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Sorry rushed post, I’m in Las Vegas at the moment!
Yep roughly Renegade, but no o thinks they will collect it full. Will be negotiations to reduce the full amount. But as case progresses the doors keep closing again listing to Bogart.
Another thing to note, they have been funding much larger cases last few years.
See the analytics suggest a target SP Average of £16. Without recent results analysis.
Around 800e usd per day for BUR...
Even if the half or third would arrive in the future, thats quite impressive. (According to Seb, one hardly understandeble reason for appealing instead of earlier settlement.)
Even Venezuela is trying to settle somehow to save or avoid a disountes sale of CITGO, by offering cash, future instalments, etc. Atgentina should also offer some cash, futurd instalments, and royalties to a mix of its huge natural reources.
Twt,
Please correct me if I'm wrong but, didn't I read somewhere that until the case is settled in full, the accrued interest from now on is something like $2.5M a day?
In my view hindering of Arg.'s bond issuance is one of the most influential legal weapon.
Pennylots, when they loose the Appeal around Oct 2024, the case will be marked up again, as the value increases with each milestone according to Bogart, also with the huge amount of cases outstanding, which is evident in the brilliant document showing all cases either concluded or outstanding since inception. It can easily be replicated and more.
When they loose the 2nd circuit appeal, it will go back to Supreme Court, for them to reject it again, but will take a few more months. They will just keep dragging it out.
When it does go to settlement, this will then take 3-6 months to thrash out a deal. Then payment schedule Zzzz
I’m really excited about the existing portfolio.
TWT, thanks for your viewpoint.
The appeal decision should be out October time. Then time to sit down and negotiate. Hopefully, Milei
Has the upper hand by then and can persuade the Argentine parties to back him. A lot of uncertainty, I would like to see Burford seizing some assets to get the message out before then, or at least the threat to
proceed. Any more views are most welcome.
My guess is - 2025 Q3-Q4
But I think case progression will keep the growth for now and back log still coming through. We are producing a lot of CASH, cash is king! Believe only 6 cases settled in Q4, so much more to come.
With regards to Argies negotiating - IF Burford are able to cease something earlier, like YPF shares owned by the government (not the provinces) or an embargo on any number of things that will create a greater impact if they don't settle, then they will settle sooner!! Like they did with Repsol.
Remember a fund would have to outsource the enforcement, all in house for BUR with the most experienced team in the business.
Presuming there will be a settlement agreement on the YPF case.
I would like to put the question of timing to those experienced investors. on this board.
What are your views on when we are likely to see a settlement or indeed news that it is being discussed by both parties.
As they have menaingful growth potential, they wont let those cash inflows (which exceeds expenaes and finance costs ) "free", but reinvest along with other sources (bond issuance, or through thier funds). And thats a good news, rather barely new...
Running out of cases thus cash inflows that vomes from covid caused postponement wont neccesserely means that revenue growth will soften sharply later, for the above mentioned reason with growth financed by several sources.
The ypf case should be resolved once, but hopefully that money comes from there will be reinvested into - growth again.
Recent sp includes the ypf case omly with a huge discount . I dont say the books, but the market valuation . In spite the facts that was elaborsted below, related to other Arg assets rerated (binds and several companies shares (YPF, Pampa Energia etc ) br
P Lotz that post made me laugh.… 🤣.. I think we will see a steady rise from here..
Congratulations to CB and JM on a cracking set of results. But why didn't the SP go straight to £12 or £13? Undervalued?
In order to keep my reputation for being negative, the reality is that the $543 m of 2023 booked unrealised gains on YPF will not be replicated in 2024. So the P/E ratio of 5.25 is not an indicator of future performance (as they say).
As to cash flow "meaningfully exceeding expenses and finance costs" that glosses over the fact that there is no FCF.
Despite all this I finally took note of TWT's advice on 13 March and bought a chunk of shares!
Other thing: it simply doesnt make sense to compare any P/E ratio to historical data, especially to the rexent few years. Muddy, then Covid, etc. Average years dont exist, at least not in this half decade yet
Simple Wallstreet is pathetic
I have already read some very poor analytics on Burford's recent results, both mentioned they feel revenue will decline by 20% for the next 2 years. What a load of rubbish, this is Ai 'Simple Wallstreet' absolute rubbish that people read. Sure, people will put the research in to see that Burford is a compounding machine and this is just the start, I expect 2024 to knock the socks off 2023, we still have A LOT of back log to work through.
InvestingPro Insights
Burford Capital (BUR) has demonstrated remarkable financial performance in its recent earnings report, with a notable surge in net income margin and consistent portfolio growth. Here are some insights based on the latest data from InvestingPro that investors might find valuable when evaluating the company's current position and future potential:
InvestingPro Data points to a strong market capitalization of $3.08 billion and an attractive P/E Ratio of 5.25, which adjusts slightly to 5.2 when considering the last twelve months as of Q3 2023. This low earnings multiple could suggest that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings potential, aligning with the company's reported earnings growth.
Very subtle Mr Rider … Mr P Lotz will be back soon enough with his neg posts… however I’m going to have to postpone my $20+ Miami Lunch for now due to not reaching $20+… 😂
Mr Marroc apologise to Seb but please assure him when Mr Milei agrees his 70% discount sweet deal with Mr Bogart and the $20 arrives the restaurant choice is his..
"Cash receipts in FY23 meaningfully exceeded total operating expenses and finance costs".
For the fellow who was afraid of the going concern status ....
Very interesting approach/analysis extrader. Much appreciated.
Oops!
I should have made clear that GGAL and YPF prices are those of their NY-listed $ denominated ADR's....
Hi Forensic 505,
My guess is that the mark-up is a considered reflection of changing prospects on a blend of Argentina's ability AND willingness to pay. A court judgment-improving enforcement/recovery prospects- must improve the 'willingness (gritted teeth)' metric ?
Argentina sovereign debt prices in the secondary market have risen from a low of 18c 2 years ago, through 22c a year ago and currently stand at around 34c (on the dollar).
Although not strictly comparable (and there's an added factor in that they're in differing sectors, with their own specific characteristics), here's what's happened to the share prices of 2 businesses in Argentina : Grupo Galicia (GGAL) - a financial services group - and YPF itself over the last 3 years.
The share-price is a fair proxy for (1) the 'smart money's ' assessment of likely realisability of the company's business plan and (2) associated 'country' risk.
-GGAL has progressed from $7 through $9 to $10 as at 12 months ago and today stands at $24;
-YPF has progressed from $4 through $4.30 to $ 9.50 as at 12 months ago and today stands at $ 18.30;
Again, we're not comparing like-with-like, but BUR's evaluation doesn't seem to be an outlier. And, presumably, it's been passed by its auditors....
AFAICS/NAI/DYOR
GLA and ATB
Take it up with the SEC who approved the process 505.
It's a BIG case and they have to account for it. good to see the cases are churning around that's for sure.
Argies will pay, will just take 1-2 years after they have exhausted the appeals process - standard.
I always find it very difficult to understand Burford's results. But from my reading almost all of the profit increase is down to this:
"YPF-related assets generated $543 million of unrealized gains in FY23". That is of course on top of previous YPF unrealised gains of around $750m, if my memory serves.
Isnt that quite a brave mark up given the uncertainties in Argentina's ability to pay ? Red rag to the Muddy Waters bull ?
That's just a brilliant set of 2023 final results, with much more to come in 2024 and 2025, also a clear line to see in compounded assets growth for Burfords shareholders, also a massive lump sum expected from our winning YPF case, I'm certain milei will get that negotiated and sorted out as soon as he can get his coffers filled with at least $16 billion of free dollars to peruse his dollarization programme, he gets the space , we get our Lump sum. Everything else is just that we legal dance that the losing side do when they are trying to unnerve and weaken the plaintiffs negotiating hand, / getting neighbouring countries to fight your battles.
It's a excellent set of results and I'm more than pleased to see them today, though we may have far to many short- termers invested here that are just waiting on the YPF lump sum and then out. that's ok though the really big money will be earned here medium to longer term when more cases like YPF, sysco, and the Greenland mining case get put through the court's and Burford can again sell off part of the settlement award,
At the minute new York is just mirroring London's share price, so I would expect these figures would get well received when the NY market opens up, they have often dropped and when the analysts get to work on our results they often rise and sometimes considerably marked higher, it will be interesting to see how they accept these excellent set of pfor its and figures, though isn't this mostly about the free = into the share price YPF $16 billion court award collection money LOL.
Gla