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Net migration to UK of 700,000 p.a. has a significant effect on demand, with many more festivals and annual celebrations. A diverse range of cards to reflect these festivals in addition to birthdays will surely add to turnover.
My local card factory in leicester is always busy… it’s small… wide range of demographics when I’m in there.
Any thoughts on the impact of low shopping footfall reported in jan and feb? I’m worried this is going to impact results… at the same time if we buck the trend and still show growth that would be an amazing statement
Bishop Stortford / Herts.. Always a busy (sometimes manic) store, bit small tbh . Its like night and day compared to Clintons a few doors away. Their shop would swallow CFs store several times over but is mostly empty..
Same thing tho, customer base is older gen
Relist on Nasdaq? LOL.
Where are you based? Don't forget that CARD has more than 1,000 stores nationwide, so will appeal to a very wide demographic. Big difference between spending £1 on a card and £4 - especially if you are a regular card giver.
Moon results out tomorrow
Keep a close eye on it will highlight how good card is trading
Growth rates debt profit etc all superior from card
I think moon is a wolf in sheep’s clothes
Maybe its that its customers tend to be of the older generations. I shop there regularly but dont see many teens etc in there.
Moonpig probably appeals to the younger generations so is CARD's main customer base shrinking and reflecting it in its valuation ?
Hi Retired Banker,
It’s purely Sector ratings!
The market views MOON as Tech and CARD as retail.
I expect CARD results next month to be very good and given Debt will have reduced yet again we should see a small Dividend!
I Sold all of MOON and Doubled up on CARD
Screaming Buy!
Best Wishes
Other than the fatuous "Moonpig uses AI" excuse ... does anybody have a sensible reason why CARD is so under-performing
MOON : 2023 Rev 320m ; Net Profit 27m ; YoY Growth < 5% - Mkt Cap 550m
CARD : 2023 Rev 460m ; Net Profit 44m ; YoY Growth >20% - Mkt Cap 325m
I feel a dividend announcement HAS to be made next month with the results .... either that or a relisting on the nasdaq
The ONLY thing I see MOON having in its favour is that it is actively growing the RedLetterDays gifting options, perhaps CARD needs to aggressively expand into that higher value product set. Any thoughts ?
Im with you on the notion that some online growth would help… and am excited by the lower debt… especially the fact that dividend restraints will go. I’m just concerned about profitability and can’t see any information (unless I’ve missed it) about margin recovery … though appreciate a nice step change in revenue will help absolute profitability hit back to 2018 levels but we are talking circa 550mn I think.
I do hope the dividend is restored but at the same time perhaps they wish to utilise that cash with acquisitions to achieve their revenue ambitions.
Did see two very large trades this morning coming to a total of 1.1mn but system doesn’t say if it was a big or sell….
Either way I’m 100 percent positive that the share price will be higher then where we are now come the time leading up to results… wish I had more money to invest but its all tied up elsewhere.
Also the new financial year started for card in February… so come April at results time I would hope we know what they plan to do with the profits now that debt levels are very low
You're probably not far off. They are still a small ways' below their FY 18 and FY19 eps of 15p despite revenue having grown 12% in nominal terms and although theyve recovered their margins somewhat, the street forecasts I see dont expect them to get to operating margins beyond 13.5% even by 2025 (compared with pre-covid 17/18%) i.e. theyre going to have to work on controlling costs whilst pushing the top line to even get back to where they were 5 years ago. The bigger issue frankly is the 16% volume based decline in the card market since 2019, with online (where CF is basically nowhere, though click and collect doesnt seem a bad approach) also taking a bite out of it. Doesnt surprise me that theyve started expanding abroad given the UK is a slowly dying market though it means they have to run just to stand still, so to speak. A 6-7x pe ratio is basically an ex growth company price which is where they currently are so until they start to move the needle on the bottom line, I dont really expect a significant rerating.
Bhaveen,
I think you are setting your sights extremely low with those SP targets - my own target by res date is 150p.
Remember that in 2019 (leading into covid year) the SP was around 200p with EPS of 15p, and a 9.3p div and net debt around £140m.
FY23 figures were £463m revenue, PBT $52.4m and EPS of 12.9 and net debt down at £57m
For me the positive drivers should be:
-significantly improving digital and on-line presence including app and click and collect
-wider product range including expansion of the gifts offerings
-expansion of store partnerships
-projected revenue growth to a target of £650m in FY27 (nearly £200m increase from now!)
-expected further reduction in debt
-expected reinstatement of dividend
Regarding the dividend, the BOD have stated they would consider reinstatement in FY2025 (that starts in July 2024!) and I recall them stating these would be at div cover levels of between 2 and 3.
So, based on current 12.9 EPS that could imply a div of 4.3, to 6.5p, which based on current SP would give a yield of 4.7% and 7%.
This is now my 3rd largest holding which I am very comfortable with, and I will continue to add further as funds allow while prices are around this current low level,
Was just windering if we would ever see the +£1.60 in share price that we had seen in 2020 and I’m struggling to see how we would get there… even now our debt is at a very low level, we have cash in the bank and dividends should be forthcoming. All I can think of now is the decline in profitability … each year from 2016 we have had revenue growth (except covid closure time periods) but every year less profit … I think we are looking at mid 50s millions for FY24 but that’s still around 8 to 9m short of 2020 even though revenue will be higher … i would hope 1.15 come next qtly results and maybe 1.30 if we get a dividend but without profitability at a decent level like previous years I think we are stuck… would love to be corrected!
The share price is looking appealing again.
Good Valentines day out the way and now Mothers Day on the immediate horizon.
Should be a good quarter.
The current economic situation should play to card
It’s a reason why the company is doing well
I’m not fussed on online card penetration online is going the wrong way due to ever increasing higher delivery costs on such a low basket level
However this board need to get a grip on the comms to the market as they like let us be played around like a piece of trash
Get it sorted Darcy and the German cfo matteas
Not sure what the share price transaction is but no reason why we can hit the 11 plus regions in terms of P/E ratio bearing in mind other bricks and mortar retailer achieve this and beyond … moon pig is around 17 P/E ratio but it’s high due to being tech and leveraging AI… you’d hope we hit the 1.20 mark cine April results but I think this will be dependent on how they decide to spend their profits now that tranche A and the covid loan has been cleared … I saw a funky pigeon ad today for Mother’s Day… I honestly don’t understand why cars don’t hire some online expertise and drive their digital proposition and advertise.
CF holding around 93p.
if they fall any further below this number I will be forced to buy some more for the longer term but it would be nice to see some upward movement for all of those who have remained loyal. What do we all think is a fair 1 year average price target for CF, I have in mind £1.45 ? Is that reasonable or am I just dreaming ? This is not in anyway a recommendation to anyone to buy this is my own price target figure that I have.
25000 shares purchased all morning.
So easy for the bots to take it down.
IR seem completely useless here.
I can only see dividends drumming up interest.
Really poor performance on decent results.
I don’t think a share buy back will guarantee to make a difference… greencore just completed theirs and no share price change. A dividend would definitely help … investors have plenty of choice now with companies who are showing capital growth and dividends so why put money in cars which had no dividends. Finally online growth… they harp on digital transformation but it’s clearly not translating into performance … I hope when they have less debt they will start to advertise their online offering…‘I doubt the mass market even knows they do personalised cards that are competitive with Moonpig.
Suggest we just need patience. There are plenty hiding in the shadows happy to buy any cheap shares. Dividend reinstatement and modest buyback the way forward imho. The useless British government, UK financial isolation, recession, miserable state of the country don't exactly help any UK domestic shares presently.
Forget the continued promising results, the annual investor performance return on this share is nil............comments please.
What does Card Factory need to do to get the market interested ??
Getting embarrassing this now
Apply wincantons multiple on takeout to card and you get a card valuation of over 900m near 280 pence
Card by the way has a huge ebitda per centage vs wincanton who is low single digits
Does everybody in the city just hate card shops ?
Is very volatile day to day for a retail company with more or less predictable sales and the spread seems large, being kept down maybe.
Darcy needs to sort it
Card is better than those who have been knocked over
Buys exceeding sells by the looks of it. I think this might be one of JKR's favourites. It was listed in one of PensionWise's vids a while back as one of the long term value stocks.