. The big guys will lead the recovery and we have seen some of that already with SMT but the thing that could drive things lower is if the US Semi and Tech sector rolls over. semis had a bad day yesterday and the unprofitable tech and even the large tech. My advise is be careful when your conclusion tells you the market is wrong. Of course it gets things wrong but it is generally more right than wrong. If you take out 3i and Bridgepoint from your analysis the average PE discount to Nav is 34%. Yes, Molten one of worst. It has a terrible share register and i think annoys a lot of people with the way the external carry valuation has gone relative to the share price. That is a real slap in the face to shareholders. If I wa an IPO investor I would be furious. Also AVI, the specialist in discount trusts has been a seller recently from 7m shares last Autumn to lessthan 5m. Care is warranted, its not as cheap as it might appear.
Woodford spooked investors in our sector as well as FCA oversight which is now clearly over the top.
you would think smart money would immediately exploit the arbitrage opportunities of sentiment based low share prices but even in theory they may choisecthe best timing allowing sentiment based declines to play out in full first. some might even deliberately accelerate sentiment based decline in thin traiding to get a better buy in price.
ricardian economics it us not