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Rider75 Argentina have officially pencilled in a settlement award of $8.4 billion dollars, believe me around that figure this case will get settled for, Burford acknowledges that we won't collect that top figure of $16 billion dollars,/ I wish,
So some kind of payments plan will eventually come in at around $8.4 billion dollars and believe me Burfords management will rejoice in anything near that figure. At the minute it's politically dangerous for Argentina to agree even that amount but that will hopefully change very soon.
Gla
I dont really get it how anyone can quote muddy waters again...
BUR could easly make cash flow by selling to third parties its holdings but why would they? Their aim was to overweight their self funded (BURF only) cases to maximize profit in the future. Could easily substitute the soutce of finamce of hese self funded (or bond funded) cases with external capital (funds).
At least I think thats the case.
Arg stated before that they think 4-5 bn (instead of 16) would be fair. Thus the present valuation in the books cannot be exeggarated
Jammyc go and get some help mate , don't take your moods out on other posters if you've invested heavily in shield therapeutics at around 60p if I remember correctly and now around 2p , that's life unfortunately, own it, don't take your moods out on other posters here or anywhere, penneylots has been on occasion a good contributor to this forum, though maybe this fall again has triggered some kind of anti burford meltdown, I don't know, but pennylots post are normally worth waiting on.
Gla
Setup another account GTX?
Rabc, your on the money mate.100% agree with all that.
Gla
Well jammy you would be better placed to fact check pennylots and £100 share price predictions with the assertion that Buford may be challenged at being a going concern and in some kind of financial trouble, so instead of you Just trying to play the big innocent man here then act like a big man and asks pennylots for any evidence that Burford is in any type of financial trouble, no one needs concocted bad stories around a good company after muddy waters, not even £100 share price target thata only fit for the fairees . Stand up for whats right not constantly changing litigation percentage uptakes,
GLA
I'm not sure why you're attempting to seek credibility by attacking another poster.
Maybe best to ensure you remain factually correct and have a grip on basic maths?
Jammy that percentage has been changed several times in the past, that's not to say your not correct.
Gla
As I've stated before with many others here to were our shares might be in several months time , be that £20 or even £26 by Xmas or even next Xmas , but what I won't be stupid enough to say is that our shares will be £100 anytime soon as we've seen posted here by another other out of his mind poster, it takes all kinds I guess,
GLA
I believe they accept circa 4% of offered cases, leaving 96%
Abacus burford can easily accept many more litigation cases than they can currently fund, they accept only around 7% of what they are offered, that leaves around 97% just sitting around waiting on another litigation funder getting offered them, burford get the pick of the very best winnable cases ,that opportunity gives them the strongest chance to win 90% chance, that's nearly a licence to print money here, every year as we've seen Burford wins hundreds of millions of dollars worth of cases approximately $600 million plus or around $2 billion over 3 years as they themselves have forecast and looking at their average past return rates, when Burford raises more money in any bond offerings they are essentially saying to its shareholders that they are pushing ahead with staying in front of their litigation funder competitors and raising th new money to achieve that aim, any new money will always be held to fund the massive amount of new cases that are just sitting there waiting for funding, burford can't be caught without substantial amounts of financing money, they could get a unbelievable offer to fund a guaranteed pay out case/ diesel gate tho of case, easy money, there's loads of these types of case's that need huge amounts of money, thus the need for Burford to hold a war chest of money to fund these massive money making cases, thus the continuous need to raise more and more money, it's the same for the banks, they go into the capital markets to raise money for lending to commercial and private customers, you wouldn't say on a normal basis a bank is in trouble if it borrowed from another bank or institution, it happens on a daily basis, Burford will get to a point one day when it doesn't need to borrow money , Burford is today as big as it is because it borrowed money to fund its case's to this point, if it keeps doing what it does then naturally at some point it's not going to need outside funding, it's essentially a money making machine that can return a IRR of around 20% to 30% per year on our money, our top management Bogart etc have hundreds of millions$$$$ worth of our shares , they don't want to see their personal holding diluted with a share fund raise, they want to raise money/ cash at 9+% interest rate so they can keep 10% or 20% of any gain in our profits made from our cases, that's smart, that's why they are each worth hundreds of millions of dollars ,
Burford is a solid great company worth holding very tightly for a very long time, and at some point Burford will have to start
paying its yearly surplus profits out in substantial cash dividends,
GLA.
Fair point abacus , I’ve already stated I’m worried about our fourth quarter , that said I’m encouraged this morning that the market here isn’t matching the nyse closing price !
I would caution tho to dismiss yesterdays drop is as stupid as it was to categorically state it was going to be £20 -£26 by Christmas
Personally I’m happy to believe Burford will repay my conviction in the next few years and where are we now re institutional investors? Circa 60%
Could it be that they have committed/reinvested any profit and new funding into new cases? Similarly, any old/ongoing cases have not yet been resolved yet.
From what I can see, the BoD have not bought/sold any significant shares of late.
Show me a 'growing company' where demand outweighs earnings, where they don't borrow to fund growth.
Some good rebuttals to pennylots post, but no one has answered his point regarding the money raise in January, at 91/2 %, why do they need to raise more funds if case wins are rolling in? Thanks for any replies.
I think it's 50/50 now in which direction this could go in the near term. I'm sure LONG term prospects will be good though. Argentina for instance could take a while......
Pennylots you have admitted to being wobbly before when SP dropped, looks like you have fallen off the chair with them comments. Just a 10% drop in short term , prob combination of general market and possible perception the audited results are slightly late now and there could be a problem. But they have published results in 3rd week of March previously and all
Stocks drop time to time. I think it was shorts in previous days on low volume, now generally market seen 10% drop it’s mixed feelings. I will be topping up for sure.
Pennylots why on earth would you concoct a story like that, ? " It's a fantasy tail, / RUBBISH" there's been absolutely nothing put out there like that with what you've just stated, " NOTHING AT ALL"
Burfords shares have just fallen along with the USA general market , Apple iPhone sales drop by 24% in China and the big tech stocks / conglomerates blow a fuse, plus you have Warren Buffett stating there's no more reasonably priced targets to buy in America, in other words the market is at its peak where shares tend to sell off somewhat or retreat, " it's healthy" , that tech boom needed bursting somewhat. Plus you have the shorters taking advantage of this well off, nothing to worry about, nothing that Burford has done wrong at all, Burford is fully funded, it wins 90% of its cases year after year in a extremely well calculated process of picking case's in every area of commercial litigation, it's returns can easily find future litigation cases, Burford is sensible staying ahead of its competitors and raising more and more finance to achieve it's dominant position $8 billion according to the industries news home page, Burford is a solid great money making company ,
Let me put it this way ? If Burford offered milei / Argentina to settle our $16 billion dollar award for what we've pencilled this into our accounts for ? Then I'm sure Milei would be quietly celebrating at such a low settlement award, in other words Burford have been extremely cautious with a very low fair value amount pencilled in for our massive ypf case.
So pennylots I believe you might be a little on the alarmist side here at saying it's only a small step for the audited to say Burford is a going concerns, you couldn't get any further from the truth, / $7 or $8 billion of investments and a 90% win rate with these cases ! Definitely makes burford a solid great going company with no concerns unless your carson Block of muddywaters,
Another thing if Trump gets in office, heavens forbid., Well he's on record saying numerous Times America first, he also stated foreign governments must adhere to the American court judgements if they want to do commercial trade with America. So milei might just have to negotiate our settlement award away, I can't see Trump saying Argentina " first " against his own countries commercial interest. Worth remembering .
Burford will at some stage get a substantial negotiated payment plan here. 100% I've no doubt whatsoever.
GLA
Indications are pennylots has called this wrong… again.
Indications are that the auditors are querying the value of the YPF claim in BUR's balance sheet. In that case SP sub £10 is likely. The SEC approved valuation method is being shown up as lipstick on a pig. Capital provision assets would be a difficult sell in a liquidation, not that I am suggesting that as a possibility at this point. Just saying they don't have much readily realisable value. If the auditors are unhappy about YPF, it is a short step for them to question whether BUR is a going concern.
My guess is that a rescue rights issue is needed to stabilise BUR's finances for the foreseeable future. Maybe at £7 a share?
Nearer 2m traded now. Definitely something going on
Wow 1.7M shares traded in US. With UK 30k if you’re lucky in a day wow, what a difference. UK stock market is broke these days.
Could do with some good news soon! Will be adding tomorrow.
Looks like it’s being shorted to me.
Sudden drop of 30c, i can't find any news on BUR though, so not sure if this is just the Nasdaq being down 2%
Taken 1M shares to drop it, must be resistance now or shots have added. BUR seem in no rush to publish results early.