The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
$14.33 Currently per market
$15 would be a push, but since I bought some $15 call options expiring tomorrow, anything over $15 would be great :D
$15 ?????
Strong results, I like the shareholder letter - very positive stuff.
Yep, the UK market is a wet duck as we know. Low valuations and volume.
… hopefully they will be well received across the pond
At first sight they look really really strong!
News Editor
Burford Capital (NYSE:BUR) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Thursday, March 14th, before market open.
The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.28 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $141.9M
Looks like shorts are in control and low investor confidence with the major shareholder selling down, just before the results.
Seems like a good opportunity to top up.
Perhaps we are forgetting that the two most important beneficiaries of the 30% owned by the Madrid Petersen liquidators, are Repsol (EUR 1.35 billion) and the Anchorage Fund (unknown amount). I wouldn't be surprised if the Petersen companies still owe some monies to the Wall Street investment banks that initially financed the acquisition of YPF shares. Not much would be left (if any) for Argy politicians.
Bowtied Mara has published a useful piece summarising events around collection of the YPF judgement up to and including the recent London court application, and next weeks court session by phone with Judge Preska.
BTM has been resident in Argentina for 20 years, and writes generally about both Latin America and Argentina.
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/the-16-billion-ypf-inheritance?publication_id=946567&post_id=142551125&isFreemail=true&r=1zvm0&triedRedirect=true
The big drag on earnings from the rise in interest rates for much of the year was fully reversed in Q4, so not only will it not be a drag, but it will be a significant boost in Q4. The 50bp sensitivity reported in September was $82m, and the drop in rates in Q4 was (depending on your metric) between 80 and 100bps. That's a lot of money on a MTM basis.
(I watched from a close premier plan angle the ICSID rulings caused freefall of GBU shares. BUR should consider and analyse the ruling, and maybe have a try with them...with theoir multibillion claim against Romania).
I am thinking on the valuation here. Obviously 10-11 gbp now means a much cheaper valuation, when it was the same last year. All their numbers shows growth. The fruits of their yearly work and contribution to the companys value will be there (on their slideshows...:-)
Looks like shorts have closed further in the US, they made the most of SP drop from top investor selling a portion to fund another adventure (they had made 100% from initial investment). Major II Short sellers look at a lot of data and analytics, they must think it’s time to reduce.
Goodbye Amica, we will miss you. You’re correct, guess Burford is not for everyone, seeing it going up and down on courts being closed and them naughty Argies not paying. Feel awful for you, hope it won’t take long to get over the stress of it all.
How many times have we heard that, too many times and the accounts don't back it up.
I'm out of this now it's just too flakey
Ashmore's comments this week :
.."Argentina: Vehicle sales increased to 33.2k in February from 15.9k in January as production increased to 37.5k from 22.6k over the same period, the highest level for the month in five years, but still below the average over the last 10 years. Vehicle exports rose to 23.6k from 15.3k (highest since 2015). Construction activity dropped by 10.3% mom in January, a drop of 21.7% in yoy seasonal-adjusted terms. The central bank continued to accumulate FX reserves and Bloomberg reported locals have deposited USD 2.3bn in dollar-denominated accounts in local banks since Javier Milei took office, a 17% increase to USD 16.4bn."
GLA
CB says company goes from strength to strength and portfolio is at a tipping point,looking forward to hearing forward guidance and earnings on thursday,market is obviously skeptical!
Another take on Argentina, from Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cognitive-investments-welcomes-jacob-l-130000396.html
.. I think there’s a lot of interesting things happening around the world, but I really do think Argentina is an interesting place to keep focused. Now, I’m not saying that Milei is going to be able to turn it around, and he’s got a long road to hoe, but part of me wonders, is this... Brazil had a moment like this around ‘94, ‘95 where they had hyperinflation, and they really had to reset things, and they had to think very clearly about structural reforms. It took them until about now to get to the point where all of that was starting to pay off.
I wonder if Argentina is at the very, very beginning moments of that, where we finally ticked bottom, and that Milei is a signal that people want real change there.
It’s interesting because from a geopolitical perspective, Argentina has everything you possibly could want. It’s the entrance to the Rio de la Plata, really doesn’t have any rivals around it that are going to threaten it, it can play all sides, ample resources that it can export. They have their own version of the shale revolution happening, so they’re going to add hydrocarbons to the list.
If you could just—but people have been saying this about Argentina for 100 years too—but if you could just get them to change their culture... and maybe it takes a guy who communes with his dead dog to get election strategy to be the man to push it forward.
As we’re looking back at 2023 and 2024, I wonder if we’ll say, “That was the year that Argentina finally started to change.” It’s a very interesting political experiment that’s happening..."
GLA and ATB
I listened to YPF Q4/FYE results presentation the other day.
Presentation by 3 x execs, in English, somewhat wooden 'talking to teleprompter' and slides supporting commentary that were difficult to read and only shown briefly. Interesting background footage of YPF operations and the Argentine countryside.
My summary take-away :
- YPF has a 4x4 plan - to quadruple the share price in 4 years. The way it hopes to do this shows the extent of economic mismanagement (but also potential):
- it wants to divest a large part of its bloated historic businesses (60% of its oil production + 40% of its gas production) that together contribute barely 1% - 1% !- to the bottom line;
- it hopes to have awarded an arranger mandate for multiple discrete privatisations by end Q1 2024 and have the divestment process underway by Q3 2024;
- use the proceeds (+ external funding + 'strategic partner') to develop its world-class LNG potential (hitherto unexploited) over the next 3-4 years (leasing floating LNG plants to kickstart the process), with eventual targets of 25-30 mtpa and $ 15Bn pa export earnings;
[Ed.: for comparison, Qatar 77mtpa; Australia 44mtpa; Malaysia 24mtpa; Nigeria 22mtpa; Indonesia 16mtpa; Algeria 12mtpa; Russia 10mtpa; Trinidad 10mtpa; Oman 8mtpa];
- divestment/privatisation is expected to unlock the 'hidden value' of assets-for-sale (hidden by bloated workforces, financial mismanagement and unproductive past 'politically-directed' investment), YPF counting on est. cost-savings of $ 800m pa as much as on actual sale proceeds [Ed.: management understandably reticent to quantify these];
- all the while, YPF expects to build on the 25% contribution of renewables (solar/wind) to the current bottom line.
Management fielded questions from UBS, JP Morgan, Santander, BTG Pascual and - I think- Seb Maril's LatAm Securities, with what I thought were fairly vague answers to a lot of the harder questions, perhaps understandably so, given the 'uncharted waters' that Argentina is now in.
I've had a shareholding in both BUR and YPF for a while now, am comfortably up on both and see no reason atm to divest.
NAI, DYOR, E&OE etc etc
Per Seb, the litigation just started in London Commercial court isn't BUR-financed
.."Petersen/Eton are financing the motion to recognize Judge Preska’s NY YPF judgment in London’s Commercial Court. Pertersen is using its own funds while Eton has pledge future earnings from the award. Burford is not financing this action. A recognition of the judgment occurs when the recipient of the award is seeking to enforce a judgment in a different jurisdiction from the original ruling..."
Although BUR 'not involved', I hope that this has their tacit approval, and isn't a case of the clients 'going rogue'....and possibly 'muddying the waters' (groan) in NY.
GLA
Https://twitter.com/messages/1532388093529149440/participants
Regarding Thursdays presentation, as a reminder, here's the previous transcript. Let's hope we continue in the same vein...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4649938-burford-capital-limited-bur-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript
Have you a link to the chat group please? I can't locate it. TIA
Not long to wait thursday earnings,looking forward to them
Im in the Burford chatgroup on Twitter,Asif posted it there to explain there reasons for selliing