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Seems like someone was eager yesterday some big old trades reported late in the day !!
So true Delacey but sooner or later some news will hit that will impact them and burn tons of shorts which will be fun ;)
"We are a day traders dream atm"
This is why this share isn't going to reach the dizzy heights of £2 anytime soon, unfortunately. Nevermind the £10 end of year people keep banging on about.
Slow steady SP increase will help with stability, a small gain every week as opposed to the SP flying all over the place.
I know big increases over a few days are fun to watch but give me the alternative anyday. LTH, end of the year or Q1 2022 (as someone mentioned earlier) that’s where it’ll be interesting.
Xenor
whilst i appreciate your concern and position, you need to fill your glass up as its always half empty.
you bought in immediately after a FOMO spike in price and we are still consolidating in price along with the rest of the mining fraternity.
In recent weeks we have suffered low liquidity and as such creates a day traders dream scenario.
with everything that is forecast in the pipeline, it will no doubt be exciting with increased volatility and liquidity still to come but the fundamentals are very very strong and positive sentiment will return especially off the back of the green initiative focus at the moment.
focus on the fundamentals for revenue and profit, stop looking at the day to day fluctuations in price and look further forward based on all the information and direction that is out there to view.
if your plan was to hold this for a year or two before taking profits then look at potential revenue and profits that far ahead based on what we know already, it's phenomenal.
GL and ATB
Excellent post JTF.
The only thing I'd add is that we may not have to wait that long for the revenues and profit you speak about to be more visible to the market. ARB publishes monthly updates but these only contain the mining revenues/margins and numbers of coins held, not the full profit figures (including appreciation on holdings, other costs etc.). However, we don't have to wait until next year for these as they also publish interim results in September. This should be the first time the market sees, in black and white, the kind of "phenomenal" figures you refer to.
Whether this is enough to lift and stabilise the SP though is less clear as this share is so influenced by day-trader activity, sentiment and raw emotion (just look at the love-in then hate-in then love-in going on with Musk at the moment).
But whether it is this year or next year (can't see it being longer) one day this share will be traded more on its financials and that it is when I believe we will really reap the benefits of holding. GLA.
@Just_the_facts That's a fair comment but just where are we going to consolidate at? When I bought in around 230p I thought we had consolidated there because the share price was moving up and down with bitcoin. Are we going to consolidate around 150p or go below 100p? You can't time the market. The share needed people buying in after the FOMO otherwise it would only have sellers and plummet. If the price was moving on fundamentals as opposed to day traders, sentiment and Elon Musk I'd be happier.
Bitcoin will fall off a cliff after this year when the bull market ends so expecting to wait until 2022 to profit isn't a reasonable expectation. It all depends on where the floor for bitcoin is after this cycle. Last cycle it fells from 19k to 3k. If it drops to 1/6 again we could be looking at 17k bitcoin if it peaks at 100k. Still profitable for ARB but a lot lower than it is today and I would expect a share price much lower than today if that happens. I know some have predicted a 300k peak but I don't see that as realistic. That's my worry about thinking longterm with this.
Hi Xenor
with regard to consolidation and how low the price can go, i don't know and suspect nobody does but that's the whole point, that different people will have different views and calculations. when these differing views start to consolidate on mass is when sentiment changes direction.
Based on the turmoil this week and the lows from Thursday, i had ARB pegged at a forward looking PE of 5 (based on April results), on the same basis i had MARA at 5 and Riot at 7. The technicals all point to oversold and the miners gained ground on Friday so maybe the bottom is in but who can say for sure.
to be invested in ARB though, if you want to have any reassurance of the potential then you also have to understand BTC and crypto in general, in terms of the whole reason for its existence, crypto/blockchain is changing the global economy and it is only in its infancy stages imho, and as a result of this it obviously has its haters. It is hugely volatile and not for the faint hearted, so if your are used to blue chip stocks with regular dividends and yields of 5, 6, 7% then this is probably not for you.
To understand what MAY happen in this bull run, then take a real close look at the previous main 2 from 2017 and 2013, because if this one follows suit then the high could circa £300k or above and the subsequent drop off to $75k levels, granted that this run might be somewhat less intensive than previous due to current size and mcap of BTC, but again, who knows??
For me personally, i spend a lot of time working on the company fundamentals of projected growth and that is the basis of my investment, i also fundamentally believe in the growth of BTC and crypto so obviously my view is positive for both.
at the moment, ARB is mostly reliant on BTC mining and whilst it would seem that this will remain a significant part of the operation, we can see that diversification is also happening with what the operational use of Texas might be which i am sure will be revealed in the not to distant future.
At the end of the day, you have to decide on your investments in your considered view and make your choices based on that alone, for me I'm in ARB for along time to come, i don't loose sleep over the daily price because what i invested doesn't impact on my daily life and is an accepted risk / reward scenario for which i decided the reward potential far outweighed the risk.
whatever direction you take with this investment i hope it has no regrets for you.
So good luck whichever way you choose, and if you decide to stay invested then strap in cos this ride hasn't even started yet imo :)
ATB
As Buffett once said never buy a share unless you intend to keep it for 10 yrs,I think Arb falls into this category I wonder how many will do so
Agree Just_the_facts. Diversification is part of Argo’s growth strategy and BTC is not just in their sights. We have to remain upbeat with our investment in Argo, if not then what’s the point in investing in the company. There is so some much more to come from Argo and with a positive mindset from the investors I sure it will help us to get there.
@Xenor - “ When I bought in around 230p I thought we had consolidated there because the share price was moving up and down with bitcoin. ”
It’s worth keeping in mind that the SP was not following BTC when it was at 230. It was tracking BTC up to about SP 143-188 (13-14 February) then it shot up much faster than BTC. Then it came down much faster than BTC. I’ve no doubt it’s lower than it should be now and little doubt you’ll see 230 again this year but if it had simply tracked BTC it would probably be somewhere in the 170-190 at the moment. Hopefully it will become less volatile as the business grows.
Xenor, the feeling I’m getting from you posts is that you have no confidence at in with your investment in Argo. Your constant negative posts do not, or will not, help Argo in the slightest. It makes me revisit the question again, why on earth did you invest in a volatile growth stock such as this? If you have no faith in the long term in what you invest in then you should either not have invest in the first instance, or get completely out.
Xenor
Posted in: RMM
Posts: 417
Price: 0.37
No Opinion
RE: Looking Painful For the Spiked!!13 May 2021 11:31
I wonder why he is not deramping on ARB. I got spiked there with a high average of 223p and don't see it getting back to those levels for a long time. Biggest mistake I've made since I started investing. Would love to pull it all out and top up here but the losses are too much. I'm down more in £ value on RMM however but I'm not worried at all about this investment.
I don't have the time to respond to all. When i invested I had every faith in ARB and where it was heading. But I believe my calculations were wrong. I too thought bitcoin could reach 300k this year based on the hype, and that a 20 PE ratio for ARB was right. I don't believe that any more. I lost faith when people went from spamming the board with "hodl for godl" to day trading it. Not really a hodl is it? If people were holding then it wouldn't be a volatile stock. I expected it to follow bitcoin's ups and downs somewhat, and give some exposure to crypto. That was a mistake and I should have invested in crypto directly. Getting spiked was a mistake, I should have waited for it to come back down to earth. I got sucked in during the placing and bought some for 200p. Then averaged up afterwards. Another mistake. Sentiment changed after that placing. I'm probably the only person who bought shares in that placing and sold them for a loss.
Also regarding the comment on RMM. Someone asked the resident troll about how their ARB investment is going as ARB is their biggest holding. So I mentioned my misfortune here. I figure if he's deramping a falling share there then why not here.
I'm going to stop being negative on this board from this point forward - and feel free to call me out on it if I go back on my word. I agree my negativity isn't helping sentiment. I want ARB to succeed and I want to sell the majority of my shares without losing too much. If we see 190-200p again I'm reducing. This stock is too volatile/traded for my liking but I'd like to leave a bit in to recover losses if it spikes high again.
@xenor, this post isn't helpful and is not going to help sentiment. I appreciate that you have lost faith, but other than that disagree with most of what you have said. I still believe the bull run will resume as soon as btc surpasses 53300, by that time however you could have moved on.
Speel, Xenor is allowed to disagree.....or isn’t he?
I think Xenor has sold already at a loss and would hate to see it rise.
Of cause Pearls! Neither of us know what is going to happen, but if I was invested unlike you, I would keep stump about what I felt if it was a feeling and not daya ecause I wouldn't want to affect sentiment. Havw you invested in Bitstamp yet?
On the whole I feel a similar way to you Xenor but I don't see what benefit it is to you, to Argo, to anyone to keep airing these views. These long posts of yours are quite self-indulgent and seem more of a personal airing but they start to get a bit tedious!
I hope you got the message the predictive text is making me seem illiterate!
A few typos on my part to but I hope you got the message! All the best and I'm sure you'll get your 190 exit price eventually!
@Xenor - one of the (many) good things about ARB is that doesn't need BTC to go any sort of run to make decent profits, let alone get anywhere near the dizzy heights of $300,000.
At current BTC levels it is making a mining margin of nearly £6m per month and this is still £4m-£5m after allowing for all the other costs that I'm aware of. If right this gives ,even with no BTC increases, a PE ratio that is already well under 20. And that's before the improved mining capacity that kicks in very shortly. Of course what the 'right' PE is for ARB is a matter of opinion and whether the SP actually moves to give that PE ratio is even more questionable given the way the share price has been buffeted lately.
So the one thing I am confident about is the profitability - just hope the SP catches up with it sooner rather than later.
Pearls is back - Have you only just recovered from the riveting price and share movement of your holdings yesterday ? Normally People would pay to watch such thrilling action, In the same way I’d pay to watch cricket during a monsoon.
Or you have oldies like me who believe in btc and the companies fundamentals who have averaged up and believe that xenor will see profit in the median term. I will check in Monday now and see if my Nasdaq prediction was right.
whether you have one share or a million in a company, you are entitled to your view and opinion regardless.
if we all thought the same then ARB price would either be on the moon or worth nothing, so for me good debate in either direction doesn't hurt.
@Xenor, even though our views on ARB differ i none the less appreciate your post as a genuine investor.
thanks and good luck .
I wasn't expecting a quick profit, but I wasn't expecting a quick loss either. I mean people don't buy shares with the intention of seeing them plummet afterwards. It looked good on paper. Rising bitcoin (until recently), Pluto, NASDAQ, Texas. It's hard to see where it's going wrong. I reasonably expected to make a profit at some point this year, I wouldn't risk it otherwise.
But yeah, negativity affects sentiment so let's dream of rainbows and pots of gold instead. Maybe more people will want to buy shares then. Even the best stocks don't rise if people don't buy them. Seeing that in other stocks I'm invested in as well. Undervalued, low volume, more sellers than buyers.