Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I am really saddened to see MV sp go so low!
Am wondering now whether to put a modest amount of recent share profits (from SMCI and another US share) into more MV...
Uber posts first operating profit as public company
Ride-hire company Uber has reported its first full-year of operating profits since it floated on the stock market five years ago.
Uber has reported it made income from operations of $1.11bn in 2023, up from a loss of $1.832bn in 2022, beating expectations.
Revenues grew 17% last year, lifted by a 24% jump in trips in Uber vehicles.
“2023 was an inflection point for Uber, proving that we can continue to generate strong, profitable growth at scale,” said Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO, adding:
100-bagger! Wow!
I have done well recently with SMCI (Super Micro Computer) - sister/brother company to Nvidia; SMCI sp has increased 12-fold over a year. I know people who were lucky and savvy enough to hold it all that time!
However, I started buying in the mid 200s - it is now in the late 600s - though it hasn't been plain sailing by any means. For about eight months I found the share trading sideways (with occasional big rises, then huge dips). I held on throughout - occasionally panic-selling some, then rebuying pretty swiftly! - believing that sp would eventually break out - which it did this month on both excellent pre-announced Earnings and then a superb ER.
This helps make up for a lot of share losses incurred in 2021 - and now I am finally in respectable profit. I have reduced my stake here somewhat but am hoping to hold fairly long-term.
Yes we have done nothing but drop since we joined the FTSE 25o and renamed ourselves.
Over 2.5 years now since drop started and 1.5 years since this bottom (more or less) reached. So if a U shaped recovery it’s taking it’s time to get going on the recovery leg.
Nothing fundamental has happened to portfolio itself. Average of core portfolio growing sharply in sales year by year and sales are the key metric of value for unlisted tech. No core holding gone bust -which in modest numbers is normal enough.
The end of the pipeline (listed profitable tech) in rude health and at record highs. At some point money will pivot towards the better value to be had earlier in the pipeline of tech companies. When precisely unknowable but I suspect soon. Hold.
I suppose I should have anticipated the likely share price performance of MV. The name Molten Ventures suggests that the investments are in meltdown, does it not?
I've had a few over the years (mostly oilies) where I've held through big rises only to see them drop way back again, some even going bust. Nowadays I tend to sell half if they double for a free carry.
I'm in Helium One which should have been a multi-bagger but I got in when it was much higher and had pretty much written it off. It's a 10 bagger in 2 weeks for those that got it right, don't see too many like that.
I seem to do well with companies beginning with Y.
Yu Group & Yougov are among my best performers.
As a strategy it would be really limiting, Yellow Cake and Young & Co. would be my only other options.
I'm stuck for what to do about MV though, I'm of a mind to dump the lot at a big loss.
I've given it while to see if it recovers but I'm starting to think it might never happen.
Wish I knew. I’ve an idea that III which has been in wifes ISA for 20 years could be a 30 bagger. But over the last 50 years I can honestly state that I have bought just one share at the absolute bottom and lost count of the companies that promised much and returned little.
I have high hopes that AFC energy will do well, but until the company generates sales it remains speculative. Probably have 30 years of life remaining and 35 for wife. Portfolio remains structured for capital growth and risk at HIGH.
First 100-bagger! Please tell me your next one...
FWIW, I have sold a further tranche of my NVDA holding - think it is a little frothy at the moment. It was my first 100 bagger
SJ - look over the glassdoor for portfolio companies. Layoffs etc. I hope people took the opportunity to exit on the recent sp strength. Don't shoot the messenger but sub £2 possible.
Nothing would jump our sp more sharply ahead of year end preliminary results more than good news coming out of Graph-core. Such a wide range of outcomes from being worth zero (what the current market appears to assume) to being worth much more than we have it on our books for paving he way for a sharp increase in NAV/share on year end results (year end March 31 2024). As enclosed article indicates it is a big boys game determining the shape of the biggest tech companies for the future. Even a respectable small piece of that market through having created a better processing chip would be massive. Graphcore have sold successfully into top research universities but needs to move into the commercial markets and fast before core staff get poached in a sector that is paying pretty ordinary programing staff million dollar salaries.
https://news.futunn.com/en/post/37559609
Third, chip design startups established in the past five years, such as companies such as Tenstorrent, Cerebras, Graphcore, Etched, Extropic, and MATX, may use the new wave of AI to drive rapid growth in sales of their products.
However, The Information is not optimistic that so many AI chip companies will continue to exist in the future.
Also bought circa 9000 shares
nice to see directors buying.
Martin davis at 2.38
I note that a manager has purchased 10,000 shares. They tend to have their fingers on the pulse. I've put an order in too though for fewer shares.
Investing in businesses that might be the future Amazon/Alphabet/Apple etc is a bit like advertising where half the advertising spend is a total waste of money, though it is never known which half is wasted.
While all the companies in which there is investment have interesting and decent stories to tell, it is far too early in their lifecycle and the cutting edges that are being developed to know where the superstars will be. I don't need to know anything about any of the companies in the portfolio at all because I trust that the managers of Molten Ventures plc do know what they are doing, do understand which businesses are thriving and which are struggling.
I am trusting their judgement to provide either management expertise, marketing flair or cash for individual businesses in the portfolio. For instance, I own shares in a tiny food company based in the Hebrides - I know nothing about commercial food production or how to sell to put soups or steaks onto supermarket shelves but I can read a balance sheet and a profit and loss account. At the point when I invested my cash, I wrote that cash off. it is the same with GROW and NVDA, and MSFT and some 80+ other equities, IT's and ETF's. They ONLY have a value when sold.
As far as I am concerned, a discount of 80% on the NAV either means that they trust is doomed or someone somewhere has got things wrong - that could be me or the wider market. If the discount were 70% would I feel less worried? I doubt it - what about 50% etc
Other than Graphcore, which of the core portfolio companies do you see as distressed?
There is considerable similarity between a fund and an investment trust (IT), the main difference is in the underlying foundation, one is open ended, the other closed. I like IT’s as the shares can be traded even if the underlying assets held by the IT cannot.
Might not like the price offered, but can get out or buy more during market hours. The IT can also buy its own shares and hold those in treasury to resell them at a later date. We have currently effectively a business that itself is not in distress but its underlying assets are. Hence we see a “discount” of some 80% on the NAV.
I feel that interest rattes will be the catalyst to give confidence to investors. A little more time in the doldrums seems probable…… do I add more now or wait and rely on broader confidence and face a changed price?
There is a problem with this site through its myriad of advertisements. Occasionally, one or more rogue ones cause the entire content of a mssage to disappear, part way through its creation.
From time to time, I am able to copy content and hold it either in memory or, depending on the device, paste into an application that does not have such intrusion. I fear this was one such happenning, coupled with predictive text and both the inability to edit and my reluctance to put a final proof in place.
It will no doubt be applauded if I never mention Graphcore again.
No connection. Maybe a typo
Alas Smith
That is fine but it was your reference to GRAPHENE that I did not understand
Graphene is a material that is made up of carbon
Is there some connection between Graphcore and the material graphene or was it just a typing error?
As for Graphcore I have said previously I expect this to be written down to zero. They will either run out of cash or be bought for pennies or the fundraise would be swerved by MV. They say they need a billion dollars for the next 2-3 years and I don't think MV have 50m to chuck at them, so their holding would be worthless due to massive dilution.
I suspect they were written down to about £10m at the interims as there was reference to a £30m write down from 2 companies.
Graphcore are regular tweeters but they have posted nothing since New Year, which is a long time for them to be quiet.
Maybe lights are off.
In
Funds typically vote stuff through even if they don't like it.
This stock is not exactly liquid. Dumping by the Border to Coast Pension fund and BG have caused a 15% drop.
There is a risk here because if the SP doesn't recover they would consider delisting it , especially if the price is vulnerable to a buyer.
That would render all the LTIP options worthless, which are currently massively underwater.