The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Steve follow whatever you wish, some are chartists ,many use intuition and history.
If it works for the person ,ok.
Many say its just normal profit taking,whatever floats the boat.
Dasut - like you baffled by this really significant and sustained uphill charge after months and months languishing below the 90p mark. The GP alone won't do it. Also we have a long way to go before the AISC is brought under control. The turnaround within the company doesn't seem to explain a 50% uplift since Oct 19. I have a nasty suspicious side that wonders if someone out there knows something we don't. At the risk of sparking off a load of conspiracy theories - could there be a bid in the offing ?
nothing to do with Basel or all the other spurious detail- just normal markers and data points
they follow the data points and markers like i do
Gold price back on track again ,hovering at 1860.
Seems the US Traders forget the FED Speak very rapidly these days .
Perhaps they are taking notice of Basel faulty though it may be.
Overall good for CEY, is everything gradually coming right for Centamin.
Less than two weeks to see.
I think what we really need to do is forget the unfortunate history and the old guard and look to the present and hopefully the future. Forget £5 a share because as far as I can see Centamin don't have the resource in the ground or the resources to move enough ore to produce enough ounces at a profit to get anywhere near £5.
However they have achieved just over £2 so no reason why they can't get there again but only when the waste contract is over and done with because month on month millions of dollars come off the bottom line for zero return in ounces.
Horgan says the waste contract will result in a positive return question is when, at the end of the contract or during the contract, is it already contributing with ore already exposed?
I am fascinated by the current rise in the SP, OK driven somewhat by the GP but not entirely because normally will drop when GP drops but for a week now it is holding/improving through fluctuations. Certainly not complaining and hope Centamin have been able to take advantage of the healthy GP with the most recent ounces.
Now it is so important that the year end numbers presented to us on the 19th are very good and include a set of realistic numbers for 2023, that show a step up over 2022.
You will remember Mr T? Didnt they predict 600K ounces very shortly before one of the major problems?
doubtless you've all been watching....
150 would be great. Solid moves and congrats to investors
Spoonigton,
You completely missed the point about the prediction of a £5 share price from the old Cornish miner, this wa part of a light hearted discussion on the board when we were going through some difficult times to try a raise peoples spirits, that said it's not impossible in time if Centamin is run properly as we are led to believe now!
As a matter of interest the knowledge gained in the Cornish mining industry and the expertise of the mining professionals has been drawn upon all over the world, indeed there isn't anything the Cornish industry doesn't know about mining , especially underground,!
Pardy might have done well to take a few lessons from them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camborne_School_of_Mines
In 2018 the sole underground LHDR running on limits had suffered a critical breakdown with no spare parts or contingency plan resulting in another guidance cut RNS 3 weeks after predicting record output!
So I called Centamin representatives Buchanan and asked how this could have occurred,, the Buchanan representative said that as underground mining wasn't usually done in Eygpt there was limited operational knowledge, Pardey also tried to down play the importance of the contribution of the underground production and the fact that the underground access & egress was severely limited at that time!
Yet as has now been acknowledged by Martin Horgan & indeed mining analyst Kees Dekker the underground grades are of paramount importance to support the poorer open pit grades!
From 2015 0nwards the Sukari management including the unfit for post Sukaru general manager were glossing over the fact that guidance was being achieved by high grading and that they were allowing the accumulation of waste ore, At the same time Pardey and Youssef were making what they knew were were unachievable and unsustainable guidance forecasts in the Egyptian and market media, this is surely spoofing in order fool the market and shareholders!
So I stand by my opinions because they are supported by the evidence of the dire state of the company and the subsequent events, I have posted the links to the relevant reposts and media releases on here recently.
Where is your evidence to the contrary?
Agreed, I might disagree with some of Mr T's output but I missed him when he wasn't here and appreciate his return to the board. Like everyone on here, if you don't like someone's posts, don't read 'em.
Mr Tibbs has built a reputation on this board over the past ten years or so and was sorely missed when he recently took a break. Differences of opinion are interesting and informative; personal attacks are rather tedious.
Some nice daily moves without a pullback suggests the momentum is on our side currently
I hope to see 150p
And hopefully the price doubles....back to our all time high
And then we have more growth through development
And then I woke up-but after 10 plus years it would be nice to be rewarded
You accuse previous management of artificially inflating the share price, misleading shareholders, creating a pyramid scheme & numerous other ridiculous claims & that got the share price to a bit shy of 2.50 which you consider to be a sham created by management, the El Raghy family & whoever else you add to your conspiracy theory.
After ranting about the above in the next breath you say that the share price should be double the amount you consider to be a fraud - you trap yourself with your baseless ramblings Mr T.
Instead of utilising the opinions of unidentified Cornish miners why don’t you attempt to back up your 5 pound target with some real analysis detailing the production levels, costs, etc. that would be required to achieve it - I would like to see that!
Most people on this board will be sensible and not let any of the posts affect their investment decisions - however there is an unavoidable risk that some will be foolish & actually pay some heed to the posts, it is irresponsible for you to make such baseless & unsubstantiated price targets - you may be accused of engaging in fraudulent ramping activities!
Horgan also has M&A ambitions. A two-edged blade if ever there was one.
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Friday ahead of a series of fresh economic reports, which include those on consumer confidence in the Eurozone and a preliminary one on inflation, factory orders in Germany, and house prices in the United Kingdom.
The DAX grew by 0.53% at 7:00 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 rose by 0.30%. The CAC 40 gained 0.56%.
Both the euro and the pound sterling stood flat against the dollar at 7:19 am CET to sell for $1.05188 and $1.19160, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend.
Some of the facts
The national USA debt ($31.33 T) is the total amount of outstanding borrowing by the U.S. Federal Government accumulated over the nation's history... (most of it inthe last 10 or so years!!!)
INTRAGOVERNMENT DEBT
Intragovernmental holdings totaled more than $6.82 trillion in October 2022.
Why would the government owe money to itself? Because some agencies, like the Social Security Trust Fund, take in more revenue from taxes than they need. These agencies then invest in U.S. Treasurys rather than stick this cash under a giant mattress!
Social Security trusts, including the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, held $2.75 trillion in Treasurys as of August 2022. The next largest agency was the Military Retirement Fund at $1.18 trillion.
PUBLIC OWNED DEBT
The public holds over $24.29 trillion of the national debt.1 Foreign governments hold a large portion of the public debt, while the rest is owned by U.S. banks and investors, the Federal Reserve, state and local governments, mutual funds, pensions funds, insurance companies, and holders of savings bonds.
The Treasury breaks down who holds how much of the public debt in a quarterly Treasury bulletin. Foreign and international investors held over $7.6 trillion, according to its September 2022 bulletin, which included data through March 2022. State and local governments held $1.45 trillion and mutual funds had $3.26 trillion.
The national debt held by the public is not only in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. It's also in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and special state and local government series securities.
RECAP. So in 1971 the US Govt defaulted on the exchange of gold for US$, because they had spent more than they earnt. The euphemistic way of explaining this, was that the strength of a countries currency was directly related to the stength of its economy...and of course this meant the US$ was a paramount in the world currencies, as the US Economy was the strongest...a MOST EXORBITANT PRIVILEGE #2 for the good ol USA. BUT IN REALITY THE THE US DEFAULTED ON ITS DEBT AND CURRENCY OBLIGATIONS BY CHANGING THE RULES AND USING LOVELY LANGUAGE...
And what happens when the US Govt finds out it cannot pay for all of the military niceties, or its social obligations ... it just prints more money and on the show goes...
Poor old Bernie Madoff went to jail for this sort of caper?
Good luck with your fiats, dont get caught holding them ... you know which way their value is going, and that is down, down down.
GO GOLD
best
the Gnome
Well Prince Harry's new book was outed in Spain (thank goodness it was not the French!? could be another war, LOL) and lots of other frivolities designed to enlighten us, happening.
I like the way Ray Dalio composites data and his views (not all), and for those interested in history of debt, and the lessons learned (he presents a good lot of graphics and info which allows one to draw their own conclusions)
https://www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/principles-for-navigating-big-debt-crises-by-ray-dalio.pdf
and for those who like a more condensed version in video form
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
Free useful facts and information, what is the world coming to!!!
We do have to talk about Harry though?
best
the gnome
Far more pros than cons.
If no more than production back to pre open pit re wall caos, then even that would show a huge improvement.
Pros
5) Doropo PFS bankable and gets green light.
6) Promising results from ABC
7) New underground Fleet provides excellent availability and reliable continuity of production.
8) Strong underground production improves grades
9) As waste removal opens up the pit, ore deposits exposed.
10) Consistent quarterly figures inline or better than forecast.
11) Company gains credibility with the market
12) Court Case find in favour of Centamin
I've bought and held, made 40% + dividend it's not to be sniffed at. Not sure all the traders of centimin have done that well, and they have had to be on it every day.
Positives
1) Bonanza grade zone entering production, how many ounces for how long?
2) Sukari satellite orebody feedstock, how many ounces for how long?
3) New deposits discovered on new concessions (obviously depends on when they start drilling!) If a new deposit is found, probably minimum 5 years to drill out and build a mill
4) gold price outperforms
Negative
1) AISC keeps rising due to lower grades/less ore than expected
2) Doropo building costs much more than previously forecast/project gets mothballed
3) Black Swan event - Sukari exploitation license threatened, processing plant failure, underground disaster, consumables become difficult to source
4) zero premium buyout
5) gold price underperforms
Please feel free to add to the list and/or comment what will be the result of such events.
One thing is clear - trading Centamin along with the moves of gold (if you can time it!) has worked better than holding for the 'growth & diversification' story that just never seems to materialize.
The 52-week high/low is the highest and lowest price at which a security, such as a stock, has traded during the time period that equates to one year.
Key Takeaways
The 52-week high/low is the highest and lowest price at which a security has traded during the time period that equates to one year and is viewed as a technical indicator.
The 52-week high/low is based on the daily closing price for the security.
Typically, the 52-week high represents a resistance level, while the 52-week low is a support level that traders can use to trigger trading decisions.
Understanding the 52-Week High/Low
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/52weekhighlow.asp